MEXC Alpha Trader: How do you pull the market from higher interest expectations to better systems

4th week of May 2026

Statistical cycle: 20 May - 26 May 2026

Data cut-off: 26 May 2026

Core narrative

OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE GAME BETWEEN MACRO AND REGULATORY HAS DEEPENED. THE MINUTES OF THE MAY FOMC MEETING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, PUBLISHED ON 21 MAY, CONFIRMED THE MARKET'S MOST WORRYING SHIFT — A SUMMARY SHOWING THAT SOME MEMBERS HAD BEGUN TO DISCUSS “THE OPTION OF RE-INCLUSION OF INTEREST RATES IF INFLATION CONTINUED TO BE HIGH”. 30 THE ANNUAL US DEBT RATE OF RETURN STOOD AT 5.10 PER CENT, AND THE IMPLICIT CME INTEREST RATE INCREASE OF DECEMBER ROSE TO 35 PER CENT IN THE WEEK, A NEW HIGH SINCE 2026。

AT THE SAME TIME, ENCRYPTION LEGISLATION HAS LED TO KEY DEVELOPMENTS. ON 22 MAY, THE MAJORITY LEADER OF THE SENATE ANNOUNCED THE INCLUSION OF THE CARITY BILL IN THE PLENARY VOTING SCHEDULE, WITH A FINAL VOTE EXPECTED IN EARLY JUNE. THE MARKET'S EXPECTATION OF THE PASSAGE OF THE BILL HAS SHIFTED FROM “POSSIBILITY” TO “CERTAINTY”, BUT THE BENEFITS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE MACRO-SHADOWS OF TIGHT LIQUIDITY。

BITCOIN'S GOING DOWN THIS WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF REBOUND TO US$ 78,500 ON 20 MAY, THE PRICE FELL AGAIN AS THE FALCON LANGUAGE OF THE FOMC MINUTES WENT OUT, AND ON 23 MAY IT FELL TO THE FULL THRESHOLD OF US$ 75,000, WITH A MINIMUM TOUCH OF US$ 74,200, A NEW LOW SINCE FEBRUARY. THE US$ 2,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL PASS WAS LOST AT THE SAME TIME AS THE TAIFENG. AS OF 26 MAY, THE BITCOIN INTERIM REPORT WAS $74,800, AND THE ENCRYPTED MARKET PANIC AND GREED INDEX REMAINED AT 28 (BETWEEN PANIC ZONES)。

The geopolitics dimension shows signs of decomposition. On May 20, the US and Iran resumed indirect negotiations in Oman, and oil prices fell from the topBrent crude oilRETURN TO $105 PER BARREL, WTI OIL REPORT 101 PER BARREL. HOWEVER, MARKETS HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE OUTCOME OF THE NEGOTIATIONS, AND OIL PRICES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE THE LEVEL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR。

On the American stock side, the financial report released on May 22 was mixed – the battalion received a slight gain above expectations, but the next quarter was less guided by the most optimistic expectations, and post-mortem prices fluctuated sharply. The monetization of the NVDAON synchronized charge. Overall, the market is still digesting the new pattern of “higher for longer”。

I. Core developments in encrypted markets

1. INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS: ETF SLOWS OUT BUT STILL NET OUT, WITH A RARE SINGLE-DAY ZERO INFLOW IN BELET

Bitcoin spot ETF's throws continued at the beginning of the week, but later in the week abated. According to Farside Investors and Coinglass, the total net outflows for the four trading days from 20 to 23 May were about $420 million, of which $180 million were net outflows on 20 May and $150 million on 21 May. On May 22 and 23, the outflows narrowed to $60 million and $300 million respectively. On 24 May, the market recorded a small net inflow of about US$ 0.22 billion, which was being made on a single day since 13 May。

BELET IBIT SHOWED ON MAY 22 A RARE RECORD OF ZERO NET SINGLE-DAY INFLOWS SINCE ITS LAUNCH, SHOWING THAT EVEN THE MOST DETERMINED INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS CHOSE TO WAIT AND SEE IN THE FACE OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY. GREYSCALE GTTC CONTINUES TO EJECT, BUT THE RATE OF OUTFLOWS HAS DROPPED FROM A PEAK OF $200 MILLION PER DAY TO ABOUT $0.55 BILLION。

AS AT 26 MAY, THE TOTAL CUMULATIVE NET INFLOWS OF BITCOIN ETF REMAINED AT APPROXIMATELY $58.5 BILLION, A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE ETF CONTINUES THE NET OUTFLOW TREND, WHICH IS ABOUT $120 MILLION THIS WEEK。

With regard to derivatives markets, the cumulative figure for the current week was approximately $650 million, of which multiple single explosions accounted for about 75 per cent. On 23 May, Bitcoin fell by $75,000 and exploded $280 million on the same day, reducing the market leverage rate。

Price performance: Bitcoin fell to new lows since February, 75,000 dollars into empty watersheds

Bitcoin price trends this week can be divided into two phases:

PHASE I (20-22 MAY): REACTIONAL INEFFICIENCY, SECONDARY BOTTOM DETECTION. AFTER A SHARP FALL IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK, ON MAY 20TH BITCOIN TRIED TO REBOUND TO $78,500, BUT THE TURNOVER WAS CLEARLY INSUFFICIENT. ON MAY 21ST, FOLLOWING THE FOMC MINUTES, THE PRICES ROSE RAPIDLY. ON 22 MAY, IT WENT FURTHER TO THE VICINITY OF $76,000, WHICH WAS AT RISK。
Phase II (23-26 May): Breaking $75,000 and testing $74,000 for support. On May 23rd, at the time of the Disc, Bitcoin officially fell by $75,000, with a minimum touch of $74,200. The next two trading days were 74,500-75,500 United States dollars (US$) tremors. 75,000 dollars from psychological support to short-term resistance。

The ETH/BTC exchange rate fell to 0.026, the lowest since 2024. Solana fell 85 dollars and XRP withdrew to below 1.30 dollars。

Source: CoinGecko, MEXC

On the technical side, the Bitcoin dayline RSI is in the vicinity of 35 and has not yet entered the oversale area (below 30), meaning that there is still room to go down. The next support band is in the $72,000-73,000 area (lower point of multiple tests since 2001), if confirmed to be effective. The probability of a drop of $70,000 by the end of the year and a drop of $75,000 is 89 per cent。

3. STABLE CURRENCY: TOTAL MARKET VALUE EXCEEDED $322.5 BILLION AND USDC CONTINUED TO EXPAND

THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF THE STABLE CURRENCY MARKET WAS OVER $322.5 BILLION THIS WEEK. THE MARKET VALUE OF USDT WAS ABOUT $190.5 BILLION, WITH A SMALL DECLINE IN THE MUNICIPAL RATE TO 58.73 PER CENT; USDC MARKET VALUE EXCEEDED $80 BILLION, REACHING APPROXIMATELY $80.5 BILLION, AND THE MUNICIPAL RATE ROSE TO 24.8 PER CENT. THE CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE USDC REFLECTS THE INSTITUTIONAL PREFERENCE FOR A COMPLIANCE STABILIZATION CURRENCY, PARTICULARLY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEAR-VOTING VOTE ON THE CLARITY BILL。

On May 23rd, Circe made 200 million more USDCs again in the ITA host network, with a cumulative increase of 350 million this week. The SUSDS total lockout exceeded $12 billion and became one of the fastest-growing assets in the DeFi field。

II. Global asset performance

1. EQUITY MARKET: FOMC SUMMARY PRESSES RISK PREFERENCES, NAY-LINE FALLING

THE FOMC PROCEEDINGS OF MAY 21ST WERE PUBLISHED. THE SUMMARY SHOWS: “SOME PARTICIPANTS NOTED THAT IF INFLATION FAILS TO RETURN AS EXPECTED, THE COMMISSION MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FURTHER TIGHTENING OF POLICIES.” THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2026 THAT AN EXPLICIT REFERENCE TO THE “EXTENSION” AS A POTENTIAL OPTION HAS BEEN MADE IN OFFICIAL RECORDS。

Following the publication of the summary, the three indicators of the United States share were downlined. As of May 23rd, the cut-off of the Standard 500 index was 1.5% per week and the fall of the NASDAQ index was 2.2% per week, ending two consecutive weeks of growth. The chip plate fell, the Philly semiconductor index dropped 3.5% a week。

AFTER 22 MAY, THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS WERE RELEASED: $38.2 BILLION, COMPARED TO +68 PER CENT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PROJECTED $38 BILLION; BUT THE NEXT QUARTERLY COLLECTION GUIDELINES, $39-40 BILLION, WERE LOWER THAN THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ESTIMATE OF $42 BILLION. AFTER A 3% DROP IN THE STOCKBOARD, TOKENIZED NVDAON CO-ORDINATED WEAK. THE NEWSPAPER HD, PUBLISHED ON MAY 20, SHOWED THAT THE SAME STORE SALES WERE BELOW EXPECTATIONS, REFLECTING THE WEAKENING OF UNITED STATES PROPERTY-RELATED CONSUMPTION IN A HIGH INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT。

2. Large commodities: high oil prices fell and gold fell and rose

Crude oilThe news of the resumption of indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran on May 20 has allayed concerns about supply interruptions. WTI crude oil fell from $107 per barrel at the beginning of the week to $101 per barrel on 23 May and Brent crude oil fell from $112 per barrel to $105 per barrel. However, on May 25, the market passed on the lack of breakthroughs in the negotiations, and oil prices rebounded slightly to WTI 103 per barrel. The whole week fell by about 4%。

Gold: an expected increase in interest rate temperature at a time when gold prices were under pressure, on May 21, COMEX gold futures fell to US$ 4,520/ounce. However, as the dollar index fell from a high level (from 105.8 to 105.2), gold rebounded after 23 May. As of May 26th, COMEX gold reported approximately US$ 4,600 per ounce, with a slight weekly increase of 0.5%. Silver performance is strong, COMEX Silver News 79.5 US$/ounce, 1.8% weekly increase。

3. Bond markets: 30 years of steady return on United States debt 5 per cent above, further upwards in interest rate pricing

30 The annual United States Treasury debt return rate reached 5.12 per cent this week at 5.08 per cent and stood at 5 per cent. 2 The annual rate of return on United States debt rose to 4.45 per cent and the annual rate of return on United States debt rose to 4.62 per cent. The yield curve has deepened, and market concerns about economic prospects coexist with persistent expectations of inflation。

The CME Fedwatch tool shows that as of 26 May, the probability of an increase of 25 basis points in December 2026 was 35 per cent and the probability of an increase of 50 basis points was 8 per cent. A month ago, the figures were 2 per cent and 0 per cent, respectively. The market has been fully priced and no interest rate declines until September。

The up-line MEXC monetized national debt product TLTON (iShares 20+-year United States Treasury debt ETF) has significantly amplified its turnover, reflecting the increased demand for hedging expected by users for interest rates。EEMON/USDTI don't knowEFAON/USDTI don't knowINDAON/USDTWHEN THE INTERNATIONAL ETF TRANSACTIONS ARE ONLINE。

III. Depth analysis of key themes

THEME ONE: THE CLARITY BILL IS ON THE COUNTDOWN TO THE PLENARY VOTE — CAN THE SYSTEM DIVIDEND COUNTER THE MACROWIND

ON 22 MAY, THE MAJORITY LEADER OF THE SENATE ANNOUNCED THE INCLUSION OF THE CARITY BILL IN THE PLENARY VOTING SCHEDULE, WITH A FINAL BALLOT SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK OF 2 JUNE. THE BILL WAS PREVIOUSLY PASSED BY THE SENATE BANKING COMMISSION BY 15-9 AND BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES BY 294-134. AS BOTH PARTIES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SUPPORTERS, IT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT THE BILL WILL BE PASSED BY MORE THAN 60 VOTES IN THE SENATE AND EVENTUALLY SENT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR SIGNATURE。

Institutional impact on markets:

REGULATORY CERTAINTY PREMIUM: THE BILL WILL CLARIFY THE BOUNDARIES OF THE JURISDICTION OF THE SEC AND THE CFTC OVER DIGITAL ASSETS, IN PARTICULAR THE DEFINITION OF “WHICH TOKENS ARE COMMODITIES”, AND ASSETS PREVIOUSLY CHALLENGED BY THE SEC, SUCH AS XRP, SOL, MAY BE GIVEN LEGAL “CLEAN HANDS” STATUS. THIS WEEK, XRP FIGHTS DOWN, ACTS BETTER THAN BITCOIN。
The entry threshold for traditional financial institutions has been lowered: banks and registered brokers can conduct encryption operations in compliance with a clear legal framework for trusteeship, liquidation and transaction enforcement. It is expected that a new round of institutional inflows will take place within 6-12 months of the adoption of the bill。
Short- and long-term mismatches: In the current context of macro-austerity, institutional probabilities are more reflected in the “falling buffer” than in the “up engine”. Historical experience has shown that the price boost of regulatory clarity is usually seen gradually within three to six months of the Act ' s fall。

Theme II: Federal Reserve minutes confirm the “extension option” - interest rate replacement expected near completion

IN MAY, THE FOMC MINUTES WERE WRITTEN IN MORE HAWKS THAN THE MARKET HAD ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE DISCUSSION ON THE “GROWER OPTION”, THE SUMMARY ALSO REFERS TO “THE LABOUR MARKET REMAINS TENSE AND SERVICES INFLATION IS SLOWLY DE-INFLATING”. CORE PCE DATA FOR APRIL WILL BE RELEASED ON 29 MAY (ON THURSDAY) AND THE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3.0 PER CENT PER YEAR。

Meaning of encrypted assets:

VALUATION MODEL REFORMULATED: ENCRYPTED ASSETS ARE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO ACTUAL INTEREST RATES AS ZERO-INTEREST RISK ASSETS. 30 THE REAL RATE OF RETURN ON ANNUAL UNITED STATES DEBT (TIPS) ROSE FROM 1.8 PER CENT IN APRIL TO 2.1 PER CENT, AND THE “DIGITAL GOLD” NARRATIVE OFBITCOIN POSED A CHALLENGE。
(B) INCREASED PRESSURE ON MINERS: BITCOIN PRICES FELL TO $74,000-75,000 AND WERE CLOSE TO THE CUT-OFF LINE FOR SOME OLD MINERS (ASSUMING ELECTRICITY COSTS OF 0.07 PER DEGREE, THE ANTS S19 SERIES COST ABOUT $72,000). IF PRICES GO FURTHER DOWN, THEY MAY TRIGGER MINERS TO SELL, CREATING A NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CYCLE。
STABILIZED CURRENCY LENDING RATES HAVE RISEN: WITH THE EXPECTED RISE IN INTEREST RATES, USDC/USDT DEPOSIT RATES IN CHAIN LENDING AGREEMENTS HAVE RISEN FROM 4 PER CENT TO 5.5 PER CENT, AND THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF HOLDING CASH HAS INCREASED。

Theme III: Opening of the United States-Iraq negotiating window, geo-risk premium phase Fall Back

On 20 May, the United States and I resumed indirect negotiations with the good offices of the Sultanate of Oman, with the goal of achieving a 60-day “suspension of hostilities” and the opening of part of the Strait of Hormuz. After the news came out, oil prices fell by more than 5 per cent a day. On May 25, however, the Iranian side stated that “the American proposal does not meet Iran’s core concerns” and that the news of an impasse in the negotiations has rebounded oil prices。

Market outlook: The energy market is still cutting between “negotiating optimism” and “the reality of supply failures”. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than 40 days, and global oil stocks are being depleted at an accelerated rate. Even if the negotiations were partially advanced, it would take weeks to restore 17 million barrels per day. Oil prices are expected to maintain a high run of $100-115 per barrel over the next month, continuing to support inflation。

Market hotspots

Core focus for the coming week

FINANCIAL CALENDAR (20-26 MAY, SPT)

NOTE: THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MONETIZED ASSETS ARE ALREADY ON THE MEXC SPOT MARKET, WITH THE FIRST 30 DAYS OF EACH BATCH OF NEW ONLINE VARIETIESZero chargesPreferential。

VI. Developments in the Platform

1. New and sustained acceleration: SpaceX Pre-IPO, Nexus, Samsung and SK Hercules contract for renewal

THIS WEEK, THE NEW MEXC SPEEDS UP FURTHER, COVERING THREE MAIN TRACKS: FIRST-TIER MARKETS, EMERGING PUBLIC CHAINS AND TRADITIONAL EQUITY:

SpaceX Pre-IPO Launchpad: May 20, MEXC launched SpaceX Pre-IPO Launchpad campaign with 7,700 copiesSPACEX(PRE)Currency, priced 650 USDT or USD1, subscription continued until 21 May. The token is intended to allow users to obtain economic openings linked to SpaceX valuations in advance and to trade freely in the spot market once the token has been distributed without locking up. The entire subscription and transaction process is free of charge。
Nexus (NEX) online: May 20, MEXC Innovation Area officially on line Layer 1 public chain Nexus (NEX), openNEX/USDTandNEX/USDCWe're on the spotNEXUSDTThe contract is sustainable (up to 20 times leverage). The total supply of the project, which combines zero knowledge validation with original order books, amounts to 10 trillion, with a high degree of volatility at the beginning of the line, requiring a risk-based approach by users of the appraisal area。
SAMSUNG AND KK HERCULES CONTRACT FOR ETERNITY: MAY 20, MEXC OFFICIALLY GOES ONLINE WITH TRISTAR ELECTRONICSSAMSUNGUSDT) AND SK HELI ()SKHYNIXUSDTIT'S A PERMANENT CONTRACT. THAT SAME NIGHT, THE SOUTH KOREAN CHIP STOCK ROSE DRAMATICALLY — A SHARP 8.51 PER CENT INCREASE IN THREE-STAR ELECTRONIC CLOSINGS AND A 11.17 PER CENT INCREASE IN SK HERCULES CLOSINGS. THE MONETIZATION CONTRACT ALLOWS INVESTORS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE KOREAN CHIP TAP WITHOUT OFFSHORE ACCOUNTS。

2. Continuous upgrading of benefits: the pizza festival was accompanied by two major events, with multiple gifts continuing

IT'S THE BITCOIN PIZZA FESTIVALSpecial event on Pizza Day", from the date of the event until 5 June, using Apple Pay or Google Pay to purchase a digitized currency at a rate of 0, the new user will first buy 100 USDT and receive 10 USDT airdrops, ranking 300 in the top of the net purchase volume, to participate in the 15,000 USDT rankings."- city run;"THE COOL GAME IS SYNCHRONIZED. USERS CAN COLLECT PIZZA COUPONS FOR THEIR DAILY ASSIGNMENTS OF SIGNING, FILLING AND TRADING, AND ENTER THE DIFFERENT DIFFICULT TRACKS. 100% OF THE AWARD IS AWARDED, WITH A MAXIMUM OF 1 BTC, GOLD TOKEN XAUT, CONTRACT BONUS AND PERIMETER LIMIT。

Disclaimer: This report is for study only and does not constitute any investment proposal. The price volatility of encrypted assets and geopolitical events and macroeconomic changes could have a significant impact on markets. Investors should make independent judgements based on their own risk tolerance. Any Platform products or transactions mentioned in the report are valid and present only objective data and do not constitute recommendations for purchase or sale。