The Oscar Forward: Who are the big households in the forecast market
The best film awards are the most traded; the best male protagonists are the strongest; the best director, the leading woman, the original script award, or the "Finance Bureau"。
Original title: The Oscar Forward: Who are the big households in the forecast market
Original by Asher, Odaily Daily Planet
The ceremonial ceremony of the 98th Oscar Award will take place on 15 March 2026. As the award night approaches, the discussion on who will win the award is rising rapidly。
In addition to the predictions of traditional media, film critics and fans, the encrypted forecast market is giving a set of answers。So, in the eyes of forecast market participants, who are the most likely to spend the Oscar awards this year
Next, Odaily Daily, based on Pollymarket's latest market data, combes the winnings of each award. At the same time, potential trading opportunities were identified for the analysis of the betting of front-line addresses for the events。
The Best Film Award: "War One Again" is now number one at 76% real time
Polymarket counter event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, over $29 million
links: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picure-winner。
At present, One Battle After Another is in first place with a real-time probability of 75%, and Sinners is in second place with a 20% probability。
:: Analysis of warehouse addresses
YES FIRST ADDRESS:0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, with a winning rate of 89.7% and YES averaged 54.8 cents。
This post is part of our special coverage Syria Protests 20110x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, the address 5 days ago bought nearly 10000 YES slots at 74 cents, and the current only holdout of "war I again" will receive the Best Film Award for a single event。
Best actor film award: Michael B. Jordan is in first place at a real-time rate of 57%
Polymarket counter event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume close to $7 million
links: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner。
At present, Michael B. Jordan is ranked first in the Best Actor Film Award with a real-time probability of 57 per cent, and Timothy Chalamet ranks second, with a probability of 34 per cent。
It's worth mentioningBefore this month ' s 7th anniversary, Timothy Chalamet ' s chances of winning a prize had been at the top and had been up to 80%。
:: Analysis of warehouse addresses
Michael B. Jordan0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, the address won only 48 per cent and recorded a negative gain or loss of $0.2 million。
Michael B. Jordan0xafbaeeda63f31202759eff78126e49addfe61b, with a 53 per cent pass and a historical gain or loss of $172,000。
Timothée Chalamet holds the first address:0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dd0d26dbe2333648829271, also the first address of Michael B. Jordan ' s warehouse YES, which can be seen as a bet that Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Charamet will receive the Best Master Award。
No. 1 address:0x9d84ce0306f8551efef1680475f0f1dc1344, the address won 63 per cent and historical gain or loss was $2.82 million。
Best Directed Award: Paul Thomas Anderson is now number one at 91% real time
Polymarket counter event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume close to $5 million
links: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner。
At present, Paul Thomas Anderson is at the top of the Best Directorship Award with a real-time probability of 94 per cent, which, in terms of probability, is almost unsuspecting, or the "Finance Bureau"。
:: Analysis of warehouse addresses
Paul Thomas Anderson0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10b76d9742d922d7dec4, which won 83.6 per cent, and the average price of Paul Thomas Anderson ' s warehouse YES was 93 cents。
Best heroine film award: Jessie Buckley is in first place at 97% real time
Polymarket counter event: Oscars 2026: Best Asset Winner, trading in excess of $1.5 million
links: https://polymark.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner。
Now, in the Best Actress Film AwardJessie Buckley is now at 97% real-time probabilityIn terms of probability, the award is also almost non-suspensive, or “the Treasury”。
Other popular awards
In addition, higher-heat awards were discussed:
I. The Best Female Plus Award(Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supplening-actress-winner), Amy Madigan is in first place at a real-time rate of 52%; Teyana Taylor ranks second, with a probability of 26%; and Wunmi Mosaku ranks third, with a probability of 21%。
II. The Best Men ' s Plus Award(Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supplening-actor-winner), Sean Penn is in first place at a real-time rate of 73 per cent; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second, with a probability of 19 per cent; Delroy Lindo ranks third, with a probability of 7 per cent。
III. Best Photography Awards(Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-minematography-winner), One Battle After Another, with a real-time recovery rate of 73 per cent; Sinners ranked second with a 20 per cent probability。
IV. Best original script award(Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), Sinners are in first place at a real-time rate of 96 per cent, or "the Treasury"。
