The U.S. government shuts down. 43 days from now, why doesn't the market buy

By Golem, Odaily Daily Planet

 

The 43-day hiatus of the US federal government finally ended today。

On 13 November, the House of Representatives passed the Interim Appropriations Bill by 222 votes to 209, and Trump signed the Interim Appropriations Bill on the morning of 13, after which it will fund food aid projects that have been suspended during the standstill, pay back hundreds of thousands of federal employees and restore air traffic control systems to normal functioning. The White House of the United States also indicated that Bureau of Labor Statistics data would be released in September after the re-opening of the Government, but that key economic reports in October might not be released at all。

EVERYTHING'S BACK ON TRACK, BUT THE MARKET DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE HAD A STRONG REBOUND FROM THE GOVERNMENT'S RE-LAUNCHING -- THE BTC ONCE AGAIN BROKE $101,000 THIS MORNING, AND THE MARKET AS A WHOLE WENT DOWN. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE MACRO-ENVIRONMENT, THE ENCRYPTION MARKET APPEARS TO REQUIRE MORE STIMULUS FACTORS TO BRING MORE ROBUST UPWARD ENERGY。

Why does the U.S. government stop

Historically, the United States Government has stopped 21 times since 1976, but since October 1, 2025, this has broken the record of a 35-day-old government。

This record-breaking pause stems from the failure of the Republican and Democratic parties to agree on a new budget in October. The difference between the two sides over the budget was mainly related to a medical expenditure, with the Democratic Party demanding an extension of the tax credit that was due to expire to allow millions of Americans to continue to receive lower health insurance costs, and the Republican Party insisting on cutting health and government spending on health care to control the size of the budget。

Although the Chamber of Deputies passed an interim appropriation bill to avoid the closure of the Government, a protracted confrontation between Democrats in the Senate culminated in the formal suspension of the Government from 1 October. However, despite the passage of the interim grant bill, the United States and the United States are still fighting over federal health-care subsidies, and the Democratic Party has failed to achieve the goal of extending federal health-care benefits。

The core contradiction of this dispute remains unresolved。

Different manifestations of American stock and encrypted markets during the US government's suspension

The suspension of the United States Government affected not only the daily lives of Americans, but also the wallets of global investors. The market believes that the suspension of the United States Government will have a negative impact on the market。

ONE REASON IS THAT THE US GOVERNMENT'S STAGNATION HAS MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE ECONOMIC SECTOR, SUCH AS THE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, TO FUNCTION PROPERLY, AND THAT IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DATA, SUCH AS CPI AND NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTS, CANNOT BE RELEASED ON TIME, LEADING TO THE FED'S “BLIND FLY” IN DECISION-MAKING, WHICH CASTS A SHADOW ON THE MARKET。

The second is that the United States Government has shut down market liquidity and that the United States Treasury General Account (TGA) is responsible for all government expenditures, not only for the salaries of United States civil servants, but also for the blood of the financial markets, and that the United States Government has stopped moving TGA. According to MacroMicro, TGA had accumulated over $14,590 billion during the United States Government's suspension, leaving a balance of $96,653 billion。

However, TradingView data show that during the US government's standstill (1 October to 13 November), the three major US stock indices did not decline significantly, but rose, pointing 3.5 per cent higher, placard 500 up 3 per cent higher, and nanomean 2.9 per cent higher; gold increased by 8.5 per cent during the US government's standstill and reached a new high of $4355 on 22 October。

THE ENCRYPTED MARKET WAS “UNSATISFIED WITH EXPECTATIONS” AND IT FELL A LOT. ON 11 OCTOBER, THE ENCRYPTION MARKET COLLAPSED, CREATING A SINGLE-DAY LIQUIDATION RECORD OF OVER $19.1 BILLION, WITH BITCOIN FALLING EVEN BY $99,000. DESPITE THE RECOVERY OF THE MARKET AFTER THE “1011” CRASH, THE MARKET REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK, WITH THE BTC CUMULATIVELY FALLING BY 14 PER CENT, ETH BY 20 PER CENT, SOL BY 30 PER CENT AND BNB BY 6.67 PER CENT DURING THE US GOVERNMENT'S FALL (1 OCTOBER-13 NOVEMBER)。

AS A RESULT, THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES HAS STALLED AND THE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON GLOBAL MARKETS HAS NOT BEEN AS LARGE AS EXPECTED. THE DECLINE IN THE ENCRYPTION MARKET DURING THIS PERIOD WAS THE RESULT OF A NUMBER OF FACTORS, SUCH AS THE CONTINUED OUTFLOW OF SPOT BITCOIN ETF, THE DOWNSWING OF DAT, THE WEAKENING OF THE FED'S INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS, AND THE STORMING OF THE ENCRYPTION INDUSTRY。

The market may have overestimated the impact of the US government's restart

Since the closure of the United States Government is only a very small factor in global market volatility, investors may have overestimated the impact of the United States Government ' s reactivation on the market。

THE U.S. STOCK WAS CLOSED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SENATE WOULD VOTE AND THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WOULD RESTART, WITH ONLY A 0.78 PER CENT INCREASE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE STANDARD 500 INDEX, WHILE THE INDEX FELL BY 0.26 PER CENT; THE ENCRYPTION MARKET HAD STILL NOT REBOUNDED FROM ITS DECLINE, THE BTC DAY LINE HAD FALLEN BY 1.04 PER CENT, AND THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT WAS NOT “GOOD ENOUGH” TO RESTART THE ENCRYPTION MARKET。

In history, there are bloggers@BunnyTalks_Summarizing the pattern, the United States stock market rose when the US stock market was warmed during the 1995-1996, 2013 and 2018-2019 period of the United States Government’s hiatus. We'll have to see if this pattern works again。

For the encrypted market, there is no “government will rise when it restarts”. According to statistics, the United States Government has stopped three times since Bitcoin was officially awarded a price by the market。

• 1 October - 17 October 2013: The United States Government suspended for 16 days due to Obama ' s health-care dispute and the United States Government restarted for a month without a significant change in Bitcoin prices
• 20 January - 22 January 2018: Intralap immigration policy dispute, United States government paused for two days, United States government restarted for a month, and bitcoin prices fell by $100,000
• December 22, 2018 - January 25, 2019: Intrample-Max border wall dispute, United States government paused for 35 days and the United States government restarted for one month without a significant change in Bitcoin prices。

In sum, the United States Government has had little impact in the past on the price of coins and encrypted markets, and we should not expect too much from them. The major drop in Bitcoin at the beginning of 2018 was also due to the “94” currency circle that entered the deep bear。

Moreover, the impact of the collapse of the 1011s on the encryption industry is now slowly emerging, liquidity is approaching depletion, structural buyout support such as DeFi, ETF, and DAT are being withdrawn, all of which are stifling the US government’s renewed upward momentum for Bitcoin。

THE VIEW WAS ALSO EXPRESSED, HOWEVER, THAT TODAY'S ENCRYPTION MARKET WAS DIFFERENT, ESPECIALLY SINCE BITCOIN HAD BECOME A “SUBSERVE” TO THE UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET, AND THAT THE MACRO-INTERESTS WOULD THUS PLAY A STRONG ROLE. AS THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT RETURNS TO NORMALITY, THE TGA STARTS TO INJECT BLOOD INTO THE MARKET, AND HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF PREVIOUSLY SUPPRESSED FISCAL SPENDING WILL FLOW INTO THE MARKET AND THE ENCRYPTION MARKET WILL TURN。