Would it be possible to crack future gold prices if all of the people who were the most predictable in history were brought together? I've done the best analysis in 10 years
If I find all the people who have predicted a financial product — gold, for example — the most authoritative institutions, the most famous analysts in history, and compare each of their predictions with the actual results, find out who's the best and see how these “best people” look at the future now..
Do I have access to the financial asset code
With that idea, I really did. Take the gold as a sample and take the predictions for over a decade。
FOR THIS STUDY, WE BROUGHT OUT THREE CATEGORIES OF PEOPLE: THE TOP INVESTMENT AND INDUSTRY AGENCIES ON WALL STREET, THE BIGGEST V IN THE GOLDEN TRACK, AND THE KEY "FACEMAN" WHO ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE REVERSE。
We look at data one by one。
All the projections we've got are out
Wall Street Professionals:
- LBMA (LONDON ASSOCIATION OF GOLD AND SILVER MARKETS)Dozens of top analysts are invited each year to make annual projections of gold. In 2025, the average projection given by 28 analysts was $2,735 ounces. Keisuke (Bill) Okui, the most optimistic analyst of the year, gave $2,925 because "nearest real" won the "most accurate prediction award."。
Real average price of gold in 2025$3,431。
In other words, the highest-visibility and final award-winning analyst in the whole market is still projected to be 15 per cent below the actual level. The market consensus, on the other hand, underestimated a full 20 per cent。
- Goldman SachsThere are two records of heavy color in gold prediction history. In April 2013, the Goldman Sachs report clearly recommended empty gold with a target of $1,450. Gold then fell by 26 per cent, and Goldman Sachs sealed it。
But recently, Goldman turned over the car. In October 2024, Goldman Sachs projected a gold price of $2,700 for 2025. What about actual? The price of gold in 2025 went wild, breaking $5,600 in early 2026. Almost double。
- Morgan ChaseAt the end of 2025, a benchmark of $5,055 was given for 2026 gold prices. As a result, the price of the gold went beyond that level in advance。
GOLDEN PLATEAU V:
- Peter SchiffThe gold ring's most famous "Always look at more" players. More than a decade ago, it was "$5,000 gold". The price of gold in 2013-2018 was five or six years old, and he was scolded every day and ridiculed as a "stop clock". But the gold price did break $5,600 in early 2026. He's been screaming for over a decade and finally right。
- Jim RogersThe legendary investor in the commodity market. Gold was projected to rise to more than $2,000 in the early 2010s, when it was considered out of proportion. Now it looks like he's headed in the right direction, but it's been ten years。
- Mike Maloney"Money history" video creator, deep gold. Long-term projections of a serious underestimation of gold will eventually return to historical real monetary values. Projections for the period 2015-2020 have been tested by the market as overly optimistic. After 2020, the price started to be considered "at last right."。
Questioner:
- Nouriel RobiniThe most famous was the accurate forecast of the financial crisis in 2008. Gold: The 2013 gold price fell from $1,900, and he said "continue to be empty" between $1,500 and $1,600, and the gold price fell through the $1,200 low point, perfect proof. In January 2023, the price of gold hovered at $1,900, which he increased to a projected annual increase of 10 per cent over five years, with a target of $3,000. The price of gold was much higher。
- Ben McMillan(Chief Investment Officer, IDX Advisors), emerging from recent developments. At the beginning of 2024, gold was near $2,000, and he projected to reach $5,000 over five years. The market felt "almost crazy." As a result, the gold price was only a year and a half。
- Ray Dalio(founder of the Bridge Water Fund), without characterization of specific prices from a macro-cyclical perspective. Gold was referred to as the "second largest currency" in January 2026, with a proposed portfolio of 5-15 per cent。
After reading the data, do you think that some people are good
Take it easy. It's just "the most famous times." When I put them in..Full recordPull it out, it's different。
Wall Street Professionals: Typical Delay Forecast
What do you mean, "slow"? It was the cattle market that had arrived that they had begun to raise the target price; however, the increase would never catch up with the real increase. By the time Bear City arrived, they started to lower, but always too slow。
THE BEST EXAMPLE IS THE 28 ANALYSTS OF LBMA. AN ANNUAL PROJECTION IS ESSENTIALLY A SMALL EXTRAPOLATION OF "THE TRENDS THAT HAVE TAKEN PLACE". THE GOLD PRICE IN 2024 HAS RISEN TO $2,700, AND THEIR PROJECTION FOR 2025 IS ONLY A MEDIAN OF $2,735-- IT'S ALMOST LIKE MOVING LAST YEAR'S CLOSING PRICE AS A FORECAST. THE RESULT WAS AN AVERAGE PRICE OF $3,431 IN 2025, 20 PER CENT IN THE FACE。
Goldman Sachs is the same model. At the end of 2024, only $2,700 was paid in 2025, and the gold price was then washed over $5,000. Morgan Chase gave $5,055 in base price, and the gold price broke early。
What they're doing is more accurately called ** "Trend confirmation."* * — Tell you that what has happened does happen, but the judgement on the range is always conservative. If you wait for their signal to make a decision, you'll always slow down。
BIG V ON TRACK: TWICE A DAY FOR BROKEN CLOCKS
Peter Schiff has been shouting $5,000 in gold since a decade ago. Jim Rickards has been shouting $10,000. Kiyosaki directly shouted $35,000。
Their strategy is essentially..Every year it goes up, it goes up, "I told you," it goes down, it's "not yet."。
The more deadly question is:Such predictions do not have temporal particle size。It doesn't tell you when to get in, when to run. If you listen to Schiff in 2011, you'll have to carry five or six years of cross-breeding and loss until today. Faith in this thing doesn't stop bleeding when you lose 40%。
Enchanted: Are they really allowed
This category is the most confusing. Because they did make amazingly precise judgments at some point in time, the market gave them the halo of "prephets." But when I pulled their whole record out, it wasn't that perfect。
RobiniIn 2013 it was right, and in 2023 it was right. I caught them both. It was amazing。
But you know what he missed in the middle? When the 2009 gold price was just over $1,000, Roubini publicly said, "It's impossible to raise 20-30 percent more." The result? Gold prices went up to $1,900 in 2011, almost 90 per cent. The price was $1,200 at the end of 2009, and he said, "Looks like a bubble" and "Gold has no intrinsic value."。
The whole period 2009-2012, the Golden Bulls, Roubini, was out of place。No one has said anything about this history, but you will remember his beautiful empty space in 2013 and the increase in 2023。
Ben McMillanAt the beginning of 2024, $5,000 was projected to arrive within five years and a year and a half. The logic is based on structural changes in central bank purchases, and it is true. But the question is:This is his only widely documented prediction in the gold field。The sample quantity is just once. Did you get the ability to predict systematically at once
Ray DalioIt sounds the most stable — not predicting prices, but suggesting configuration. But you look at his macro-projection record: in 1981, convinced America of the Great Depression, shouted in newspapers, television, and congressional hearings, and it turned out so wrong that the bridge almost collapsed that you had to borrow $4,000 from your dad to pay your family bills. 2015 says, "Repeat 1937." No. In 2018, he said "two years of recession." He didn't come. October 2022 called "Perfect Storm" -- that month was the bottom of the American stock。
The financial crisis is predicted almost every two to three years, with the vast majority not occurring。But ironically, his phrase, "You don't have to forecast prices, you just have to set it at 5-15 percent," became the most useful word in everyone。
The 2011 script is repeating itself in 2026
The report contains a particularly interesting finding。
Before the 2011 gold price peaked at $1,923, the market forecast skyrocketed: at the beginning of the year, it was projected that $2,000 would double by mid-year, close to the top, Jim Sinclair shouted $12,500, and Rob Kirby shouted $15,000。The most extreme predictions occur only a few weeks from the real top。
And then the September gold price went down. The reaction of the forecasters? First, the "health amendment", then a few months later, reluctantly, the target was set at 20-30 per cent, and the timetable was postponed indefinitely。
In March 2026, gold prices dropped sharply from 5,600 to 4,200, the largest single-week drop since 1983. What was the response of the vast majority of institutions and celebrities? Maintaining the original high target price, even considering the crash as "best buy-in."。
History does not simply repeat, but the script really does。
What do they think of the future now
Now that they're all gone, let's list their latest judgments for you
People/institutions Recent predictions Core logic Roubini The previous goal of $3,000 was achieved, looking at multiple directions: inflation is expected to return to + long-term structural increase McMillan $ 10,000 in five years Central Bank gold purchase + US debt crisis + dollarization of bricks, Dalia not priced, suggesting 5-15% structural decline in statutory monetary credit Jamie Dimon may touch $10,000 Economic Concerns + Inflation + Asset Foams Peter Schiff $11,400 in three years, calling the recent fall "Unlogical" Kiyosaki $35,000, Morgan Chase $6,300, after the largest bubble in history broke down, believes that the crash is a profit-making return to smut
See? From $5,400 to $35,000The highest and lowest is nearly seven times the difference。The same market environment, the same data sources, these world's top minds can give so much less。
So, did you find the wealth code
I've done all the combing and conclusion:Not found。
THE AGENCY'S ALWAYS CHASING, BIG V'S ALWAYS SHOUTING, AND THE SEALING CONTESTANT ISN'T ALWAYS RIGHT-- THEY'RE JUST RIGHT AT CERTAIN MOMENTS, AND NOBODY REMEMBERS THEM WHEN THEY'RE WRONG. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE CATEGORIES OF PEOPLE'S PREDICTIONS NOT ONLY FAILS TO OBTAIN A MORE ACCURATE ANSWER, BUT IS EVEN MORE CONFUSING. BECAUSE THEY OFTEN CONTRADICT EACH OTHER AT THE SAME TIME。
I thought "Find the right guy and follow him" was the way. After this study, I foundThe gold predicts that there is no one who's always the right person。There's only "the man who happens to be right this time."。
At the end
One gold makes me completely dissatisfied with so-called financial experts
ALPHA CAN BE CAUGHT BY YOU, EXCEPT FOR MODELS AND DATA。
So in the end, instead of trying to crack the code of wealth, I decided to learn from Dario — not to predict specific prices, to recognize uncertainty and to use configuration to manage risk。
Gold entered the warehouse last year and will continue this year. The investment time dimension of individuals is calculated on a 10-year cycle。
