THE U.S. MARKET OPENS THE GATES:

I. CENTRAL ETF CENTRE

IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2025, THE MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES CAME TO A CONCENTRATION PERIOD OF ETF, A CASH-IN-THE-SHELF CURRENCY. FOLLOWING THE OPENING OF THE ETF GATES BY BITCOIN AND THE ETA, XRP, DOGE, LTC, HBAR AND OTHERS WENT ONLINE IN THE UNITED STATES, WHILE ETF, AN AVAX, LINK AND OTHERS, ENTERED THE RAPID APPROVAL PHASE. IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE LONG 10-YEAR REGULATORY GAME OF BITCOIN ETF, WHICH COMPLETED THE FULL FILING-TO-MARKET PROCESS IN JUST A FEW MONTHS, THE US REGULATORY ATTITUDE HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY, AND THE BOOM IN ETF IS NO LONGER AN ISOLATED EVENT, BUT A NATURAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE STRUCTURAL DEREGULATION OF ENCRYPTED REGULATION。

The key to this boom in the market has come mainly from two points, the revision of the General Listing Standard for Commodity Trust Shares approved by the SEC on 17 September 2025 and the “8(a) clause” triggered by the United States Government's suspension in November. The generic listing criteria set out a unified access system for encrypted assets ETF, which eliminates the need for assets that meet the requirements to be subjected to a lengthy SEC-by-SEC review. The system can be applied as long as the encrypted assets have a history of more than six months in futures markets under the supervision of the CFTC and have a monitoring and sharing mechanism, or if at least 40 per cent of the relevant openings in the market exist, thereby reducing the cycle of cross-exchange approval from 240 days to 60-75 days。

The next November trigger of the “8(a) clause” and the passivity of the SEC accelerated the process of getting ETF online. While the common standard was temporarily interrupted during the United States Government ' s suspension, the SEC issued a directive on 14 November that allowed the issuer, for the first time, to voluntarily remove the deferred amendment in the S-1 registration statement. According to section 8(a) of the Securities Act 1933, a declaration that does not contain this provision will take effect automatically after 20 days, unless the SEC voluntarily stops. This creates a de facto tacit access to the market. At this point, it was not possible to block each application for a limited period of time owing to the suspension of Government departments. The issuers such as Bitwise and Franklin Templeton then seized the window and completed their fast-track registration by removing the delay clause, promoting the concentration of ETF in mid-November, creating the current trend of the market's encrypted assets ETF。

ANALYSIS OF THE PERFORMANCE OF ETF, THE MAIN MOUNTAIN CURRENCY (OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2025)

Solana (SOL)

THE FIRST PRODUCTS OF SOL WERE LISTED ON 28 OCTOBER AND, DESPITE A CONTINUED DECLINE OF ABOUT 31 PER CENT IN SOL PRICES SINCE ITS LISTING, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND IN CAPITAL INFLOWS. AS AT 2 DECEMBER, THE CUMULATIVE NET INFLOW OF THE ENTIRE SOL ETF BLOCK AMOUNTED TO $618 MILLION, WITH TOTAL ASSETS AMOUNTING TO $915 MILLION REPRESENTING 1.15 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF SOL. ACHIEVING THIS SCALE IN LESS THAN TWO MONTHS ALSO REFLECTS, IN PART, THE WIDESPREAD MARKET ACCEPTANCE OF SOL AS A THIRD-LARGEST CHAIN。

The BSOL, launched by Bitwise, was the most prominent, attracting about $574 million in the product alone, making it the single largest inflow of funds into SOL ETF. The key to BSOL's ability to lead is its design of a pledge-procedure mechanism — all SOL holdings pledge directly, and the staking incentives received do not go to investors, but are automatically re-invested to increase the net value of the fund. This way of linking the return to the net value of the Fund provides an alternative to compliance, easy access and profitability for institutions/investors wishing to participate in the SOL ecology but not willing to manage their own private keys and nodes。

Ripple (XRP)

THE XRP ETF WENT ONLINE ON 13 NOVEMBER 2025, AND THE XRP PRICE FELL BY ABOUT 9 PER CENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD. LIKE SOL, XRP ETF SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND. AS AT 2 DECEMBER, THE CUMULATIVE NET INFLOW WAS $824 MILLION, WITH A TOTAL ASSET VALUE OF APPROXIMATELY $844 MILLION, OR 0.65 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF XRP. THE SIZE GAP AMONG MAJOR ISSUERS IN THE XRP ETF PRODUCT HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT, AND MANY INSTITUTIONS HAVE A RELATIVELY BALANCED MARKET SHARE。

Doge

DOGE ETF has experienced a complete collapse of the market, confirming the huge gap between the Meme currency and institutional access to finance. The product represented by Grayscale ' s GDG (listed on 24 November) was extremely poor, with a cumulative net inflow of only $2.68 million and asset management of less than $7 million, representing only 0.03 per cent of the total market value of Doge. To make matters worse, Bitwise’s similar products have even seen zero inflows, and low daily turnover (about $1.09 million) also suggests that traditional investors are still skeptical about such MEME assets as Doge, which lack basic support and are largely dependent on community sentiment。

Hedera (HBAR)

HBAR ETF, as representative of a small and medium market value project, has had a more successful penetration on its own scale. The ETF came online on 29 October and, despite a decline of about 28 per cent in HBAR prices over the past two months, it received a cumulative net inflow of $8.204 million. Moreover, HBAR ETF ' s asset management size amounted to 1.08 per cent of the total market value of HBAR. This penetration is much more effective than doge and LTC, which may also mean that the market has some confidence in medium-market-market assets such as HBAR, which have clear enterprise-level applications。

Litecoin (LTC)

LTC ETF HAS BECOME A CLASSIC CASE IN WHICH THE ABSENCE OF TRADITIONAL ASSETS FOR NEW NARRATIVES CAN BE DIFFICULT TO REJUVENATE TEMPORARILY, EVEN IF ACCESS TO ETF CHANNELS IS AVAILABLE. AFTER ITS LISTING ON 29 OCTOBER, THE PRICE PERFORMANCE DECLINED BY ABOUT 7.4 PER CENT, WITH A LOW LEVEL OF FINANCIAL ATTENTION, A CUMULATIVE NET INFLOW OF ONLY $7.47 MILLION AND, ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS, AN AWKWARD SITUATION OF ZERO SINGLE-DAY INFLOWS. THE TURNOVER OF ONLY ABOUT $530,000 A DAY HIGHLIGHTS ITS INSUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OLD NARRATIVES SUCH AS DIGITAL SILVER, ON WHICH LTC CURRENTLY RELIES, ARE NO LONGER ATTRACTIVE IN TODAY ' S MARKETS。

ChainLink

The greyscale GLINK ETF officially went online on 3 December, and on the first day it reached nearly $40.9 million, with total assets now valued at approximately $67.55 million, or 0.67 per cent of the total market value of Link. From the results of the first day of trading, GLINK had a good start in terms of liquidity and the attractiveness of funds。

 

KEY ETF PARTICIPANTS AND SOURCES OF FUNDING

THE MARKET FOR ENCRYPTED ETFS HAS BECOME DISTINCTLY DIVIDED SINCE THE SALE OF THE YAMAYA CURRENCY ETFS: IN THE FACE OF DECLINING PRICES OF BITCOIN AND TAIFUNG, AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOW OF ETFS, SOL, XRP, HBAR, LINK AND OTHERS HAVE RECEIVED AN INFLUX OF FUNDS. IN OTHER WORDS, PART OF THE FUNDS WITHDRAWN FROM THE BTC, ETH ETF DID NOT LEAVE THE ENCRYPTED MARKET, BUT INSTEAD TURNED TO MORE GROWING ASSETS. IT ALSO SHOWS A TWO-TIER STRUCTURE FOR THE FUNDING OF THE YAMANAI DOLLAR ETF, WITH BOTH STOCK REDISTRIBUTION AND INCREMENTAL ENTRY。

Incremental funding came mainly from the traditional financial giants involved in the launch, including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, Canary, etc. The sources of funding for these institutions include pensions, insurance funds, wealth management accounts, 401K retirement schemes, management of clients and family offices, which were previously limited to compliance thresholds, and are now the first time that legal allocations have been made through ETF, creating a real new flow of funds. In other words, the bulking of the TEF has given traditional money a new opportunity to buy encrypted assets。

 

IV. THE WAY FORWARD: THE NEXT ROUND OF EXPANSION OF ETF

THE SUCCESS OF THE FIRST PRODUCTS, SUCH AS SOL, XRP, HBAR, HAS RESULTED IN A CLEAR PATH OF INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF ETF. THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE THE LARGER ECOLOGICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL LINKS, INCLUDING AVAX, ADA, DOT, BNB, TRX, SEI AND APT. ONCE APPROVED FOR LISTING, THESE ASSETS ARE EXPECTED TO ATTRACT FURTHER COMPLIANCE FUNDING, LEADING TO A NEW WAVE OF LIQUIDITY EXPANSION IN MULTI-CHAIN ECOSYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE ARE THREE MAIN TRENDS IN THE MARKET FOR ETF:

First, head concentration increases in parallel with product differentiation。
ASSETS WITH CLEAR FUNDAMENTALS AND LONG-TERM NARRATIVES WILL RECEIVE A SUSTAINED FUNDING PREFERENCE, AND THE LACK OF ECO-DRIVEN PROJECTS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE PERFORMANCE EVEN IF THEY ARE LISTED. AT THE SAME TIME, COMPETITION FOR ETF PRODUCTS WILL INCREASINGLY REVOLVE AROUND TARIFFS, PLEDGE GAINS AND BRAND CAPACITY, AND LEADING DISTRIBUTORS WILL ABSORB MOST OF THE MONEY。

Second, the product form will move from single tracking to strategicization and integration。
Indices, multi-asset baskets and active management categories will emerge to meet the professional needs of the agency in terms of risk dispersion, benefit enhancement and long-term configuration。

THIRD, ETF WILL BE A KEY FORCE IN RESHAPING THE FINANCIAL STRUCTURE OF THE ENCRYPTED MARKET。
THE ASSETS INCORPORATED INTO ETF WILL RECEIVE A “COMPLIANCE PREMIUM” AND A STABLE INFLOW OF FUNDS, WHILE THE CURRENCIES THAT DO NOT ENTER THE COMPLIANCE FRAMEWORK WILL FACE CONTINUED LOSS OF LIQUIDITY AND ATTENTION, AND THE MARKET HIERARCHY WILL BE FURTHER STRENGTHENED。

IN OTHER WORDS, THE FOCUS OF COMPETITION FOR THE YAMASHITA ETF IS SHIFTING FROM “MARKETABILITY” TO “HOW TO ATTRACT FUNDS AFTER LISTING”. WITH AVAX, ADA, DOT, BNB, TRX, ETC. COMING TO THE END OF THE APPROVAL PROCESS, THE SECOND EXPANSION CYCLE OF THE YAMAYA COIN ETF HAS BEGUN QUIETLY. IN 2026, IT WILL BE A KEY NODE FOR THE FULL INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF LISTINGS, BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF THE DEPTH OF RESHAPING THE LOGIC OF FINANCIAL PRICING AND THE PATTERN OF ECOLOGICAL COMPETITION。

Risk tips:

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