Matrixport Research: Bitcoin enters the key price range and the transfer of ownership accelerates

Bitcoin, after refreshing its historical highs, entered the most critical price range of the current cycle: between $110,000 and $1.12 million. Price rolls do not mean stability, but rather reflect a restructuring of the holding structure: long-term holders are being cut in batches, while new entrants are absorbing the pressure. Redistribution of supplies has reduced volatility and masked the emerging structural tension. The “balance” of the current market is more like a critical balance — a dynamic trend change once the direction is triggered。

Distribution of supply weights: institutional acceptance, old ministry reduction

The chain data show that the realized market value of Bitcoin (Realized Cap) has been synchronized with low-frequency indicators such as Coin Days Detroyed, CDD, which have shifted to defense, reflecting the fact that long-term holders are delivering in batches. At the same time, ETF financial flows became a key variable: inflows accumulated close to $6 billion in nine trading days in late September, boosting price recovery; however, after tariff and macro disturbances in October, inflows slowed rapidly. The existing balance would be difficult to maintain if the additional requirements were not sustained。

It is worth noting that prices have been tested on several occasions 21 week averages and short-term realized prices (STH Realized Price), which have historically been the boundary between the multi-empty trends. In the event of a fall of $110,000, the supply side would regain control of the market and short-line or trigger structural clarity。

MACRO-DISTURBATION ACCUMULATION: STRONG DOLLAR RESONANCE WITH WATCHING ETF

The recent moderate strengthening of the United States dollar index has broken the old logic that “the dollar depreciated better than the currency”. Historical experience shows that the continued rise of bitcoin is often based on the weakening cycle of the dollar; on the contrary, when the dollar enters a strong phase, bitcoin performance is usually limited. At the same time, the recent statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell weakened the market’s expectations of “lax guarantees” and turned long-only institutions back into waiters. The financial return window before the end of the year is shrinking, and if ETF funds are delayed in restarting inflows, the market balance may be broken and the price focus will move down to 85,000 to $100,000。

BITCOIN IS AT THE STAGE OF STRUCTURAL REBALANCING IN THE CATTLE MARKET. MARKET LIQUIDITY REMAINS HIGH AND INSTITUTIONAL PARTICIPATION IS NOT REDUCED, BUT A CHAINSAW BETWEEN PRICE ZONES MEANS THAT OWNERSHIP IS BEING TRANSFERRED ACROSS GENERATIONS. SHORT-TERM STRATEGIES SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY PRICE DISCIPLINE AND RISK CONTROL TO AVOID BEING INFLUENCED BY NARRATIVE SENTIMENTS. IF THE ETF FUNDS REVERT, THE CURRENT ROUND OF ADJUSTMENTS WILL BECOME A RESERVE BEFORE THE INCREASE; IF THE FUNDS ARE SLOW, THE MARKET WILL BE ABLE TO REBALANCE BY SHORT LIQUIDATION. THIS “QUIET” IS NOT THE END, BUT THE SILENCE BEFORE THE OUTBREAK OF THE COURSE。

 

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Disclaimer: The market is at risk and investments need to be prudent. This does not constitute an investment proposal. Digital asset transactions can be highly risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decision based on the information provided in this content。