SignalPlus Special Edition for Macro-Analytics: "The Great Rise Never Sleeping"
The United States stock surged again on Monday to record highs, with the NASDAQ index rising (+1.6 per cent) and the Standard 500 index rising by 1 per cent. The optimism of the market about China and the United States, or about a new trade agreement, the multiple layouts ahead of the seven giants of science and technology, and the expectation that the Fed would dove again, have contributed to risk preference。
As investors quickly re-enter risk assets, the rate of cross-asset fluctuations has plunged to historical lows. The global stock market is also likely to achieve a major breakthrough – evidence that seems to be breaking out of a decade-long downward trend。
The market has fully priced 25 basis points each for the Federal Reserve Conference this month and December. Although the United States macro-information has been in a virtual government information vacuum for almost a month, traders expect the Fed Chairman to release more dove signals. We anticipate that Powell will suggest that the lack of timely economic information will complicate policy formulation, thus supporting the basic assumption that the Fed has yet again reduced interest rates this month, and that a prolonged government pause could pose additional downside risks to the labour market。
As a result of this lack of information, we do not expect much new policy guidance to be put in place, and the focus will shift to the point at which quantitative austerity ends – because system liquidity has returned to “sufficient” levels. The market benchmark forecast indicates that quantitative austerity will end in the first quarter of 2026, and it may surprise pigeons if Powell announces early ending of the contraction。
BITCOIN REBOUNDED TO $115 MILLION, BUT ITS KINETIC ENERGY WAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THAT OF THE STOCK MARKET, WITH THE MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY MOVEMENTS LARGELY STALLED. WITH PRICE STABILITY, BTC’S IMPLICIT VOLATILITY HAS RECEDED, BUT ITS BIAS IS MOVING TOWARDS EQUILIBRIUM – WITH SOME BUYERS STARTING TO SET UP UPWARD RISK, GIVEN THE LARGE NUMBER OF SILOS IN RECENT MONTHS。
The current lack of short-term catalysts for encrypted currency: DATs (decentreized asset transactions) performed poorly, and ETF inflows stabilized after several consecutive quarters of growth. By the end of the year, the IPO wave was encrypted or injected into the market, but the price trend is likely to be relatively flat, given the serious loss and loss caused by the collapse of the month ' s currency。
At the same time, the substantial application of the stabilization currency has continued to gain momentum: payments transactions have departed positively from spot transactions, suggesting that more money is entering the chain for less than pure speculative purposes。
Can the Fed doves and “default-proof” US shares save the disappointing “October up”? The fire of hope will burn forever
