Source:I'm sorry
IN OCTOBER 17TH, WE DISCUSSED THE PROBABILITIES OF THE Q3/Q4 ENCRYPTION MARKET PHASE BEAR MARKET IN 2026, MAINLY ON THE BASIS OF THE DIMENSIONS OF MACRO-FACTORS, THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR, CHAIN DATA, HISTORICAL CYCLE PATTERNS, AND, AT THE END OF THE ARTICLE, BRIEFLY ADDED SOME ASPECTS THAT THE MARKET IN 2026 MIGHT NEED TO FOCUS ON。
there were a couple of little friends who might have thought after reading the article, so they left a message on the back: i can't wait for next year, i xx bought xx banknotes, can you just tell me if there's any hope of returning this year? should i keep holding it or sell it next year? & hellip; & hellip;
In fact, I've seen too many of those comments. The amount of money, risk preferences, investment targets, etc. of each individual are different, and you can bet on how to do it better than you ask someone else for an answer you don't know, so that once you lose, you can find a direct reason, for example, to blame the dice for being weak or bad。
A lot of people like to predict the rise and fall in short-term performances, and they like to justify short-term increases and drops, which are sometimes simple, so much more needs to fall, that's all. For more than eight years, one of the most important gains I've had is that the long-term logic of making money in this market is really simple, and in sum it's just one thing: buy bitcoin and hold it。
But most people still want to make money quickly, but that's a good thing. If there are fewer people like that, it's hard to get more money from the few who hold it. From that point of view, we should also be grateful to those who are impulsive。
markets are ruthless, and we should also “ relentless & rdquo; go to the market and, in a game that needs to be played against each other, do not easily base their dreams of making money or making money overnight on others, especially strangers, otherwise it is you who will be the last to get hurt – not just financial losses, but psychologically。
Of course, if you like to analyze it instead of simply looking for reasons for falling, then we'll..October 17thit is worth further development and research. today, we may wish to select one of these angles, i.e. based on & ldquo; the united states dollar index and bitcoin & rdquo; to analyse and continue to provide a simple example (also a supplement to the october 17 article):
Typically, the strength and weakness of the United States dollar affect changes in global liquidity, such as the strong dollar, which tends to flow back to the United States, and some risk classes of assets (including encrypted currencies) may face downward pressure. And vice versa。
as we all know, currently bitcoin has been given a concept of &ldquao; digital gold &rdquao; but it is still a more risky asset type than gold or other asset classes and may be more sensitive to changes in liquidity。
Let's look at the picture and analyze it:
As shown in the figure above, a partial period of time (e.g. between September 2024 and January 2025) may have involved the dollar index in relation to bitcoin pricesJuly 15thThere have been some analyses) and it is clear to us that, in general, every round of the encrypted market, the big cattle market, with the dollar index, hovers over the relative bottom。
we continue to look closer to time, for example, since mid-2025, the dollar index has largely remained at a relatively low point (between 96 and ndash; 98) and, in contrast, bitcoin is in a relatively high range (10– $120,000) to cross-coding (with a light return)。
And if you want to predict the next short-term movement of bitcoin from this angle, it would be easier to conclude that:
- If the dollar index continues to weaken over the next few months, such as the current low of 96, then, theoretically, without the sudden impact of the black swan, bitcoin will have a wave of opportunities to rise, for example, to continue pushing up and rising to $130,000 to $114 million。
- If the dollar index rises strongly in the coming months, for example by returning to 100 above and remaining stable, then, theoretically, bitcoin may continue to fall back in reverse, although the best result for bitcoin during this period is a roll-on (because institutional funds in this round will remain at the bottom)。
- if the dollar index continues to rebound in the coming months, then, theoretically, the risk preference for money will continue to decline, and bitcoin will fall directly to near the cost of the institution, which is currently around $74,000 in micro-strategy, and here we are blindly guessing that it could fall to 7– around $80,000。
The three conclusions above are different, and what we're going to do is do as much as possible in the direction of superpremature, while doing PlanB (i.e., what are our coping strategies in the event of a failed operation or a black swan incident in the process)。
Now that you have a different conclusion, then you need to continue to analyse a new question: where is the dollar index going in the coming months
First, you need to know what the factors affecting the strength and weakness of the dollar are, that is, what macro-factors (variants) may drive the strength and weakness of the dollar。
One of the most important variables in our view is the Fed’s interest rate policy。
In addition to the current general expectations in the market that the fall in interest rates for this month (October) is almost rigid, as shown in the figure below, it is estimated that it will be further reduced this year。
So, what's good for the dollar
Simply, theoretically, if the Fed accelerates the rate of interest-rate decline, it will result in a narrow spread of the dollar, which in turn will reduce its attractiveness, so that in the short to medium term it will be a profit-free dollar。
That is to say, if the Fed’s interest-rate reduction plan falls according to market expectations while new interest-rate reductions continue to emerge at the beginning of next year (2026), then it is unlikely that the dollar index will continue to shock lows and fall below 96 by the end of the year or the first quarter of next year。
At this point in time, you'll have an approximate result for the three conclusions above: Bitcoin (including gold) before the end of the year or the first quarter of next year may have a boom。
Of course, it's just a relatively simple single chain dimension extrapolation。
strictly speaking, the fed’s interest rate reduction does not necessarily lead to an immediate weakening of the dollar, nor does the weakening of the dollar lead to an immediate increase in bitcoin, and there will be an advance expectation, perhaps in the fourth quarter of this year, of 2– three reductions have been (partially) reflected in recent price increases. besides, there's one thing we're doingArticles on August 8, August 27It has also been shared or mentioned that if the future Fed interest rate decline is based on the possibility of recession in the United States economy, then risk assets may not necessarily be profitable (especially for highly risky assets such as encrypted currencies)。
so, if you want to make your own results (specify) more supportive, then you can continue to build on the above lines. for example, you can go further and analyse the yield trends on us debt, us employment data, us government fiscal spending and deficits, and even monetary policy in countries like japan and europe, … interested partners can study one by one, and we will not repeat it。
In short, different people have different preferences and different analytical approaches, some prefer macro-level analysis, some prefer chain data analysis, others like information-based analysis, others like finding opportunities directly within K-line & Shellip; & Hellip; there is no good or bad difference in the approach or approach to analysis, the emphasis being that each of us should develop or develop a suitable approach or strategy to make the necessary DYOR, and then make the corresponding choices based on probability and taking into account its own risk preferences (kilotyping)。
At the end of the article, we will talk about time:
we often see &ldquo on the internet or in some bloggers' articles such as “ short term ” “ long term ” “ short and medium term ” medium and long term ” and so on, for example, we mention one &ldquo above; short and medium term ” so how long do we call short and medium term concrete time
Personally, because I'm more like a Position Trader, so my short term is usually 1– 3 months, medium term, 3– and 6 months, the mark is held for several years to be permanent。
But different people may have different definitions of this, such as a Day Trader's short term, which may mean a few minutes or hours, or a few days in the medium term, or longer than a week. And, for example, Swing Trader may see only a few days to weeks in the short term, the medium term is weeks to months, and more than half a year is long for them。
And for some institutions, Investor, what they call short term may be 1– two years, long term may be years or even more. Buffet has held shares in Apple Company since 10 years ago, which may be considered permanent for Buffet。
so, not that you saw a blogger saying that bitcoin was likely to rise in the short term, so you were “ listened to ” bought bitcoin, and then found it falling that afternoon or the next day, so you quickly sold the meat and went to the homepage of bo and called it garbage。
The more correct thing is: first of all, you need to think about what kind of traders you are. Secondly, when looking for and reading certain bloggers' articles, it is necessary to know what kind of traders the bloggers themselves are. In this way, your learning or communication may be more meaningful。
This is what we are talking about today, and the sources of pictures/data references involved in the text have been supplemented and backed up in the "External Notion Exchange" version, which is a personal perspective and analysis only for the purposes of learning and communication and does not constitute any investment proposal。