AFTER THE PREMIUM HAS BEEN RESET, MTR IS COMING IN
By Chloe, Challenger
When bitcoin prices retreated from historical highs by 30 per cent and the spot ETF fell into a net outflow trap for three months in a row, the world’s largest Bitcoin strategic reserve company, Strategy, turned the clock upside-down into a mad addition of over $3.7 billion a month. At the same time, its stock MSTR price has undergone a sharp correction of over 60%, and mNAV has also been reduced from 2.4 to 1.07 in the rational compartment. This paper will take into account the weak state of macro-data and institutional levels, and will examine the three future scenarios of Strategy in different ways, and is the best MTR entry point at the moment the premium bubble disappears
Strategy, reverse plus, buy BTC on a single month, over $3.7 billion
Since October 2025, when Bitcoin had reached a record high of $126,000, it came back to a sharp retreat, which now reached around $88,000, a 30 per cent drop. However, the amendment did not shake the will of the world’s largest Bitcoin Reserve Company, Strategy, which continued to buy at a more aggressive pace in early 2026, demonstrating its high confidence in the global market。
According to Bitcoin Strategy TrackerDataIn January 2026 alone, Strategy bought over 40,000 bitcoins. In particular, within a short two-week period between 6 January and 20 January, 35,932 bitcoins were purchased in two instalments at an average purchase price of between $91,500 and $95,300. Statistics show that Strategy invested a total of $3.7 billion in January; as at 27 January, 712,647 bitcoins had accumulated on its balance sheet, with an overall average purchase cost of $76,038。
Apart from scrambling in the spot market, Strategy is also active in extending influence to European markets. A number of financial institutions have launched leveraged products linked to Strategy (MSTR) at major European exchanges in an attempt to absorb traditional capital across the Atlantic. On the other hand, the interest of leading global financial institutions in holding the warehouse MSTR has also increased significantly, with the recently revealed holding of Strategy shares by the asset management giant Vanguard Group Fund; and the United States Employees Retirement Fund in Louisiana, as well as the Japanese financial giant Sanai Friends Trust, all of which have shown that MSTR has been incorporated into the portfolio in recent reports。
Bitcoin structural weakness and institutional wait
However, Strategy ' s passion buys and many good news have not been able to dispel the overall chill of the market. For investors, the current macrodata presents a clear demand gap:
BITCOIN SPOT ETF THREE MONTHS IN A ROW NET OUTFLOWS:Since November 2025, all-American bitcoin cash ETF has been caught in a three-month period of haemorrhaging, consisting of a net outflow of up to $3.38 billion in November, and a net outflow of $1.09 billion in December, although the rate of outflows slowed to $111 million in January 2026, the trend of outflows has not ended. This shows the continued evacuation of mainstream Wall Street funds during this period, in stark contrast to Strategy's negative build-up。
Bitcoin's treasury is sporadic, uneven:Glassnode reported thatRecent corporate capital inflows have been concentrated in individual event-driven transactions rather than in the general accumulation of funds. The figure below shows that the buyout was driven mainly by Strategy, while other Bitcoin Treasury companies did not buy further in the near future, in contrast to the convergence of multiple Treasury companies from May to August 2025, which contributed to accelerating the trend。
A cruel phenomenon can also be seen: bitcoin fell from a high of $126,000 to its current level of $88,000, a decline of about 30 per cent; however, Strategy (MSTR)'s share price fell from a high of $457 last July, to about $160 today, a decline of 65 per cent, which means that Strategy fell almost twice as much as it did. The lever at the time of the rise became the “accelerator” of the collapse in stock prices during the downward cycle。
MSTR PREMIUM REPLACEMENT WITH THE NEXT THREE FINALS
After a double correction of stock prices and premiums, the core issue for investors is: is the current MSTR stock price of Strategy $160, an entry opportunity or the start of another crash
A key indicator is the mNAV performance of Strategy relative to its Bitcoin holdout. At the end of 2024, the market was once willing to pay a premium of up to 2.4 times to hold MSTR; this premium has been reduced significantly to 1.07 times as stock prices have recently fallen by more than 60 per cent. From a valuation point of view, this means that the emotional bubble in the market has been significantly squeezed and that the current equity price is high near its asset base, which provides a more price-for-money entry point for long-term investors who value currency。
However, the debt risk of Strategy cannot be ignored. By the beginning of 2026, the company ' s permanent preferential shareholdings had reached $8.36 billion, surpassing its $8.21 billion convertible debt. While this shift eliminates the refinancing pressure on debt maturity, it also brings about sustained cash outflows, with Strategy currently holding approximately $2.25 billion in cash reserves, while annual dividends and interest obligations are approximately $876 million。
At the current rate of expenditure, the company had a financial buffer period of about two and a half years. The more critical test will come in September 2027, when $101 billion will be on its 2028 bills“..Sell optionsIt's not the sameCash payments may be required, depending on the stock price performance at the time。
At the same time, we can combineForbes' point of viewThree scenarios were outlined for the latter:
Situation I (basic assumption):If bitcoin stays between $85,000 and $100,000, the market will enter a patience test. Strategy ' s premium is expected to remain low and the stock price is expected to fluctuate between $150 and $250, constrained by macroeconomic policy uncertainty, geopolitical instability and the lack of a new large group of institutions to buy together。
Situation II (optimistic expectations):If bitcoin breaks through the $100,000 threshold and starts a shock for $150,000, Strategy is expected to re-start its leverage-multiple engine, based on the fact that it's going to be able to make a lot of moneyCanaccord General and Bernstein analysisAnd the target price could be over $450. Strategy remains the most powerful bitcoin leverage investment in capital markets today for investors seeking excess returns。
Situation III (negative expectations):This is..Peter Schiff and other criticsThe most worrying situation. If Bitcoin’s prices fall by $80,000, or even close to the average cost line of $76,000, it will be difficult for the company to sustain its purchases through low-cost financing instruments; and, worse still, there will be significant financial pressures on the spread of accumulated permanent priority shares, which could trigger a vicious circle of erosion of asset values and financing capacity。
Market “consensus” is in a fragile state, and it depends more on investors' risk preferences
Should we do more Strategy now? Support was expressed for the view that the premium had been replaced (mNAV has been reduced from a high point of 2.4 to 1.07) and that risk releases were relatively adequate. If you agree that bitcoin is a serious "value mismatch" of less than $100,000, then Strategy is the best leverage for magnifying the profits。
The conservative view, on the other hand, is that the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies, geopolitical instability, the continued loss of ETFs and the prospect of a business bank show that the market “consensus” is at a fragile stage. It may only have a bottom-up effect if one firm in Strategy is struggling against macrogravity as a whole。
Ultimately, the answer depends on the investor ' s risk preferences. For those who believe that a number of gold will eventually win, this is an opportunity to enter after the premium has been reduced; but for the pursuit of sound finance, neutrality may be a more rational option before seeing Wall Street institutions revert to net inflows。
