Grayscale decryption 2026: Reconstruct industrial ecology
Original title: 2026 Digital Assembly Outlook: Dawn of the Integral Era
_Other Organiser
Original by Peggy, Block Beats
COMPOSERS PRESS: AFTER MANY YEARS OF HIGH VOLATILITY AND NARRATIVE-DRIVEN CYCLES, ENCRYPTED ASSETS ARE ENTERING A DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT PHASE. THE RISE IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRENCH CURRENCY SYSTEM, THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS AND THE ADVANCEMENT OF SPOT EP, STABLE CURRENCY LEGISLATION AND INSTITUTIONAL CONFIGURATION ARE RESHAPING THE WAY FUNDS ENTER THE ENCRYPTED MARKET。
The core judgement of Graysdale in the Digital Asset Vision 2026 is that the dominant power of the encrypted market is shifting from the diaspora cycle to institutional capital. Prices are no longer largely dependent on emotional explosion, but are driven more by compliance channels, long-term funding and sustainable fundamentals, and narratives of the " four-year cycle" are weakening。
This paper is a systematic overview of the 10 major investment themes that may shape the market in 2026, ranging from value storage, stable currency, asset monetization, to DeFi, AI and privacy infrastructure, to outline an encrypted ecological landscape that is gradually embedded in the mainstream financial system. At the same time, the report makes clear which topical topics are more "noise" than decisive variables in the short term。
The following is the original text:
Key Takeaways
We expect to accelerate the structural transformation in digital asset investment in 2026, driven by two main themes: the rising demand for alternative value storage tools at the macro level and significant improvements in regulatory clarity. Together, it is expected that new sources of finance will be introduced, that the use of digital assets will be expanded (particularly among wealth management advisers and institutional investor groups) and that the public sector block chain will be more fully integrated into mainstream financial infrastructure。
Based on these trends, we judge that the 2026 valuation of digital assets will be higher as a whole, while the so-called "four-year cycle" (i.e. the idea that the encryption market will follow a fixed four-year rhythm) will come to an end. In our view, bitcoin prices are likely to be at a new historical high in the first half of the year。
Graysdale expects that the two-party-backed encrypted market structure legislation will become United States law in 2026. This will further deepen the integration between the public sector block chain and traditional finance, facilitate compliance transactions in digital asset securities and hopefully allow for chain issuance between start-ups and mature firms。
The future of the French currency system is becoming increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can almost be sure that 20 million bitcoins will be dug up in March 2026. Against the backdrop of increased risk in the French currency, digital monetary systems such as bitcoin and the Ethera, with transparent, programmable and ultimately scarce supply features, are expected to meet stronger demand。
WE EXPECT MORE ENCRYPTED ASSETS TO BE OPENED TO INVESTORS IN 2026 IN THE FORM OF TRADED PRODUCTS (ETPS). SUCH PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN WELL STARTED, BUT MANY PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO EXERCISE DUE DILIGENCE AND ADVANCE THE INTEGRATION OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS INTO THE ASSET ALLOCATION PROCESS. AS THE PROCESS MATURES, SLOW BUT SUBSTANTIAL INSTITUTIONAL FUNDING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN 2026。
We also combed the top 10 encryption investment themes of 2026 to reflect the wide range of applications that are emerging in public sector block chain technology. Each theme corresponds to the corresponding encrypted asset:
1. The risk of depreciation of the United States dollar drives demand for currency substitution programmes
2. Enhanced regulatory clarity to support the adoption of digital assets
3. AFTER THE LANDING OF THE GENIUS ACT, THE INFLUENCE OF THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY CONTINUED TO GROW
4. Financialization of assets at critical points
5. Mainstream block chains and demand for privacy solutions increases
AI TOWARDS CENTRALIZATION, CALLING BLOCK CHAIN SOLUTIONS
DeFi Accelerated development, led by borrowing
8. Mainstream adoption of backward generation infrastructure
9. A more focused sustainable income model
10. Investors will "defaultly" seek collateral gains
Finally, we also point out two topics that are not expected to have a substantial impact on the encryption market in 2026:
Quantification: We believe that the research and preparation of late quantum cryptography will continue, but are unlikely to have an impact on market valuation in the coming year。
Digital Asset Treasury (DATs): Despite receiving more media attention, we judge that it will not become a key variable in 2026 to influence the dynamics of the digital asset market。
2026 Digital asset outlook: dawn of the institutional age
Fifteen years ago, encrypted currency was still an experimental experiment: there was only one asset on the market, Bitcoin, with a market value of about $1 million. Today, the encrypted currency has evolved into a new industry and has grown into a medium-sized alternative asset class, consisting of millions of coins with a total market value of about $3 trillion (see figure 1)。
As major economies move towards a more complete regulatory framework, the integration of the public sector block chain with traditional financial systems is deepening and attracting capital for long-term allocation into the market。
Chart 1: Encrypted assets have grown to a medium-sized alternative asset class
In the history of the development of encrypted assets, the valuation of tokens experienced four larger periodic retreats, roughly reflecting a rhythm every four years (see chart 2). In three of these cases, the cyclical heights of the valuation were around 1 to 1.5 years after the events of the halving of Bitcoin, which itself was equally four-year。
This round of cattle has lasted for more than three years, with the latest cut-off of bitcoin occurring in April 2024 and now more than 1.5 years. As a result, some market participants, judged on the basis of traditional experience, may have seen the price of bitcoin peak in October, and 2026 will be a difficult year for the return of encrypted assets。
Chart 2: 2026 Annual valuation to mark the end of the " four-year cycle " theory
Graysdale argues that the category of encrypted assets is in the midst of an ongoing cattle market and that 2026 will be the key node towards the end of the so-called "four-year cycle". We expect that the valuation of the six encoded asset blocks in 2026 will be fully up and judgement that bitcoin prices are expected to break the historical highs of the first half of the year。
Our optimism is based mainly on two core pillars:
First, demand for alternative value storage tools at the macro level will persist。
By market value, bitcoin and utshawk are the two largest currently encrypted assets and can be considered to be scarce digital commodities and alternative monetary assets. At the same time, the French currency system (and assets denominated in French) is facing additional risks, with high and rising public sector debt, which may exert pressure on inflation in the medium to long term (see chart 3)。
Against this background, scarce commodities, whether in physical form of gold, silver, or in digital form of bitcoin and Ethera, may play the role of "knotstone" in the portfolio against the risk of hedge currency. In our view, as long as the risk of a devaluation of the French currency continues to rise, there is likely to be a simultaneous increase in the allocation needs of the investment portfolio in contrast to the Taffle。
Chart 3: U.S. debt problems undermine the credibility of low inflation expectations
Second, regulatory clarity is driving institutional funds into the public sector block chain。
This can easily be ignored, but until this year, the United States Government continued to investigate and/or prosecute the heads of various encryption industries, including Coinbase, Ripple, Binance, Robinhod, Connsys, Uniswap and OpenSea. Even today, there is a lack of clear and uniform regulatory guidance at the spot market level for exchanges and other encrypted intermediaries。
However, the situation is moving slowly but clearly。
In 2023, Grayscale won in a lawsuit with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), paving the way for the encryption of a spot exchange traded product (ETP)
IN 2024, BITCOIN AND ETP OFFICIALLY ENTERED THE MARKET
IN 2025, THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS PASSED THE GENIUS ACT FOR A STABLE CURRENCY, AND REGULATORS HAVE BEGUN TO ADJUST THEIR ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE ENCRYPTION INDUSTRY, WHILE CONTINUING TO EMPHASIZE CONSUMER PROTECTION AND FINANCIAL STABILITY BY WORKING WITH INDUSTRY TO PROVIDE CLEARER REGULATORY GUIDANCE
In 2026, Grayscale expected Congress to adopt two-party consensus-based encrypted market structure legislation, which was expected to consolidate the position of block-chain finance in United States capital markets at the institutional level and further boost the sustained inflow of institutional investment (see chart 4)。
Figure 4: Increased scale of financing or reflection of growing institutional confidence
IN OUR VIEW, NEW FUNDS FOR ACCESS TO ENCRYPTED ECOSYSTEMS WILL FLOW MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOT ETPS. SINCE JANUARY 2024, WHEN THE REAL BITCOIN ETP WAS LISTED IN THE UNITED STATES, THE GLOBAL ENCRYPTED ETP HAS ACCUMULATED NET INFLOWS OF APPROXIMATELY $87 BILLION (SEE CHART 5)。
Although these products were significantly successful in the early stages of roll-out, the process of mainstreaming encrypted assets into the mainstream portfolio is still at an early stage. Grayscale estimates that less than 0.5 per cent of the wealth currently managed by United States trustees/consultants is still allocated to encrypted assets. This proportion is expected to increase as more investment platforms complete due diligence, build corresponding capital market assumptions and incorporate encrypted assets into the model portfolio。
In addition to the wealth management channels, some pioneers have deployed encrypted ETPs into their institutional portfolios, including Harvard Management Company and Mubadala, one of Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth funds. We expect that by 2026 the list of institutions will have expanded significantly。
CHART 5: ENCRYPTED SPOT ETP CONTINUES TO ATTRACT NET INFLOWS
As the encryption market is increasingly driven by institutional capital inflows, the characteristics of price performance change. In each previous round of cattle, bitcoin prices had risen by at least 100 per cent in one year (see chart 6). In the current cycle, the maximum increase was approximately 240 per cent per year (annual interval as of March 2024)。
In our view, this difference reflects more robust and sustained institutional buy-in behaviour in the recent past, rather than a pattern of booming over previous cycles, driven by sporadic sentiments. Although investments in encrypted assets still carry significant risks, at the time of writing, we're judging that the probability of deep and long-term cyclical retreats is relatively low. In contrast, with the sustained inflow of institutional resources, prices are more likely to move up in a more stable and gradual manner and are expected to become dominant next year。
Chart 6: No sharp rise in bitcoin prices in the current cycle
A relatively friendly macro-market environment may also create a buffer against downside risk of token prices in 2026。
In retrospect, the first two cyclical highs were at the Fed's interest rate increase (see chart 7). And by contrast, the Fed has already cut interest rates three times in 2025 and is expected to continue to lower interest rates next year。
Kevin Hassett, who was seen as a potential successor to Jerome Powell as the Fed's Chairman, recently stated in the "Face the Nation" programme: "Americans can expect President Trump to choose a candidate who can help them to obtain cheaper car loans and easier housing mortgages at lower interest rates. I don't know
Overall, a more liberal US Federal Reserve policy environment with economic growth is usually conducive to raising investors ' risk preferences and creating potential rises in risk assets, including encrypted assets。
Chart 7: Past cycles tend to be accompanied by interest rate hikes
As with other asset classes, the price of encrypted assets is driven by the same fundamentals and financial flows. Large commodity markets have cyclical characteristics, and encrypted assets may also experience longer cyclical retreats at some stages in the future. But we don't think 2026 is such a condition。
THE UNDERLYING FACTORS REMAIN SOLID: THE CONTINUING DEMAND FOR ALTERNATIVE VALUE STORAGE TOOLS AT THE MACRO LEVEL, AS WELL AS THE ENTRY OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS RESULTING FROM INCREASED REGULATORY CLARITY, ARE LAYING THE LONG-TERM FOUNDATION FOR PUBLICLY OWNED BLOCK CHAIN TECHNOLOGIES. AT THE SAME TIME, ADDITIONAL FUNDS CONTINUE TO ENTER THE MARKET. BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR, ENCRYPTED ETPS ARE LIKELY TO APPEAR IN MORE PORTFOLIOS. THERE WAS NO SINGLE, CENTRALIZED WAVE OF BULK FUNDS IN THE CURRENT CYCLE, WHICH WAS REPLACED BY A CONSTANT AND STABLE DISTRIBUTION DEMAND FOR ENCRYPTED ETPS FROM VARIOUS PORTFOLIOS. IN A GENERALLY FRIENDLY MACRO-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WE BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE KEY CONDITION FOR THE CATEGORY OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS TO MOVE UP IN 2026。
In 2026, the top 10 encryption investment themes
Encrypted assets are a highly diverse asset class, reflecting the multiple applications covered by the publicly owned block chain technology. The following section summarizes Grayscale's judgement on the top 10 topics of encrypted investment in 2026, and adds two "red herrings". Under each theme, we list the most relevant tokens from our perspective. For the classification of investable digital assets, reference can be made to our Crystal Sections framework。
Theme I: The risk of the depreciation of the United States dollar drives demand for monetary alternatives
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: BTC, ETH, ZEC
The United States economy is facing a structural debt problem (figure 3 is recapable), which may place pressure on the position of the United States dollar as a value storage tool in the medium to long term. Similar challenges exist in other countries, but the credibility of United States policy is particularly critical for potential cross-border capital flows, as the United States dollar remains the most important international currency today。
In our view, only a small percentage of digital assets are viable as a value storage tool, premised on a sufficiently broad base of adoption, highly decentrized network structures and limited supply growth. The most typical of these are the two largest encrypted assets — bitcoin and Etherwood — calculated at market value. Similar to in-kind gold, their value stems in part from their scarcity and autonomy。
The total supply of bitcoin is permanently limited to 21 million and is determined entirely by the rules of procedure. For example, we can be highly certain that 20 million bitcoins will be dug up in March 2026. The concept of a transparent, predictable and ultimately scarce digital monetary system is not per se complex, but its attractiveness is increasing in an environment where the monetary system is now exposed to tail risks. As long as the macro imbalances that contribute to the risk of French currency continue to increase, the portfolio ' s demand for alternative value stored assets may continue to rise (see figure 8)。
In addition, Zcash, as a small, private digital currency, may also be suitable for portfolio allocation for the risk of depreciation against the dollar (see theme V for further details)。
Chart 8: Macro imbalances or increases in demand for alternative value storage tools
Theme II: Enhanced regulatory clarity to underpin the widespread use of digital assets
Related encrypted assets: almost all
THE UNITED STATES TOOK A KEY STEP TOWARDS CLARITY IN ENCRYPTION REGULATION IN 2025, INCLUDING THE ADOPTION OF THE GENIUS ACT FOR STABLE CURRENCIES, THE REPEAL OF STAFF ACCOUNTING BULLETIN NO. 121 OF THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES COMMISSION (SEC) (SAB 121, RELATING TO THE HANDLING OF CUSTODIAL ACCOUNTING), THE INTRODUCTION OF UNIVERSAL LISTING STANDARDS FOR ENCRYPTION ETPS, AND THE INITIATION OF EFFORTS TO ADDRESS THE ACCESS OF THE ENCRYPTION INDUSTRY TO THE TRADITIONAL BANKING SYSTEM (SEE FIGURE 9)。
Looking ahead to 2026, we expect a more decisive step — the passage of two-party-backed encrypted market structure legislation. The United States House of Representatives passed its version of the bill, Clarity Act, in July, and the Senate subsequently initiated their respective legislative processes. While specific provisions still require further consultation, in the context of the overall framework, the legislation will provide a system of rules for the encrypted capital market against traditional finance, covering registration and information disclosure requirements, classification criteria for encrypted assets, and codes of conduct for insiders。
At the practical level, a more complete regulatory framework that has evolved in the United States and other major economies means that regulated financial services institutions may formally include digital assets in their balance sheets and start trading on block chains. At the same time, it is also expected to promote chain capital formation — both start-ups and mature companies — with the possibility of issuing compliant chain tokens. By further unleashing the potential of block chain technology, regulatory clarity is expected to raise the value hub for encrypted asset classes in a holistic manner。
Given the potential importance of regulatory clarity in 2026 to drive the development of encrypted assets, we believe that a major downside risk should arise from major disagreements or breakdowns between the two parties in the legislative process。
Chart 9: The U.S. significantly advanced the encryption regulation clarity process in 2025
THEME THREE: THE STABILIZING CURRENCY INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WHEN THE GENIUS ACT IS LANDED
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, XPL, LINK
IN 2025, THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY USHERED IN A REAL "TURN-IN" MOMENT: IT HAD RISEN TO ABOUT $30 BILLION IN EXTERNAL CIRCULATION, WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TURNOVER OF ABOUT $1.1 TRILLION IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS OF NOVEMBER; AT THE SAME TIME, THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS PASSED THE GENIUS ACT, AND A LARGE NUMBER OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS BEGAN TO ACCELERATE IN THIS AREA (SEE CHART 10)。
Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate that these changes will be translated into off-the-shelf practical applications: stable currency will be embedded more broadly in cross-border payment services; as collateral assets on derivatives exchanges; on enterprise balance sheets; and on-line consumer payments as alternatives to credit cards. At the same time, the projected continued warming in the market may further generate additional demand for stable currencies。
The steady growth of currency transactions will directly benefit the block chain networks (e.g. ETH, TRX, BNB, SOL, etc.) that carry these transactions and will also lead to the development of a range of supporting infrastructure (e.g. LINK) and decentralised financial (DeFi) applications (see theme VII for more details)。
Figure 10: Stabilizing currency at critical outbreak period
Theme IV: Asset monetization at a critical juncture
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: LINK, ETH, SOL, AVAX, BNB, CC
In terms of current size, tokenized assets remain insignificant: they represent only about 0.01 per cent of the total market value of the global stock and bond markets (see figure 11). Grayscale expects that, as the technology of block chains matures and regulatory clarity continues to improve, asset monetization will accelerate growth in the coming years。
In our view, by 2030, the magnitude of monetized assets had increased about 1,000 times. This process of expansion is likely to create significant value for the block chain network, as well as for a variety of ancillary applications, that handle transactions in monetized assets。
Currently, the leading public chains in the field of monetized assets include ETH, BNB Chain and Solana, but this pattern is likely to change in the future. In supporting applications, Chainlink (LINK) is considered to have a particularly competitive advantage with its unique and complete portfolio of software technologies。
Chart 11: Considerable growth space for monetized assets
Theme five: Mainstream block chains and demand for privacy solutions
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: ZEC, AZTEC, RAIL
Privacy is an essential component of the financial system. Most people acquiesce that their salary income, tax information, asset size and consumer behaviour should not be publicly displayed on public books. However, most of the current block chains are designed by default to be highly transparent. If the public block chain is to be more deeply integrated into the financial system, it must be accompanied by a more mature and robust privacy infrastructure - This is becoming increasingly evident as regulation promotes the integration of block chains with traditional finance。
Against the background of increased investor interest in privacy issues, one of the potential beneficiaries is Zcash (ZEC): a decentrized digital currency that is structurally similar to bitcoin but incorporates privacy protection functions. Zcash experienced a significant increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 (see chart 12). Other important projects include Aztec (a private-oriented second-tier Etherwood network) and Railgun (a privacy middle for DeFi)。
In addition, we may see that mainstream smart contracting platforms have begun to use "secret transactions" mechanisms more widely, such as the ERC-7984 standard in the Taifung and the expansion of Solana's Secure Transferrs. At the same time, the improvement of privacy tools may also be a disincentive for the DeFi area to upgrade simultaneously in the identification and compliance infrastructure。
Chart 12: Encryption investors ' interest in privacy is increasing
THEME VI: AI TOWARDS CENTRALIZATION, CALLING FOR BLOCK CHAIN SOLUTIONS
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: TAO, IP, NEAR, WORLD
The bottom-up convergence between encryption technology and artificial intelligence has never been clearer and stronger than it is today. Currently, AI is gradually concentrating on a small number of front-line enterprises, which raises a number of concerns about trust, prejudice and ownership; and encryption technologies provide a basic set of capabilities (primitives) that can directly address these risks。
For example, a decentrized AI development platform such as Bittensor aims to reduce reliance on centralized AI technology; a verifiable "Proof of Personalhood" provided by World, attempts to distinguish between real human beings and smart agents in an environment where synthetic activity is widespread; and networks such as Story Protocol provide transparent and traceable links to intellectual property rights in an era where digital content sources are increasingly difficult to identify. At the same time, instruments such as X402, a stable currency operating on Base and Solana, with zero charges, pays the open layer, providing the low-cost, instant microcapacity needed for economic interaction between intelligent bodies or between machines and people。
Together, these elements constitute the early infrastructure of the so-called "genent economy": in this system, identity, calculus, data and payments must be verifiable, programmable and resistant to censorship. Although the ecology is still early and uneven, the cross-cutting area of encryption and AI remains one of the most long-term scenarios in the industry. As AI becomes more centralized, autonomous and economically capable, agreements that are building real infrastructure are expected to become potential beneficiaries (see chart 13)。
CHART 13: PATH TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE KEY RISKS POSED BY THE BLOCK CHAIN FOR AI
Theme 7: DeFi accelerates development, led by the lending track
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: AAVE, MORPHO, MAPLE, KMNO, UNI, AERO, RAY, JUP, HYPE, LINK
DeFi applications were boosted significantly in 2025 by a combination of improved technological maturity and an improved regulatory environment. Stabilizing the growth of currency and monetized assets is one of the most notable success stories, but at the same time DeFi has also achieved substantial expansion in the area of lending, spearheaded by agreements such as Aave, Morpho and Maple Finance (see figure 14)。
At the same time, decentrization of the permanent contract exchange (e.g. Hyperliquid) has continued to approach, and even match, the large central derivatives exchange on indicators such as the size of the unwinded contract and the volume of daily transactions. Looking to the future, as liquidity increases, interoperability across agreements increases, and connectivity to the real world price system becomes stronger, DeFi is becoming a credible alternative for users who want to complete financial activity directly along the chain。
We expect more DeFi agreements to work with traditional financial technology companies (fintech) to leverage their mature infrastructure and established user base. In this process, it is expected that the core DeFi agreements will continue to benefit - including lending platforms (e.g. AAVE), decentrization exchanges (e.g. UNI, HYPE) and related infrastructure agreements (e.g. LINK); and that the public-chain networks (e.g. ETH, SOL, BASE) that carry most DeFi activities will also benefit simultaneously。
Chart 14: DeFi continues to grow in size and form, and the ecology is becoming more diverse
Theme VIII: Mainstream adoption of backward generation infrastructure upgrading
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: SUI, MON, NEAR, MEGA
The new generation of block chains is driving the technical boundary forward. Some investors, however, are of the view that more block space is not needed at this time, as the needs of existing public chains have not yet been fully absorbed. Solana was a typical example of this challenge: as a very fast-functioning but limited-use public chain, it was once seen as "overstretching space" until the subsequent wave of applications became one of the most successful examples in the industry。
Not all high-performance public chains now replicate Solana's path, but we believe that a few of these projects are promising breakthroughs. Optimal technologies do not necessarily lead to adoption, but the architecture of these next-generation networks gives them unique advantages in the context of emerging applications, such as AI micropayments, real-time game cycles, high-frequency chain transactions, and systems based on intention-based。
In this ladder, we expect Sui to be particularly prominent, with advantages arising from clear technological leadership and highly integrated development strategies (see chart 15). Other projects of concern include Monad (parallelization of the EVM architecture), MegaETH (super-high-speed and Taifung 2nd floor network) and Near (block chains focusing on AI and making progress on its Intents products)。
Chart 15: Sui. The next generation of block chains can achieve faster, cheaper trading experiences
Theme IX: Increased focus on sustainable income capacity
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: SOL, ETH, BNB, HYPE, PUMP, TRX
The block chains are also non-traditional enterprises, but they also have quantifiable basic indicators, including number of users, number of transactions, fees, locking funds (capital/TVL), size of developers and application ecology. Among these indicators, Grayscale considers transaction fees to be the most valuable single fundamental indicator, as it is the most difficult to manipulate and has a higher degree of comparability between different block chains (while also showing the best possible convergence of experiences)。
from the perspective of traditional corporate finance, transaction fees can be compared to “income”. for block chain applications, a further distinction needs to be made between fees/incomes on the level of the agreement and “supply side” fees/incomes. as institutional investors begin to systematically deploy encrypted assets, we expect that they will pay greater attention to the chain of blocks and applications (except for bitcoin) where the level of revenue from fees is higher or there is a clear trend of growth。
AT PRESENT, THE RELATIVELY HIGH REVENUE FROM HANDLING FEES IN SMART CONTRACTING PLATFORMS INCLUDES TRX, SOL, ETH AND BNB (SEE FIGURE 16), WHILE THE HIGHER INCOME PERFORMANCE IN APPLICATIONS INCLUDES PROJECTS SUCH AS HYPE, PUMP, ETC。
Chart 16: Institutional investors or will look more closely at the fundamentals of the block chain
Theme 10: Investors will "defaultly" select pledges (Staking)
RELATED ENCRYPTED ASSETS: LDO, JTO
In 2025, two key adjustments were made by United States policymakers around the pledge mechanism, paving the way for more currency holders to participate in the pledge:
(1) The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)** makes clear that a liquid pledge does not constitute a securities transaction
(2) THE UNITED STATES INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE (IRS) AND THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE INVESTMENT TRUST AND EXCHANGE TRADING PRODUCTS (ETP) CAN PLEDGE DIGITAL ASSETS。
The regulatory guidelines around mobile pledge services are expected to be of direct benefit to Lido and Jito - both of which are the top mobile pledge agreements based on the size of the TVL, which are based on the size of the warehouse. More broadly, encryption ETP is able to participate in the pledge, and it is likely that the "collateral or default holding" will become the standard structure for investment in the POS tokens, thereby pushing up the overall pledge ratio and putting some downward pressure on the pledge return (see figure 17)。
In a broader context of pledge adoption, hosting pledges through ETP will provide an easy way for investors to obtain the proceeds of the pledge, while chain-based, non-trusted guarantees of a mobile nature have a unique advantage in the composition of the DeFi ecology. We anticipate that this twin-track structure will persist for some time。
Chart 17: Proof of interest (PoS)
Red Harrings, 2026
We expect that all the above-mentioned investment themes will have a real impact on the development of the encryption market in 2026. But there are also two topics, which we do not believe will substantially influence the trend of the encryption market next year, despite the high volume of discussions: the potential threat of quantum computing to cryptography, and the evolution of Digital Asset Treasury (DATs). The markets will invest heavily on these two issues, but in our view they are not the core variables that determine market prospects。
About quantum calculations
If technological advances in quantum computing continue, most block chains will eventually require upgrading of their password systems. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer may reverse private keys through a public key, thus generating valid digital signatures and transferring user assets. As a result, Bitcoin and the vast majority of the block chains, and indeed the entire modern system of economy, relying on cryptography, require a transition to a later quantum cryptography tool in the long term. However, it was generally agreed that quantum computers with the capability to decipher bitcoin passwords might not appear until 2030 at the earliest. We expect that research and community-level preparations around quantum risk will accelerate in 2026, but this subject is unlikely to have a real impact on prices in the short term。
On Digital Asset Treasury (DATs)
The strategy launched by Michael Saylor to "incorporate digital assets into the corporate balance sheet" led to dozens of emulations in 2025. According to our estimates, DATs currently hold 3.7 per cent of the total supply of bitcoin, 4.6 per cent of the total supply of the utco, and 2.5 per cent of Solana. However, since the peak in mid-2025, market demand for such tools has cooled: the largest DAT is now at a level close to 1.0 (see chart 18)。
It should be noted that most DATs are not over-leveraging (or even completely unleveraging) and are therefore less likely to be forced to sell assets when markets go down. DAT, Strategy, which is the largest in market value terms, has recently established a reserve fund in United States dollars to ensure that its preferred dividends will continue to be paid even if the prices of Bitcoin fall. We expect that most DATs will act closer to closed funds: trading within floating zones up or down the net value, with occasional premiums or discounts, with little initiative in liquidating assets。
In general, such tools are likely to become a long-term component of encrypted investment maps, but in our view they are unlikely to be a major source of demand for new tokens in 2026 or a significant source of depression。
CHART 18: DAT PREMIUM LEVELS HAVE DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE-SCALE ASSET SALES IS LOW
Conclusions
WE HAVE A POSITIVE VIEW OF THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL ASSETS IN 2026, WHICH AT ITS CORE UNDERPINS A RESONANCE FROM TWO FORCES: THE CONTINUING DEMAND FOR ALTERNATIVE VALUE STORAGE TOOLS AT THE MACRO LEVEL AND THE INCREASING REGULATORY CLARITY. THE KEY THEME FOR THE COMING YEAR IS LIKELY TO BE THE FURTHER DEEPENING OF CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN BLOCK-CHAIN FINANCE AND TRADITIONAL FINANCE, AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL. OBTAINING THE TOKENS USED BY THE AGENCY OFTEN HAS A CLEAR APPLICATION LANDSCAPE, A SUSTAINABLE INCOME MODEL AND ACCESS TO COMPLIANCE TRADING VENUES AND APPLICATION SYSTEMS. INVESTORS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE RANGE OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS THAT CAN BE INVESTED THROUGH ETP AND THE DEFAULT INTRODUCTION OF THE PLEDGE MECHANISM IF CONDITIONS PERMIT。
AT THE SAME TIME, THE REGULATORY CLARITY AND INSTITUTIONALIZATION PROCESS WILL RAISE THE THRESHOLD OF ACCESS TO MAINSTREAM SUCCESS. FOR EXAMPLE, NEW REGISTRATION AND INFORMATION DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ENCRYPTION PROJECTS TO ENTER A REGULATED EXCHANGE. INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO IGNORE THE LACK OF CLEAR EXAMPLES OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS, EVEN IF THEY CURRENTLY HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH MARKET VALUE. THE GENIUS ACT MAKES A CLEAR DISTINCTION AT THE LEGAL LEVEL BETWEEN REGULATED, PAID AND STABLE CURRENCIES (WITH CORRESPONDING RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE UNITED STATES LEGAL FRAMEWORK) AND OTHER, STABLE CURRENCIES (WITH NO EQUIVALENT RIGHTS). SIMILARLY, WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE INSTITUTIONAL AGE OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS WILL FURTHER WIDEN THE GAP BETWEEN ASSETS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE CHANNELS OF COMPLIANCE, THOSE THAT HAVE THE CAPITAL OF THEIR COUNTERPART, AND THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE EQUAL ACCESS。
The encryption industry is entering a completely new phase, and not every token can successfully complete the transition from the old to the new era。
