Trade code for becoming the leading actor: the path of change from bystanders to powermakers
Everyone has experienced a crisis of confidence, self-doubt and paralysis, the difference being that they have found their confidence。
Everyone has experienced a crisis of confidence, self-doubt and paralysis, the difference being that they have found their confidence。
submitted by: tradinghoe
Photo by AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Confidence is the most important quality of successful traders. You must be able to deal with the market in the same direction or in the opposite direction, in accordance with your beliefs。
Don't be the market denominator
Back in the 1950s, Solomon Ash did a series of experiments on how individuals can change their views to be more submissive。
In these experiments, actors pretend that lines of varying lengths are equal in length to see whether individual non-employed actors follow the consensus of the group alone. In about 33 percent of the cases, the subjects will accept the obvious error of the actors. The purpose of this experiment is to demonstrate how vulnerable we are as human beings to consensus, even if we know that the truth is the opposite。
Obviously, there are many similarities between the experiment and the transaction。
Ash's experiment from the crowd segment
Spiral decline: When confidence breaks
The loss of confidence did not come with a catastrophic moment, but was gradually eroded。
You're starting to doubt the deal you've never hesitated to trust before. You saw the opportunity in advance; the graphics look good, narratives are forming, basics match, crowds are still behind, but something has got you back. And then you're going to miss it。
You're in the vortex of self-doubt。
This creates a vicious circle, which looks like this:
Lost opportunity, lost confidence, more hesitation, lost opportunity. Confidence is further eroded
You're not making a bad deal, you're avoiding any deal. Or worse, your space is so small that even if you do it right, it doesn't affect the net account. You've become a bystander in your trade life, watching people trade first and first。
What's the cruel part? You know well that the deal is good, that narrative exists, and that it is a bright new thing. Your analysis is reliable, but you can't trust yourself to act。
Confidence, faith, capital
There is a chain reaction that separates successful traders from eternal bystanders:
Confidence breeds faith。
You can't get involved without faith. The opportunity is there, everything is right, and you've seen it before in the same way, but you can't pull the trigger。
Your hand hangs over the buy-in button and you convince yourself to give up. "Maybe I'll wait for confirmation. "Let me see if anyone else is talking about this. "What if I'm wrong? I don't know
Confidence separates signals from noise。
When you believe in your own judgment, you can hold on to it at the development stage, and most people on encrypted Twitter did not find it; you are waiting for them to follow this new narrative。
You are early because you have faith in taking action while others are watching。
Everything. What most traders do not realize, however, is that most narratives do not appear in a fully structured manner. They are not made out of empty space, but they are accompanied by a neat bow。
Someone must be the first to come forward
The narrative was born following a simple formula:
Bright new things + the first confident voice + the trader who yearns for opportunity = narrative formation。
Review and study any major narratives that drive markets. Al Meta (e.g. GOAT), Solana/BCC (Meme currency), RWA play. Game ecosystems (e.g., footballdotfun) or even current x 402。
EACH BEGINS WHEN ONE DISCOVERS A TOKEN, PUBLISHES RELEVANT INFORMATION ON X OR ITS CHANNELS, AND IS CONFIDENT THAT WHEN OTHERS DO NOT CARE, IT IS。
That pioneer doesn't have more information than you, they don't have insider information。
They have more confidence。
They are willing to make a public error and to be ahead of everyone on a less obvious argument。
Periodically, the representative was born out of open trade
Look at the representatives of any cycle, those who follow to get Alpha, those who are highly respected, those who can push the market once a token code is issued。
Most of them have consolidated their reputation through an absolutely legendary open deal, which they had called out early and which they had acquired all along the way in a phenomenon-grade gain。
They bought it, they talked about it, they were right, and suddenly everyone wanted to know what they were buying。
Take Ansem and Solana for example
Ansem is one of the first to discover Solana's potential and is known for its unfailing shouting。
When you hear about the guy who bought the Sol at a dollar and held it all the way to $200, you'll think of Ansem。
Ansem's voiceout for Solana at $1
Ansem didn't just quietly buy SOL and hope he was right. He kept talking about it, he sold his space, he publicly stated his arguments, and he assumed the social risk of error when the whole population fell。
He's not trading in the dark。
SOL rose from a single digit to over $200, and Solana's Meme ecosystem erupted, and his early call for tokens increased 50, 100, or more, and Ansem became one of the most prominent traders in the cycle; not because he was smarter than others, but because he had faith, speaking his faith when things were not obvious。
That's how people are born. An open deal, a great faith, willing to make mistakes in front of everyone。
At the same time, most traders have opened up and wonder why they are losing money when they cannot even tell what they have bought or why。
They trade in the shadows and follow those who represent them without in any way adopting the benefits of openly building faith。
If you can't explain your argument, do you really have an argument? Or are you just shooting and praying
Someone has to sell the money they own
This is a disturbing truth: sometimes you have to buy a coin and tell someone。
Because if they don't know, why would they buy it
The narrative needs momentum, and momentum needs attention. Attention needs to be given to those who want to be the first to come forward, who want to speak out and take the risk of saying "it is" when things are not obvious。
If @0xmert_ can sell ZEC to his entire timeline, what prevents you from talking about the currency you bought
The difference between a token that you bought but didn't add up and a token that became narrative is not always fundamental. Sometimes, just because no one talks about it, no one creates social proof, no one puts it on the radar of other traders。
You're always missing narratives early because you're waiting for someone to create them, and you don't realize that you can be that person。
To think of it, there's the first buyer for every burgeoning coin in the air, the first person to talk about it, the first trader to bet at risk on something uncorroborated and say, "I think this might be a little bit confusing."。
The main question is not whether you can find a good deal. The question is whether you have faith in being the first to be the loud one and to bear the consequences in any case。
That's your advantage。
Confidence controls your position
There is an intangible advantage in distinguishing great traders from ordinary traders: knowing when to increase and when to reduce。
This is not from spreadsheets or Kelly formula calculators. It comes from experience-generated model recognition capabilities plus self-confidence to act accordingly。
When you make hundreds of deals, when you witness a ten-fold increase in tokens, when you're early and late, when you win and lose, you develop a hunch. You know what faith feels like。
Take the first Meme currency in the new ecosystem
You have seen this pattern unfold in multiple cycles. A new chain has been launched or gained momentum, and in a few days or weeks a Meme token has emerged as a cultural flagship for the ecosystem. It first attracted attention and became a proxy for the chain itself。
Trillions on Plasma Chain
Plasma is the first leading meme coin on the chain. If you get model recognition from a previous ecosystem launch, you know that。
Your advantage here would be to build the warehouse sufficiently early and at low cost, or to put it in a position where there is still reasonable market value for the increase。
X402 Ping in Ecosystems
The same pattern, X402 ecosystems are activated, they accumulate slowly, and Ping appears as a meme currency that attracts attention。
Take the "hot and thirsty" model, for example
Markets go through periods of drought, with no major narratives, no clear access, and traders are hungry, bored and have nowhere to deploy with cash。
Then there was a good enough thing; imperfect, but credible. Because we all yearn for a game, there was a rapid influx of mobility。
$Aster and $AVNT are perfect examples. After a period of lack of major play, traders found that these could be highly mobile competitors in different chains。
This is not just the basics, but the timing. Dealers are ready to put money on narratives。
And the pre-emptive advantage of new technology
Every cycle introduces new mechanisms, new agreements, new ways of financializing things that did not exist before. In each case, the first credible implementation of the new technologies would capture considerable attention and funding。
Take Token Strategic Release
THE AGREEMENT INTRODUCED DATS FOR THE NFT SERIES, WHICH IS A MECHANISM FOR THE FINANCIALIZATION OF NFTS。
PunkStrategy is the first policy currency to be started in an experiment related to CrystalPunks。
IF YOU RECOGNIZE THIS MODEL, YOU KNOW IT'S WORTH A LARGER SLOT。
THE MARKET VALUE OF PNKSTR HAS RISEN TO OVER $300 MILLION。
Why? Because it's Token Strategy's first DAT. It has the credibility behind Crystal Punks brand. It's a new thing that traders can understand and are willing to go in. By the time the second or third NFT DAT was launched, the new sense of wonder had disappeared and the return had been significantly reduced。
Self-confident traders sometimes do not need perfect understanding of technology. All they need to do is realize that "it's the first credible implementation of something new, and it's worth putting in place. I don't know
A confident trader can instantly assess: "It's a 0.5% position." Compare "it's a 5% slot, maybe more. You're not just gambling, you're calibrating on the basis of accumulated wisdom and trusting in your own execution。
You trust your judgment when your confidence is intact。
When confidence collapses, everything feels as vague as a bet. You have opened all the positions very small (or not at all) because you no longer believe in your ability to distinguish between high faith and marginal opportunity。
In your mind, every deal turns into a coin, even if your analysis tells you it's not。
Your advantage lies not only in finding a deal, but also in knowing how much money to invest。
Reconstruction: pre-deficit advantage
The market is always there, the money is always there, but if you lose your advantage; your belief in your ability to recognize opportunities and act, you lose the game before you lose all the money。
Before you fix your profit and loss curve, you must rebuild your confidence:
Small-scale, high faith deals
Not to make money, but to prove to yourself that you can still do it. You're retraining your brain to trust your judgment again。
Record your deal
Separate results from quality of decision-making. A good deal is still a good deal. A bad deal is still a bad deal. Focus on transaction execution itself。
Your transaction log can be a Telegram channel created for yourself, or your X account to record your transactions and ideas; some good examples are @DidiTransing, @onchainsorcerer, @real_y22 (10 million to 1 million challenges)。
Celebrate the correct execution, even if the trade results are bad
Your space is the right size. You have a basis for judgment, you manage risks. This is a victory and an acquisition of experience, regardless of profit or loss。
Remember that every dealer you respect has experienced your situation。
Everyone has experienced a crisis of confidence, self-doubt and paralysis. The difference is that they found their confidence。
They decided to trust their execution, even if they felt uncomfortable, and they made a deal they would have avoided. And when the whisper of fear in their hearts is about to slow down, they increase it. They acted and carried out their transactions without waiting for confirmation from the crowd. They see both win and lose transactions as lessons learned。
The advantage you lost long before you lost the money was the only really important advantage。
Protect it like you protect your portfolio。
Because it is。