TL, DR

• In October 2025, when the United States entered a monetary easing cycle, the Fed lowered and suspended interest rates, but economic recovery remained weak, with high inflation, weak job markets, low consumer confidence and a combination of government and external risks affecting growth. Inflation has fallen, but remains above target, and weak employment and fiscal constraints have weakened the short-term pull of easing policies on consumption and investment. Overall, the United States was in the early stages of a liberal cycle and had an improved policy environment, but uncertainty about inflation, employment and external risks continued to put pressure on economic recovery。

• In October, the encryption market experienced sharp fluctuations, with trading surged to a peak of $42.82 billion during the “10/11” crash, and since then the delivery has subsided, with a weak financial face and a reduced risk preference. The overall market value declined slightly by 0.57 per cent from the previous month, maintaining the shock after a sharp retreat, with cautious market sentiment and inadequate incremental funding. The new online tokens are dominated by infrastructure, DeFi and AI projects, with short-term but limited continuity in Chinese-language meme。

• IN OCTOBER, AFTER NET INFLOWS OF $5.55 BILLION AND $1.01 BILLION, RESPECTIVELY, FROM BITCOIN AND THE ETHERPORT CASH, MARKET CONFIDENCE WAS RESTORED AFTER THE BLACK SWAN INCIDENT, BUT THE WHOLE REMAINED CAUTIOUS. TOTAL CURRENCY FLOWS INCREASED BY $9.38 BILLION, WITH USDT AND USDC BECOMING THE MAIN SOURCE OF INCREMENTS, WHILE USDE FLOWS DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY BY 31.1 PER CENT AS A RESULT OF THE BREAKAWAY EVENTS。

• BITCOIN'S SHORT-TERM KINETIC ENERGY WAS REDUCED AND PRICES WERE NOT STEADY FOR 50 DAYS SMA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CONVULSED NEAR EMA ON 20TH, AND COULD ACCELERATE DOWN TO $100,000 IF IT FALLS THROUGH $107,000 OF SUPPORT, WHILE $118,000 ABOVE IS A KEY RESISTANCE. THE WHOLE OF THE FACTORY IS WEAK AND THE PRICE IS DOWN TO 50 DAYS BELOW THE SMA, AND IF THE FALL OF THE TRIANGLE SUPPORTS COULD GO FURTHER DOWN TO $3,350; IF IT RETURNS TO THE TOP OF THE SMA ON 50 DAYS, MANY OF IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A REBOUND, BUT THE UPPER RESISTANCE REMAINS STRONG. IN THE ABSENCE OF A STEADY 20-DAY EMA, IT IS CLEAR THAT SOLANA ' S AIR-CAW SAWS, IF IT BREAKS THROUGH AND SECURES THE UPPER LINE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP TO THE BARRIER LINE OF THE ROUTE, AND THAT $190 FALLS TO THE ADVANTAGE OF THE EMPTY HEAD, MAY FALL BACK TO $177 OR EVEN BELOW THE TEST CORRIDOR。

• The encrypted market was the largest in history in October, with a sharp drop in the case of Bitcoin, the Intra-Ramp and the USDe anchorages of Bitcoin, the ETA and Yamatoco, with a net-wide bursting of $19.1 billion, indicating systematic leverage risk exposure. The Chinese-language meme currency is a hot spot in the short-term boom and attracts a large number of new traders for projects such as Money Ann and Solana and Base Ecology. After the introduction of the 402 agreement, market concerns were raised, and the price of the project in question surged in the short term, but then fell, indicating a concentrated and volatile innovation concept。

• It is expected that the market will continue to expand faster next month, with projects such as Polymarket, Kalshi and Truth Predict leading to an increase in industry mobility and interest and a simultaneous acceleration of capital and public-chain ecological layouts. While the encryption market suffered structural damage following the black swan incident of 11 October, trade easing expectations and policy gains supported the return of short-term risk assets. The follow-up needs to focus on forecasting the performance of new market projects, trade progress between China and the United States, changes in the United States dollar and liquidity environment, and the risks of encrypted market leverage。

1. Macro perspective

In October 2025, the United States economy entered a liberal cycle, but the resilience remained weak. The Federal Reserve ' s successive interest rate cuts and the suspension of the contraction, and the shift in policy focus from inflation repression to steady growth and job security reflect concerns about the economic slowdown. Inflation remains high, with a persistent weakness in the job market, declining consumer confidence, government stagnation and a combination of external risks, bringing the economy to a state of “lax policies and no growth”. Overall, the United States is in the early stages of a cycle, with an improved policy environment but macro-repair taking time。

Policy shift

In October, the Fed again reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, lowered federal fund interest rates to 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent, and announced that it would suspend the scale in order to release liquidity and enhance easing. This marks an overall shift in monetary policy towards growth orientation. The current logic of decision-making emphasizes the priority of steady growth, and the Fed believes that inflation risks are relatively manageable and that job deterioration and fiscal uncertainty are more pressing challenges. Markets are expected to reduce interest rates again in the course of the year, but policy transfer will take time to quickly stimulate consumption and business investment in the short term。

Inflation remains above target

THE CPI ROSE BY 3.0 PER CENT IN SEPTEMBER AND THE CORE CPI BY 3.0 PER CENT, WHICH WAS BELOW EXPECTATIONS BUT ABOVE THE FEDERAL RESERVE TARGET OF 2 PER CENT. THE PRICE INCREASES FOR FOOD, HOUSING AND SERVICES REMAINED STRONG, SUGGESTING THAT DOMESTIC INFLATION HAD NOT YET BEEN FULLY ELIMINATED. IN HIS STATEMENT, POWELL STRESSED THAT WHILE INFLATION WAS MODERATE, POLICIES COULD NOT BE TOO EARLY TO RELAX THEIR VIGILANCE. IF INFLATION SLOWS DOWN, THE FED MAY DELAY FURTHER EASING. INFLATION IS MANAGEABLE, BUT THE TARGET AREAS HAVE NOT YET BEEN REACHED。

Further weakening of the job market

The rapid cooling of the labour market has been a central incentive for easing this round. Due to the suspension of the United States Government, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of September non-farm employment data, leaving the market without critical reference. The latest available August data show that employment growth slowed significantly, with only 22,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, in June, the data were revised downwards to negative growth. Weak labour markets are weakening the support of consumption and services and exacerbating expectations of household income. There is widespread concern in the market that, if employment continues to deteriorate, the economy will fall into deeper growth decline, forcing the Fed to adopt more radical easing measures。

Political, financial and external risks remain

The suspension of the United States Government ' s budget and the non-payment of part of its budget had weakened fiscal spending and data transparency. The persistence of geotechnical friction, including tensions in the Middle East and technological conflicts between the United States and China, increases the risk premium. Fiscal and external uncertainties have weakened the marginal effectiveness of monetary easing and slowed the pace of market recovery. While easing provides short-term support, policy transfer routes are blocked and business confidence and long-term investment rebound are limited。

Outlook

The United States was in the early stages of an easing cycle, with an improved policy environment but a fragile economic recovery. The focus in the future is on whether inflation will continue to fall, whether employment will be stable and whether easing policies will be effective in channelling it to consumption and investment. Fiscal deadlocks, geo-risks and market confidence remain major uncertainties。

 

Overview of the encryption market

Analysis of currency data

volume of transactions & daily growth rate

According to CoinGecko, as of 27 October, the total volume of transactions in the encrypted market had fluctuated significantly, with a sharp rise in market sentiment during the “10/11” collapse, with transactions soaring to $42.8 billion, a 106 per cent increase in the ring ratio, peaking in the following month, with funds concentrated in the short term in panic and games. Apart from this phase, overall market delivery has been flattening, with most time-trading between $150 billion and $200 billion, indicating a decline in investor risk preferences and a cautious mood. There is a slight weakening of the financial landscape and a lack of sustained incremental capital entry in the market, which still needs to be driven in the short term by macro- and policy-oriented factors to restore greater mobility。

market value for full market & daily growth

According to CoinGecko, as at 27 October, the total market value of encrypted currencies was $394 trillion, a decrease of 0.57 per cent compared to the previous month, and the total market value of encrypted currencies continued to rise slightly between the beginning of the month and 9 October, from $396 trillion to $4.32 trillion, reflecting a gradual reversal of the funds over time. However, the collapse of the market from 10 to 11 October, with market value falling by more than 9 per cent a day, was the largest withdrawal during the month, indicating a panic flight of funds in the “10/11” scenario. The market then rebounded briefly, with a peak of about 5.7 per cent, but the overall rebound was limited, with a market value of between $3.7 trillion and $3.9 trillion. Overall, the market is still in a state of shock as a result of drastic adjustments, increased financial expectations and a lack of willingness to enter the field with additional funding。

A new hot coin in October

In October, hot-lined coins focused mainly on infrastructure, DeFi and AI tracks, while the overall focus remained on VC background projects. Projects such as Enso, Recall, Falcon Finance, Yield Basis, and ZEROBASE have been prominent and have become more active on-line. In addition, the Chinese-language meme plate, driven by a short-term rise in temperature by the “Biann Life” effect and the CZ Shouting Line, has furthered its emotional fermentation。

3 Data analysis on the chain

BTC, ETH ETF INFLOW AND EXIT ANALYSIS

BTC SPOT ETF NET INFLOWS IN OCTOBER $5.55 BILLION
IN OCTOBER, THE SPOT IN BITCOIN ETF CONTINUED ITS TREND OF INFLOWS, REACHING A NET MONTHLY INFLOW OF $5.55 BILLION, WITH TOTAL ASSETS INCREASING BY 3.8 PER CENT TO $149.9 BILLION. BITCOIN PRICES ROSE SLIGHTLY TO $110,070 FROM $108,936 AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER, A 1 PER CENT INCREASE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKET HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE BLACK SWAN OF 11 OCTOBER, THE OVERALL CHANGE REMAINS LOW。

NET ETH SPOT ETF INFLOWS IN OCTOBER
IN OCTOBER, ETF RECORDED A NET INFLOW OF APPROXIMATELY $1.01 BILLION, INCREASING THE TOTAL ASSET SIZE TO $26.6 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF 3.9 PER CENT. THE ETH PRICE ROSE FROM $3839 TO $3904, AN INCREASE OF 1.69 PER CENT。

 

Analysis of inflows and outflows of stable currencies

Total stable currency flows surged by $9.38 billion in October

WHILE THE STABLE CURRENCY MARKET AS A WHOLE REMAINED INFLOW AND GROWING IN OCTOBER, MARKET CONFIDENCE AFFECTED BY THE BLACK SWAN ON 11 OCTOBER WAS SEVERELY UNDERMINED. OF THESE, IN PARTICULAR, USDE, WHERE PRICE DE-CONSTRUCTION IN BLACK SWANS LED THE MARKET TO SUSPECT THAT ITS ALGORITHMS WERE STABLE CURRENCY MECHANISMS, RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN CIRCULATION OF NEARLY 31.1 PER CENT. IN OTHER AREAS, THE TOTAL VOLUME OF STABLE CURRENCY FLOWS INCREASED BY $9.38 BILLION TO $28.250 BILLION. THE ONE-MONTH INCREASE OF $10.15 BILLION IN UDTT CONTINUES TO BE AT THE TOP. THE USDC (+2.23 BILLION) IS ALSO THE MAIN SOURCE OF GROWTH。

Price analysis of mainstream currencies

BTC PRICE CHANGE ANALYSIS


BITCOIN WAS UNABLE TO STAND STEADY ABOVE THE 50-DAY SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE LINE (SMA, $114,278), WHICH TRIGGERED A NEW PUSH, BRINGING THE PRICE BACK BELOW THE 20-DAY INDEX MOVING AVERAGE LINE (EMA, $112,347). THIS INDICATES THAT SHORT-LINE KINETIC ENERGY IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND MARKET SENTIMENT IS BECOMING CAUTIOUS. IF THE BTC CLOSING PRICE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW EMA 20 DAYS, THE EMPTY HEAD MAY BE ABLE TO PRESS THE BTC/USDT PRICE TO A CRITICAL SUPPORTING POSITION OF $107,000. MULTIPLE HEADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FULLY DEFENDED IN THIS POSITION, BECAUSE ONCE THE SUPPORT IS LOST, THE “TWO-TOP” FORM WILL BE CONFIRMED OR THE PRICE WILL ACCELERATE DOWN TO THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL OF $100,000。

ON THE UPPER SIDE, $118,000 REMAINS AN IMPORTANT RESISTANCE TO MULTIPLE ATTACKS. IF PRICES CAN BREAK AND STABILIZE ABOVE THAT LEVEL, STRONG UPWARD ACTION WILL BE RELEASED, PROMPTING THE BTC TO LAUNCH A SHOCK AT A HISTORICAL HIGH POINT OF $126,199. PRIOR TO THIS, THE MARKET MAY MAINTAIN A PATTERN OF SHOCK NEAR THE MEAN LINE, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY。

 

ANALYSIS OF ETH PRICE CHANGES

AFTER TOUCHING 50 DAYS OF SMA ($4,220), THE ETA FELL AGAIN, SHOWING THAT THE EMPTY AREAS REMAINED HIGH AND THE OVERALL TREND REMAINED WEAK. CURRENT PRICES ARE APPROACHING THE BACKBONE OF THE DECLINE IN THE TRIANGLE, WHICH IS KEY TO DETERMINING THE SHORT-TERM DIRECTION. ONCE THE SUPPORT IS EFFECTIVELY BROKEN, ETH/USDT MAY GO FURTHER DOWN TO $3,350 OR EVEN LOWER。

THE ABILITY OF MULTIPLE HEADS TO RECOVER ABOVE THE 50-DAY SMA MEANS THAT SHORT-LINE KINETIC ENERGY IS RECOVERING. AT THAT TIME, PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF THE DECLINING TRIANGLE, WHERE SALES PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A NEW UPWARD TREND AND RECOGNITION OF MEDIUM-TERM REVERSE SIGNALS WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF THE ETHERJECT IS ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY BREAK THROUGH THE RESISTANCE LINE AND SECURE ABOVE THE STATION。

ANALYSIS OF SOL PRICE CHANGES

SOLANA ONCE BROKE THE EMA OF 20 DAYS ($196), BUT WAS UNABLE TO STABILIZE THE INCREASE, INDICATING A LACK OF HIGH PURCHASING POWER. THE CURRENT 20-DAY CONVERGENCE OF EMA AND THE FLUCTUATIONS IN RSI INDICATORS NEAR THE NEUTRAL AREA INDICATE THAT BOTH SIDES ARE IN A STATE OF CHAINSAWING. IF THE BUYER WERE ABLE TO PUSH THE PRICE AND KEEP IT STEADY ON EMA 20, SOL/USDT WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER UP TO THE CORRIDOR BARRIER LINE, AND SUCCESSFUL BREAKTHROUGHS IN THE REGION WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE MARKET OUTLOOK。

CONVERSELY, A FALL OF $190 WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO DOMINANCE. IN THIS CASE, SOL MAY RETURN TO $177 AND FURTHER TEST THE LOWER SUPPORT OF THE UPLINK. SUPPORTED AND STABLE HERE MAY MEAN THAT FUNDS BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE AT A LOW LEVEL; BUT IF SUPPORT FAILS, THE ADJUSTMENT MAY BE SCALED UP。

This month's hotspot events

The encrypted market is the largest clearing ever, and the loss of Tremple and USDe anchor caused a chain crash

On the evening of 10 October, the President of the United States, Trump, announced a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, effective 1 November, and the cancellation of the US-China meeting scheduled for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which triggered sharp fluctuations in global financial markets. The United States stock had gone up and down, the Dow Jones Industrial Index had dropped by 887 points once, and the NASDAQ Index had fallen by more than 3.5 per cent. The ripple effect of the risk asset chain, the encryption market experienced a sharp fall in hours, with Bitcoin falling to $102,000 at a time, reaching a minimum of $3,392 in the fare, and a net-wide burst of $19.1 billion, a record high. According to Coinglass, there are more than 1.62 million people worldwide who have been bombarded, of whom $1.6 billion are single-bombed and nearly $2.5 billion are empty single-bombed. The impact was most severe, with more than 80 per cent of the decline, and some small coins were close to zero, with USDe ' s stable currency at a time when it had broken anchor to $0.6 and then recovered to more than $0.99。

The current market crash was triggered not only by macroeconomic policy shocks, but also by systemic risks of financial shortfalls for marketers. After the fall of Jump, market traders took on a large number of projects that were originally serviced by Jump, but with limited funding, priority was given to the Tier0 and Tier1 large projects, resulting in the loss of support for small banknotes in the market boom. High interest-cycle lending by the USDE is being centralized under extreme pressure, increasing its leverage, triggering a lock-in, further exacerbating market panic。

 

chinese meme

At the beginning of October 2025, the founder of the Union of Bien-Ann made a statement on social media, “Leave your life in peace”, which unexpectedly ignited the creativity of the Chinese encrypted community and inspired the production of a meme called “Bian-a-life”. This concept is rapidly fermenting with the help of community communication and KOL, and in just a few days the market value has soared to $500 million, increasing as much as 6,000 times, creating a phenomenon-level hotspot。According to DeFiLlama, BNB-chain DEX-day transactions surged to $6.05 billion, attracting over 100,000 new traders。

It is noteworthy that the main meme chains of Solana and Base have also recently become more hot in Chinese. Solana officially announced that his Chinese name was Solara, which derived the relevant Chinese meme Solara. Base's life market value also exceeded millions, and there were some small market values in Chinese for meme on Base. It appears that Chinese-language meme has taken up a position in the encryption market, from the life of Bianan to the sanctuaries and the small size of the customer service. With the continued expansion of the BSC ecology and the involvement of more creators, it is expected that more new Meme projects will emerge that are inspired by Chinese topics, images of people or the Internet。

 

x 402 protocols

x402 The AI payment agreement was launched jointly by Coinbase and Cloudflare, inspired by the long-unenabled HTTP status code “402 Payment Required”. The core innovation of the protocol is to embed the payment logic into the web-based interactive process so that payments become part of Internet communications and create a new pattern of payment as web-based interaction. Through x402, AI Agent, API and Web applications, immediate stabilization currency payments can be directly completed in standard HTTP requests. Due to natural support for stabilization currency, small high frequency and low delay, x402 is suitable for AI Agent to be called as data, tools, calculators and buy as soon as possible, and allows Web2 services to be settled on a very small modified access chain without having to bypass multiple thresholds for registration, mailboxes or complex signatures。

Although the concept of x402 became the focus of market discourse within two days of its introduction, leading to large price increases for several related projects, typical of which, such as PING, rose nearly 20 times in two days, with a market value of $80 million at one time and a high value of $70 million for Payai. But the heat fell quickly after a week. Several popular projects show a depth of almost 80 per cent from high points. However, this concept has not receded. With the introduction of new coins, such as Kite, Pieverse and others, market interest in x402 ecology is expected to ignite again。

 

Next month's outlook

Forecasting the market for accelerated expansion

In 2024-2025, the projected market track ushered in an explosive growth phase. The “two-leading” industry, represented by Polymarket and Kalshi, continues to lead operations with a daily average of over $100 million, with cumulative transactions of tens of billions of dollars. At the capital level, Polymarket and Kalshi completed a new round of financing with a valuation of about $9 billion and $5 billion, respectively, marking a critical turning point in predicting that markets are moving from marginal innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure。

In October, Trump-owned media TMTTG announced the official entry into the forecast market through the Truth Social platform to launch the Truth Predict service. This will not only further expand the influence of projected markets in the political and public sphere in the United States, but may also be a landmark event in the integration of traditional social media with encrypted forecasts of markets. At the same time, capital is accelerating in step with the ecological layout of the public chain. YZI Labs has invested continuously this month in two forecast market projects — Opinion and Apro; the forecast market agreement with Coinbase, Limits, was officially issued this month, with a current market value of approximately $350 million. Active entry into mainstream institutions and head ecology means that markets are projected to shift from early “encrypted crowd trials” to the next generation of financial market infrastructure, centred on liquidity, compliance and composition. The follow-up needs to focus on the market performance of Limitless, Opinion (not issued) and Apro, among other projects, may lead to new hot spots of discussion in the absence of current market narratives。

 

The market resumed after the black swan on October 11th

Since the “black swan” events on the market on 11 October, the encryption market has become significantly structurally damaged and is likely to remain highly volatile and high-risk in the short term. On 30 October, Trump and Xi met to ease tensions between China and the United States; the following day, the United States Senate adopted a resolution by 51 votes in favour and 47 against, with the aim of ending the comprehensive tariff policy that Trump had applied globally. This change at the policy level is a positive signal for the market, and it is expected that trade preferences will be released to ease expectations and improve risk. At the same time, however, structural damage has not been immediately repaired: while the tariff system has been “rejected” by Parliament, the actual level of implementation and the US-China Comprehensive Trade Agreement remain uncertain, and the location of policies remains uncertain; andThe suspension of the United States Government ' s budget and the non-payment of part of its budget had weakened fiscal spending and data transparency。While the encrypted market is highly dependent on macro-liquidity, the United States dollar is weak, geopolitical and regulatory expectations, multiple variables continue to ferment。

In follow-up, if trade relations really warmed and led to the recovery of the real economy, they could provide a trigger for the “return of risky assets” of encrypted assets; if policies are lagging behind or new frictions re-emerge, they could still trigger a reversal of funds and markets. In this context, attention should be focused on: first, progress in trade negotiations between China and the United States and a specific schedule for tariff removal/restoration; secondly, the movement of the dollar, changes in the liquidity environment, in particular the transmission effects of monetary and foreign exchange policies in the United States; and thirdly, leverage use and liquidity risks in the encrypted market, given that, in a structurally impaired environment, the passivity of leverage can easily trigger a chain reaction。