Encryption Concepts Daily Watch: Clarity Act Timeline Slides Toward the End of May, Coinbase and Circle are accumulating waiting costs
1. Why did the timeline slide from April to the end of May
The central reason for the late April markup's failure to start on schedule is not the new obstacles to the bill itself, but the objective squeeze on the Senate's agenda. The joint letter made it clear on 23 April that the Senate Banking Commission "has not yet arranged the markup" and that it was on that basis that the industry coalition put direct pressure on the Commission's leadership to "arrange and advance the markup immediately". Senator Moreno's "end of May" statement, which has not yet been officially confirmed by his office, is still the most specific public time forecast at this time. This means that the legislative window was not closed, but was lateralized by about four to six weeks. For the market, the key impact of this shift is that if the markup is not completed at the end of May, the probability of completing the legislation in 2026 will enter a truly very low range, at which point the valuation discount will be difficult to repair during the year。
2. Coinbase: Uncertainty as to how much to wait per week
For Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: $COIN), the legislative tempo of CLARISTY Act is a direct mapping of the two main lines of business with the greatest potential for growth — predicting market and stable currency gains. The joint letter explicitly called for the retention of "transactional earnings incentives linked to the payment of stable currency" and for a clear definition of the mandate of the SEC and the CTC to protect non-trust developers from being recognized as money transmission agencies. Each of these three core claims has a direct impact on the addressable market size of Coinbase. At the same time, the New York State Attorney's case of Coinbase's Forecast Market (21 April) is advancing at both federal and state levels - if CLARITY Act can establish the CFTC's federal priority jurisdiction over the incident contract, it will be Coinbase's strongest legal endorsement in state litigation. Each week of legislative delay is prolonging the valuation discount resulting from this legal uncertainty。
3. Circle: the final wording of the stable currency gains clause remains the most suspense
The business model of the Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: $CRCL) relies more solely on USDC reserve interest and ecological usage. The signatories of the joint letter explicitly supported the retention of the incentive clause relating to the payment of the stabilization currency and called for ensuring consistency in the regulation of the states and avoiding the formation of a state licensing system. For Circe, the joint letter represents the largest public solidarity of the entire industry with the "legitimacy of motivation" - This provides an unprecedented collective endorsement of its business model at the political level. "Circle Q1 2026 financial report expected11 MayPublication, if CLARITY Act completes the markup before and after the financial disclosure, will be an important catalyst for the Q2 valuation re-engineering; conversely, if legislation is delayed again, the structural discount on the Circe stock will continue to be under pressure during the financial reporting window。
Satsuma crashes and legislative advances. Deep resonance between the narratives
The two events of yesterday were apparently unrelated, but pointed to the same market judgement at a deeper level. The 99% drop in Satsuma Technology reveals the fact that when BTC prices fell from $126,000 to $60,000, there was no regulatory framework to protect aggressive corporate reserve strategies from market gravity. And the deep-seated claim of the CLARTY Act Joint Letter is precisely to provide clear boundaries for those who wish to operate digital asset operations within a compliance framework — not as risk elimination, but as a distinction between “affordable market risk” and “undue legal risk”. For the investors in Coinbase and Circle, the end-May markup results were the most important single policy anchor of the valuation path in the second half of the year, while the Satsuma warning reminds the market that excessive reliance on regulatory expectations of capital structures is being tested for vulnerability until the anchor is landed。
Data source:https://bbx.com/THE ENCRYPTION CONCEPTS INFORMATION BASE IS BASED ON YESTERDAY'S GLOBAL LISTED CORPORATE BULLETIN AND THE SEC/TSE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT。
