Should the last two months be held or cleared

The end of October appears to have seen some upward trend in the encryption market。

Over the past two months, the word "precautionary" has almost become the main melody of the encrypted market, especially after the Great Fall of 1011. The effects of this collapse have slowly passed, and market sentiment seems to have not continued to deteriorate, but rather have gained new hope。

STARTING IN LATE, SOME OF THE SIGNS OF AN INCREASE ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR: THE DATA ON NET INFLOWS ARE POSITIVE, THE ETF VOLUME IS APPROVED AND INTEREST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE。

ETF FINANCIAL REFLOW, AGENCY RELOAD

OCTOBER'S BRIGHTEST DATA COMES FROM ETF。

THE NET CUMULATIVE INFLOWS OF REAL BITCOIN ETF OF $4.21 BILLION THIS MONTH REVERSED THE SEPTEMBER OUTFLOWS OF $1.23 BILLION. ASSET MANAGEMENT HAD REACHED $17,82.2 BILLION, OR 6.8 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF BITCOIN. DURING THE WEEK OF 20-27 OCTOBER ALONE, THERE WAS AN INFLUX OF $446 MILLION IN NEW FUNDS, OF WHICH THE IBIT UNDER THE BELÉD HAD A MONOPOLY OF $324 MILLION, AND THE HOLDING CAPACITY NOW EXCEEDED 800,000 BTCS。

For traditional financial markets, ETF inflows are the most direct view of multiple indicators — — it is more honest than the heat on social media and more true than the K-line。

More importantly, it really carries the "institutional smell". Morgan Stanley has opened the BTC and ETH configuration to all wealth management clients; JP Morgan allows agency clients to use bitcoin as collateral for loans

According to the latest data, the agency ' s average encrypted asset configuration has risen to an all-time high of 5 per cent. Moreover, 85 per cent of the agencies indicated that they had allocated or planned to distribute encrypted assets。

ALTHOUGH THE ETF SEEMS TO BE A BIT COLORLESS COMPARED TO THE REAL BITCOIN ETF. THE CUMULATIVE NET OUTFLOW IN OCTOBER OF $555 MILLION WAS THE FIRST CONSECUTIVE NET OUTFLOW SINCE APRIL THIS YEAR, MAINLY FROM THE ETH FUND UNDER THE FUDA AND BELET FLAG。

BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE A NEW SIGNAL, WHICH MEANS THAT MONEY IS BEING ROTATED, MOVING FROM ETH TO LARGER BTC AND SOL, OR PREPARING FOR A NEW ETF。

THERE'S A LOT OF ETF

On October 28th, the first American banknotes, ETF, were officially online, covering Solana, Litecoin and Hedera projects. Bitwise and Greyscale launched SOL ETF, the LTC of Canary Capital and HBAR ETF were also authorized to trade in NASDAQ。

But it's just the beginning。

IT IS REPORTED THAT 155 MOUNTAIN CURRENCIES, ETF, ARE STILL AWAITING APPROVAL, COVERING 35 MAINSTREAM ASSETS, AND THAT THE TOTAL SIZE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF ETF INFLOWS。

If all were released, the market might have an unprecedented "liquid shock wave"。

HISTORICALLY, THE INTRODUCTION OF BITCOIN ETF HAS BROUGHT IN MORE THAN $50 BILLION IN INFLOWS, AND ETF HAS BROUGHT IN $25 BILLION IN ASSET INCREASES。

ETF ISN'T JUST A FINANCIAL PRODUCT, IT'S MORE LIKE A FINANCIAL ENTRY ROUTE. WHEN THE ROUTE EXTENDS FROM BTC, ETH TO SOL, XRP, LINK, AVAX ETC., THE WHOLE MARKET VALUATION SYSTEM IS RE-PRICING。

There is a growing interest in encrypted assets。

In addition, ProShares is preparing to go online, CoinDesk 20 ETF, which tracks 20 assets, including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, etc.; 21-Asset ETF of REX-Osprey goes further and allows holders to receive pledged proceeds of tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, TAO。

The ETF that tracks Solana alone, 23 is waiting for approval. This intensive layout is almost equivalent to a public announcement that the institutional risk curve is extending from Bitcoin to the entire DeFi ecology。

AT THE MACRO LEVEL, THIS LIQUIDITY EXPANSION HAS GREAT POTENTIAL. AS OF OCTOBER 2025, THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE GLOBAL STABLE CURRENCY WAS CLOSE TO $30 BILLION. THE LIQUIDITY RESERVE, ONCE ACTIVATED BY ETF, WILL HAVE A STRONG FINANCIAL MULTIPLIER EFFECT. IN THE CASE OF BITCOIN ETF, FOR EXAMPLE, EVERY DOLLAR THAT FLOWS TO ETF ULTIMATELY INCREASES THE MARKET VALUE SEVERAL TIMES。

If the same logic is replicated in the mountains of ETF, billions of dollars of new capital could drive the entire DeFi ecology back to prosperity。

The wind of the downfall is blowing new liquidity again

IN ADDITION TO ETF, ANOTHER FACTOR IN CHANGING BEHAVIOUR COMES FROM THE USUAL MACRO LEVEL。

On October 29, the Fed had a 98.3 per cent probability that interest rates would be reduced by 25 basis points. The market appears to have digested this expectation ahead of schedule, with the weakening of the United States dollar index and the collective strengthening of risk assets and a breakthrough of $11.49 million against the currency。

What does that mean? This means that the funds are re-exported。

And in 2025, when there was a general lack of imagination in traditional markets, encryption became the "story of the story."。

More interestingly, it comes not only from markets but also from policies。

On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig as Chairman of CFTC, a former encrypted lawyer who was always friendly; the SEC also updated the ETP creation mechanism to allow encrypted ETFs to be redeemed in situ, greatly simplifying the operation。

On the subject of "regulated friendly", the United States market is not just letting go, but opening the door. Instead of suppressing innovation, the government is trying to make the encryption industry "a place of compliance."。

The numbers on the chain are simultaneously confirming all this。

DeFi's total lock volume (TVL) grew by 3.48 per cent in October to $157.5 billion. Of this total, TVL amounted to $886.6 billion, an increase of 4 per cent; Solana increased by 7 per cent; and BSC increased by 15 per cent. This means more than "refundable flows" and more than trust flows。

Combined with the increase to $53.7 billion in the total outstanding futures contract in bitcoin, the financial rate is positive, indicating that many are in the dominant market. Whale wallets are also in storage, with large households buying $350 million BTC in five hours. On the secondary market, Uniswap traded over $16.1 billion a month, Raydium over $20 billion and ecological activity continued to increase。

These chain indicators constitute the most hard evidence: funds are moving, positions are increasing and transactions are hot。

Why did the top analyst look up

Arthur Hayes: four-year cycle dead, mobility cycle immortal

On Thursday, in a blog post entitled Long Live the King, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some encrypted currency traders expect Bitcoin to reach the peak of the cycle soon and fall next year, he believes that this is going to be different。

his core point is that bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is no longer valid, because the real decision is never to “decree” the movement, but to global liquidity cycles — — and especially the resonance of monetary policy between the dollar and the renminbi。

The last three rounds of cattle bear seem to have followed the rhythm of "Cow Town, Four Rounds" after half, but that's just a sign. Hayes argued that the rhythm was created because each round coincided with a period of substantial expansion of the dollar or the renminbi, extremely low interest rates, and global credit easing. For example:

• 2009 & ndash; 2013: Fed Unlimited QE, China Lending
• 2013 & ndash; 2017: RMB credit expansion drives the ICO boom
• 2017 & ndash; 2021: trump, biden's "helicopter money" has created a surge of mobility。

As credit expansion slowed in both currencies, the bull market in Bitcoin ended. In other words, bitcoin is just a barometer of global currency watering。

by 2025, the logic of halving the driving force had completely collapsed. because monetary policy in both countries has entered a new pattern, — — political pressure requires continued easing, and liquidity will no longer be tied to a cycle。

The United States needs a “runner economy” to dilute its debt, and the Trumps pressure on interest rates and fiscal expansion; China is also releasing credit to counter deflation. Both countries are investing in markets。

So Hayes concluded: "The four-year cycle is dead." The real cycle is the cycle of liquidity. As long as they keep printing, bitcoin will rise. I don't know

this means that the future encryption market will no longer be subject to a "half-a-half" timetable, depending on the direction of the dollar and the renminbi. in one sentence, he ends: "the king is dead, long live the king" — — the old cycle is over, but the new, mobile-led bitcoin cycle has just begun。

Raoul Pal: 5.4 Yearly replacement tradition 4-year cycle

Raoul Pal's five-year cycle theory represents a fundamental recast of the traditional bitcoon four-year half-cycle. In his view, the traditional 4-year cycle was not driven by the Bitcoin Agreement itself, but rather the result of the overlap of the past three cycles (2009-2013, 2013-2017, 2017-2021) with the global debt refinancing cycle。

The end of these cycles stems from monetary austerity rather than from the events of halving them themselves。

The key to this shift in theory is the structural change in the average maturity of United States debt during 2021-2022. In an environment close to zero interest rates, the United States Treasury Department extended the average weighted maturity of debt from about 4 to 5.4 years。

This extension not only affects the schedule for debt refinancing, but, more importantly, changes the pace of global liquidity releases, thereby delaying the cyclical peak of Bitcoin from the traditional fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, which also bodes well for a rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025。

In Raoul Pal, it appears that the global debt stock has reached about $30 trillion, of which about $10 trillion is about to expire (mainly in United States Treasury bonds and corporate bonds), requiring a massive liquidity injection to avoid a sharp rise in returns. The increase in liquidity per trillion dollars is associated with 5-10 per cent of equities, encrypted currency gains. For encrypted currencies, $10 trillion of refinancing could inject $2-3 trillion into risk assets, pushing the BTC from a low of $600,000 in 2024 to more than $200,000 in 2026。

So Pal's model predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will witness unprecedented peaks in liquidity. When ISM breaks 60, bitcoin will be triggered into the Banana Zone at a target price of US$ 20-45 million。