AI PC WAR: NO CAMP, NO TOLL STATION

Roger Lee |BIT, American Stock Exchange Analyst

21 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN INVESTMENT, MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, WITH A LONG-TERM FOCUS ON AI INDUSTRIAL CHAIN, MACRO-MARINESS AND OPTIONS STRATEGY STUDIES。

Yin Weida and UCDC entered AI PC, ostensibly consuming PC with a new set of chips, essentially Windows end-side AI ecology competing from single-point test water to multiplayer. My judgment is that this war should not be reduced to a “x86 against Arm” religious station; what really deserves to be studied is who can cross the switch cycle and continue to access Maori, cash flow and chain pricing。

I'LL SEE AI PC AS A THREE-TIER OPPORTUNITY:

• THE FIRST LEVEL IS AN ADVANCED FEE STATION. WHOEVER WINS, TSMC IS EASIER TO CROSS. FEES
• The second level is algorithms and platform spills. AMD and NVDA represent x86 offensives and GPU stack extensions, respectively
• THE THIRD LEVEL IS THE PROLIFERATION OF STRUCTURES AND THE REVERSAL OF DILEMMAS, WITH THE ELASTICITY OF ARM AND INTC, BUT THE SILO DISCIPLINE MUST BE STRICTER

I. INDUSTRY JUDGEMENT: AI PC FROM CONCEPT TO EXPORT CERTIFICATION PERIOD

Gartner, which had projected in 2024 that in 2025 the volume of AI PC shipments would reach 1142.5 million, or 43 per cent of the PC market; after updating in 2025, it was projected that the tariff and procurement rhythm disturbance would be modified to 77.792 million, or 31 per cent, but in 2026 it was still expected to reach 1431.1 million, or 54.7 per cent. This set of data does not inspire “AI PC demand perjury”, but rather short-term rhythm fluctuations and long-term calibration directions remain unchanged。

FROM AN INVESTMENT POINT OF VIEW, THE REAL DIFFICULTY FOR AI PC IS NOT "NO NPU," BUT WHETHER THE USER IS WILLING TO EXPERIENCE A SWITCH FOR LOCAL AI. IF THE APPLICATION LEVEL IS CONFINED TO MINUTES, PHOTO GENERATION AND SIMPLE ASSISTANTS, THE FLEXIBILITY OF THE SWITCH IS LOWER THAN THE MARKET'S MOST OPTIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS; BUT IF THE ENTERPRISE BEGINS TO USE PRIVACY CALCULATIONS, LOW-DELAYED REASONING AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE BASE DEPLOYMENT AS STANDARD CONFIGURATIONS, AI PC WILL MOVE FROM CONSUMER ELECTRONIC STORIES TO BUSINESS IT UPDATES。

II. COMPETITION PLACE: CHECK AT THE CHECK AND CHECKING Fees

The surface narrative of AI PC is Arm challenges x 86, but I'm more concerned about where the profit pools are moving. NVIDIA is strong in GPU and AI software warehouse, AMD is strong in x86 CPU and GPU, high-intensity is strong in low power and communication, and Intel is strong in stock ecology and business channels. They each have advantages, but common ground is clear:High-end chips can't get past advanced programmingI don't know。

TrendForce disclosed that in the second quarter of 2025, global round-generation earnings were approximately $41.7 billion, with a TSMC share of 70.2 per cent; in the fourth quarter of 2025, global round-generation earnings were about $46.3 billion, with a TSMC share of about 70.4 per cent. This means that as long as the AI PC, the AI server, the mobile AP and the edge AI chip continue to compete for advanced programming, TSMC is not a simple periodic unit, but more like the toll entrance of the entire AI hardware age。

I DON'T THINK EVERY NEW PRODUCT RELEASE IS WORTH PURSUING, BUT I THINK EVERY TIME THERE IS INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE INDUSTRIAL CHAIN, ONE QUESTION SHOULD BE ASKED: IF THE WINNER IS NOT SURE, WHO CAN CHARGE ALL THE WINNERS? IN THIS LINE OF AI PC, MY ANSWER IS STILLADVANCED PROGRAMMING, CONTAINMENT, KEY IP AND PLATFORM SOFTWAREinstead of simply placing a structured slogan。

Intel/ARM

About a year and a half of the calibration has been traded in advance for AI PC, end-end AI and algorithm spills. Yahoo Finance Day price shows that AMD, Intel, ARM and TSM are more flexible within the sample range, but they represent different risk returns. My approach is not to buy all AI PC-related objects together, but to layer them according to certainty, valuation discipline and industry chain location。

My core conclusion is simple: it is not a war that buys only winners, but a war that buys a toll station, a platform, a definite cash flow. If the market fills up the mood on the day of the press release, I prefer to wait; if I return to pull back the company's risk gains back to a reasonable range, I give priority to TSM and AMD, and then to ARM and Intel。

Risk tips

The risks of this main line cannot be ignored:

FIRST, AI PC APPLICATIONS MAY FALL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS, RESULTING IN AN UNIMAGINABLY STRONG REPLACEMENT CYCLE。

Second, the narrative of the Windows on Arm's compatibility will be suppressed if it is too slow。

THIRDLY, TARIFFS, SUSPENSION OF ENTERPRISE PROCUREMENT AND MACRO-UNCERTAINTY AFFECT PC DEMAND。

FOURTH, THERE MAY ALSO BE VALUATION REVERSALS IN TSMC IF THERE IS A PHASED MISMATCH BETWEEN ADVANCED SUPPLY AND DEMAND。

FIFTH, THE ENTIRE AI CHAIN IS OVERVALUED, AND ONCE THE US EQUITY RISK PREFERENCE DECLINES, THE MOST RESILIENT TARGET TENDS TO BE THE FASTEST。

SO I'M MORE INCLINED TO THINK OF AI PC AS A LONG-TERM INDUSTRIAL MIGRATION THAN A SHORT-TERM NEWS DEAL. THE REAL PROFESSIONAL METHOD OF BUYING IS NOT TO BUY SLOGANS ON THE DAY OF THE CONFERENCE, BUT TO BUY ECOLOGY, TO BUY A TOLL STATION, AND TO BUY A COMPANY THAT CAN CASH THE CASH FLOW ON A SUSTAINABLE BASIS。

THE REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY THE INVITED ANALYSTS. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE REPORT REPRESENT ONLY THE INDIVIDUAL POSITION OF THE AUTHOR AND NOT THE VIEWS OF THE BIT PLATFORM. THIS MATERIAL IS FOR REFERENCE PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION。