Is the market facing a significant rebound, mid-cycle or end-point
By Chloe, Challenger
JUST FOUR DAYS AFTER NOVEMBER, THE ENCRYPTION MARKET HAS EXPERIENCED A DRAMATIC REVERSAL, WITH BITCOIN FALLING BY ALMOST 13 PER CENT OVER THE PAST MONTH, FALLING FROM A PREVIOUS HIGH POINT TO AROUND $104 MILLION, WITH REPEATED PRICE SHOCKS. ETH TRANSACTION PRICES FELL BY ALMOST 20 PER CENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD. IS IT TRUE THAT IN THE FACE OF THIS ROUND, THE MOOD OF THE MARKET IS IN A STATE OF ANXIETY? THE BEAR IS GONE? IS THIS A REAL TIPPING BACK OR IS THE MARKET PERHAPS IN THE DARK BEFORE DAWN
ChainCatcher has collated the respective interpretations given by industry experts, analysts, traders and institutional investors from different angles, and how do many view this market echo
THE MARKET, THE OG, IS OVER
In its report to CoinDesk, Enflux states that liquidity is flowing from encrypted money to traditional finance led by AI and financial technology. Enflux stated that Wall Street was preparing for another round of growth, driven by liquidity and infrastructure investment, while encrypted money would continue to test the real bottom。
QCP Capital, on the other hand, considers that recent reversals have little to do with macro factors. By contrast, the “older” holders of Bitcoin are profiting from the long-term rise, selling large quantities of BTC to exchanges such as Kraken. Chain data show that some 405,000 BTC long-term holding supplies have changed over the past month, but prices remain above the $100,000 threshold. QCP states that “the market absorbs traditional supplies without breaking critical support”, and notes that the leverage rate remains low and the financial rates are even。
Jordi Visser, a well-known Wall Street market analyst, shares the same view, “The dilemma is real and, frankly, the current mood for encrypted money markets is very bad.” But Jordi Visser thinks that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a “silent IPO”。
He noted that price fixing in the current market was not a sign of failure, but a normal process for early holders to realize gains. Visser explains that “Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz revealed in a recent financial teleconference that the company sold $9 billion worth of bitcoin for a customer, which represents an orderly exit of the OGs.”
THIS PROCESS IS SIMILAR TO THE REGULAR EXPIRATION OF THE LOCK AFTER THE TRADITIONAL IPO, AND THE EARLY INVESTORS WERE NOT PANIC SALES, BUT THE ORDERLY DISTRIBUTION OF THEIR HOLDOUTS. “THEY WERE PATIENT AND WAITED FOR YEARS TO ARRIVE AT THIS MOMENT.” IN HIS VIEW, THE DECOUPLING OF BITCOIN FROM THE RELEVANCE OF RISK ASSETS WAS PRECISELY PROOF OF THAT, AND IF MACRO-DRIVEN WEAKNESS, BITCOIN SHOULD FALL WITH RISK ASSETS RATHER THAN BECOME DIVISIVE。
Bitcoin continues to follow the typical trend of halving prices
Robert Kiyosaki, author of The Poor Fathers, again warned of a crash, "A massive collapse begins, millions of people will be wiped out, and they will protect themselves. Silver, gold, bitcoin, Ether House will protect you." However, he issued about 30 similar crash warnings between November 2024 and October 2025. Cryptonews did a terrible job, but Robert did a bad job, and, in historical terms, the market tends to go the opposite way。
While Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEx, argued that market risk remained high, but the market appeared to be stronger than in previous cycles, she warned that, as markets were now more liquid than in previous cycles, the frequency of extreme crashes was lower, but systemic risks, such as major LP withdrawals, unexpected macro events or regulatory shocks, could still trigger considerable volatility。
According to Cais Manai, co-founder and product manager of TEN Protocol, the recovery of the Etherwood is still uncertain in macro-conditional changes, and if the Fed prefers pigeons and risks return, we may see ETH quickly recover $4,500, especially when the ETF is still healthy。
The judgement given by CEO SynFutures Rachel Lin is relatively optimistic, saying that the fall in October is perhaps building the foundations for the next round of cattle markets. She believed that such a reversal was often mid-point of the larger cycle. She anticipated that November might enter the “stabilization period + cautious optimism” phase, and it would be possible for Bitcoin to rise to $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 if it continued to follow the typical trend of halving。
Taking stock of traders' views: If the United States government stops, the dawn will come
@CatoKt4THE CENTRAL REASON FOR THE DECLINE WAS PERCEIVED AS THE “BLOOD DRAIN” ON THE MARKET AGAIN DURING THE LIQUIDITY CONTRACTION PERIOD, MAINLY BECAUSE THE TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT (TGA) WAS UNABLE TO RELEASE FUNDS TO THE MARKET NORMALLY DURING THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT'S SUSPENSION, WHEN THE POOL WAS UNABLE TO ENTER, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF MARKET LIQUIDITY。
AND THAT NIGHT, THE UNITED STATES TREASURY WAS AUCTIONED THREE MONTHS AND SIX MONTHS, WITH A TOTAL AUCTION OF $16.3 BILLION AND ACTUAL AUCTIONS OF $17,690 MILLION, LESS THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S SOMA ACCOUNT'S REINVESTMENT SCALE ($7.69 BILLION) MEANT THAT $16.3 BILLION WAS BEING DRAINED FROM THE FINANCIAL MARKETS TO BUY THE COUNTRY'S DEBT. IN NORMAL TIMES, THIS SIZE OF PUBLIC DEBT AUCTIONS HAS HAD A LIMITED IMPACT ON RISKY ASSETS, BUT DURING A SPECIAL PERIOD OF TIGHTENING LIQUIDITY, THE $163 BILLION WITHDRAWALS HAVE HAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MARKETS。
A statement was also made by the Fed Eagles, which led to a decrease in the probability of falling interest rates in December from 69.8 per cent to 67.5 per cent, thereby undermining market confidence in the decline。
@Trader_S18Citing the latest reports by Goldman Sachs and Citi, he said that the suspension of the Government would end in two weeks. According to Goldman Sachs, the suspension is nearing its end, and it is expected that an allocation agreement will most likely be reached around the second week of November. He suggested that the trading tempo of nearly two weeks could be as follows, that BTC would be looking at whether BTC was building a base between 107k-111k districts by 7 November, and that if BTC had broken and stabilized above 112k by 12 November, it would have been able to bounce back, and that in mid-November, if the government had opened the door, the BTC would have run 124-126k ahead。
IN RESPONSE TO THE SITUATION, HE BELIEVED THAT THE EFFECTS OF THE GOVERNMENT ' S STAGNATION WERE NO LESS THAN A HIDDEN INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES, SO THE OPPOSITE THOUGHT WAS THAT THE MARKET HAD FALLEN IN SUCH A BAD EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT. AN APPEAL TO USERS TO STAY ONE OR TWO MORE WEEKS UNTIL THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT OPENS ITS DOORS, AND ONCE THE TREASURY BEGINS TO CONSUME ITS HUGE TGA CASH BALANCE, UP TO $900 BILLION IN CASH WILL RE-ENTER THE BANKING SYSTEM, NO LESS THAN AN INVISIBLE QUANTITATIVE EASING, AND IT WILL BE A GOOD DAY。
@TXMCtradesIt was argued that when the market was shouting together, it proved not to be the top, because the real top usually appeared when no one expected it and all the currencies went crazy. This time, only a few large currencies went up, others were still low, representing the fact that the market was not hot enough and the cattle market might not be over。
@TraderNoahExpressing strong criticism and cautious optimism about the encryption industry as a whole, he argued that after several years of performance, the market could withstand these “unacceptable facts”, first, that current prices were not cheap, even if some currencies fell by 80 per cent, and that those assets that did not perform well deserved to do so, because they were intrinsically worthless; secondly, that more than 80 per cent of the industry was incompetent compared to the qualifications of other industries, and would certainly be automatically eliminated over time; and thirdly, that the Fund as a whole had performed badly, and he stressed that the encryption industry had historically not been taken seriously by the outside world because it was full of speculation and prematureness。
But Noah is optimistic about the future, because post-cow-market excesses (such as bubbles and low-quality projects) in 2021 are now finally beginning to be eradicated on a case-by-case basis, which, although painful in the short term and leading to the “death” of most market users, is a necessary process for industry to succeed and mature, and a painful change。
@CredibleCryptoIt is believed that the market will never reach the peak of $4 trillion. "From 2020 onwards, I said many times that I would see at least 10 trillion dollars in total market value by the end of the cycle, and until now I insist that I never sell anything at 4 trillion."
@AshcryptorealBy way of historical comparisons, he recalled that, in early November 2024, bitcoin fell sharply from 71k dollars to 66k dollars, and that it was generally believed that the market had failed, but that it had risen sharply in only 45 days by between 60 and 108k dollars; during the same period, from 4 November to 15 December, ETH had risen by 75 per cent, the total market value of other currencies had increased by 138 per cent, and many small coins had risen by 5 to 10 times in less than two months, indicating that the market would only need a short time to generate explosive parabola returns. Today, the same decline occurred in early November 2025, when he noted that “all data are positive, including the fall in interest rates in Fed December, the end of quantitative austerity (QT) on 1 December, the launch of quantitative easing (QE), the signing of US-China trade agreements, the peak of gold prices and the rise of US-American stocks”
Convinced that encryption prices were being manipulated and pushed down, he did not accept the idea that the encryption market would end in a context of global liquidity and other asset increases, and therefore chose to wait patiently and firmly, although the process was not easy, the investment encryption market was aware of the risks。
Finally, although the reasons for this recall have been interpreted differently, it has been argued that the funds have been rotated to traditional markets, that early holders have been rewarded, and that the liquidity crunch has been caused by the suspension of government. It is certain that the market is in a critical waiting period, including the re-opening of the United States Government and the policy shift towards the Fed, and that there is no denying that bitcoin fundamentals are stronger than ever before. According to historical data, the average return for the third quarter of bitcoin remains positive at 6.05 per cent. And in the last few years, November was one of the strongest in bitcoin, with an average increase of 42 per cent over the past 12 years。
Perhaps it is the transition period required for Bitco to graduate from the experimental phase to become a long-term monetary asset。