Why is there such a big difference between the SpaceX pre-disc contracts on every exchange

Original Odaily Daily@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

By Azuma@azuma ethI'm not sure

SpaceX's trillions of super IPOs are finally coming。

You opened the exchange and tried to open the warehouse layout before the IPO, but suddenly you found out that the money was on the SPCX interim report 169 USDT, OKX on the SPCX interim report 155 USDT, Hyperliquid on the SPCX interim report 154 USDC. The price of each of the three platforms ' pre-departure contracts is different, especially since the difference between the price of the coin and that of the latter two is even greater

In short, the reason for this isThis is partly due to the fact that different platforms have separate price discovery mechanisms, but more critically because equity data and valuation conversion methods are not identical across platforms。

First of all, whether coins, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid, currently on line, SAPX is not a real stock of SpaceX, but a derivative designed around future IPO prices。These products will eventually be settled on the basis of market value and equity data after SpaceX IPO, and therefore their prices are essentially a mapping of the market's expectations for the final valuation of SpaceX, and because SpaceX is not on the market for the time being, there is no defined anchor standard for these anticipated prices. This uncertainty is the source of the current market price differentials。

Differences in equity data between the three main exchanges

We're looking back at the historical announcements of the SpaceX prediscretion contracts on the three platforms。

OKX WENT ONLINE ON MAY 7TH WITH THE SPACEX PRE-DISCRETION CONTRACT, WITH AN INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 1 BILLION SHARES, SO THAT WHEN IT CAME ONLINE, THE SPACEX CONTRACT PRICE WAS CONSISTENTLY HIGHER THAN 2000 USDTSubsequently, on 2 June, OKX based on SpaceX S-1, adjusted the number of equity shares to 12,522 million shares(Odaily Daily Note: This adjustment process is called Rebase, which will be followed below)THE SPCX CONTRACT PRICE HAS ALSO BEEN “ADJUSTED” TO 150 - 200 USDT。

On May 17th, Hyperliquid went online from HIP-3 Market Trade.xyz on the SAPX pre-discretion contractIn terms of equity calibre, Trade.xyz initially disclosed some 118.77 billion shares based on private market transaction data, but communities found that Trade.xyz had subsequently removed the description from the file。

IT WAS A PRE-CLOSURE CONTRACT DEAL WITH SPCX ON MAY 21, WITH AN INITIAL EQUITY OF 118.77 BILLION SHARESOn the evening of 8 June, it was announced that the PCX Rebase would be carried out and that the number of equity shares would be adjusted directly to the 13.38 billion units disclosed in the latest IPO plan (compared to the 12.22 billion units in S-1, added to the 556 million additional IPO shares) and that the Rebase would be implemented tomorrow afternoon at 16.30 p.m. Beijing time。

In conclusion, the situation is clear:

• OKX is currently using equity data of 12,522 million shares in S-1, and it is not yet clear whether it will follow up again
• Hyperliquid (Trade.xyz) had disclosed the use of 118.77 billion shares, but since the relevant expression had been deleted, market projections for follow-up were extremely unlikely and might implicitly track the actual equity
• The current equity data used for coin is 118.77 billion shares, but tomorrow it will be rebase to 130.80 billion shares。

Comparison of actual prices of the three platforms

WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED EQUITY DATA, IT IS POSSIBLE TO CALCULATE THE “REAL PRICE” OF THE ACTUAL RESPONSE OF THE SPCX PRE-BOARDING CONTRACT ON THE BASIS OF REAL-TIME PRICES。

As of 17:00 Beijing time, real-time offers for SAPX prediscretion contracts were 169.62 USDT, 155.35 USDT and 154.62 USDC, respectively。

Taking this static data, combined with previous equity data, the following calculations can be made:

• (a) Quetzal 16962 USDT, to be adjusted to 154.2 USDT after completion of Rebase tomorrow
• OKX Suspended 155.35 USDT and if re-executed Rebase (adjusted to 13.38 billion equity), the corresponding price would be 148.7 USDT
• Hyperliquid Supra 154.62 USDC, the corresponding price, if executed, is 140.3 USDC。

At first glance, isn't that the cheapest price on Hyperliquid? Don't worry! The situation isThe market expects that OKX and Hyperliquid will not go to Rebase until SpaceX completes IPO。

The reason for OKX is that Rebase has already taken place once and that the official document for the pre-disk contract refers only to "Rebase will be based on S-1 equity data" and this is now complete。

For Hyperliquid, reference can be made to the analysis of the philosophie, Silicon-based Ray (X:@limxn6), and the possibility of subsequent Rebase is extremely low。

So what's happening now is that although the prices after OkX and Hyperliquid appear to be very attractive, they probably don't exist at all。

More realistic price comparisons should be:Currency (154.2 USDT) & lt; Hyperliquid (154.62 USDC) & lt; OKX (155.35 USDT)。

Two conclusions can be drawn here。One is that there is little arbitrage between OKX and Hyperliquid prices compared to the price of the coin (which was once as high as 10 per cent after the announcement of Rebase last night); the other is that the price premium for OKX and Hyperliquid is still attributable to the fact that the market has priced its minimal rebase potential, and that the higher price of OKX means that it is more likely than that of Hyperliquid。

Take the same thing with a different ruler

As SpaceX IPO approaches, and market rules become clearer, the best arbitrage window may have passedBUT FOR ORDINARY INVESTORS, THE PRICE GAME AROUND SPCX PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT SAMPLE OF THE LOGIC OF PRE-DISCRETION MARKET OPERATIONS。

Many people are used to interpreting the pre-award contract price as a “future stock price”, but it is not hard to see that the pre-award market transaction is more than a simple number. The price is followed by both market judgement of the company ' s future valuation and exchange product design, equity-calibre choice and participant expectations of changes in rules。

In other words, when you see a different offer from the SPCX on the coin, OKX, HyperliquidThey do not necessarily mean that there is a great divergence in the market ' s perception of SpaceX, and it is more likely that the same target is measured with different feet。