Read CoinShares 2026 report: goodbye to speculative narratives, embrace practical years

: Deep tide TechFlow

At the end of the year, the annual review and outlook reports of each agency were produced。

In keeping with the principle of not looking too long, we have also tried to quickly sum up and distil the reports。

The report is from CoinShare, a European leading digital asset management firm founded in 2014, based in London, United Kingdom, and Paris, France, managing assets of over $6 billion。

This is 77 pages long2026 Outlook: The Year of Practical WinnersThe Year Unity WinsIt covers the core issues of macroeconomic fundamentals, mainstreaming bitcoin, mixed financial rise, competition on smart contracting platforms, evolution of regulatory patterns, and provides an in-depth analysis of the subdivisions of stable currencies, monetized assets, forecast markets, mining transformations, and venture investments。

The following is a compilation and summary of the core elements of the report:

I. Core theme: The advent of the year of relevance

2025 marks a turning year for the digital asset industry, with a record high in bitcoin and a shift from speculative to practical value-driven industries。

the year 2026 is expected to be the "year of practical victory" and digital assets no longer attempt to replace traditional financial systems, but rather to strengthen and modernize existing ones。

The core view of the report is that 2025 marks a decisive shift in digital assets from speculative to practical value-driven, and that 2026 will be a critical year for the accelerated fall of this transformation。

Digital assets no longer seek to create parallel financial systems, but rather to strengthen and modernize existing traditional financial systems. The consolidation of public block chains, institutional mobility, regulatory market structures and real economic examples is moving beyond optimistic expectations。

Macroeconomic fundamentals and market outlook

Economic environment: soft landing on thin ice

Growth expectations: The economy may avoid recession in 2026, but growth is weak and fragile. Inflation continued to ease but was not decisive, and tariff disturbances and supply chain restructuring kept core inflation high since the early 1990s。
Federal Reserve Policy: A prudent reduction in interest rates is expected and the target interest rate is likely to drop to the middle of 3 per cent, but the process is slow. The Federal Reserve's memory of the surge in inflation in 2022 is fresh, and it is reluctant to move quickly。

Three scenarios:
- Optimistic scenario: soft landing + productivity surprise, bitcoin could be over $150,000
- Baseline scenario: Slow expansion, bitcoin trading area, $110,000-140,000
- Bear CityScenario: recession or stagnating, bitcoin could fall to $70-100,000

Slow erosion of the dollar reserve position

The United States dollar ' s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 70 per cent in 2000 to the current 50 per cent midpoint. The central banks of emerging markets are diversifying their configurations, increasing their holdings of assets such as renminbi and gold. This creates structural benefits for the storage of bitcoin as a non-sovereign value。

III. The mainstreaming process of bitcoin in the United States

The United States achieved several key breakthroughs in 2025, including:

PRESENT ETF APPROVED AND ROLLED OUT
TOP ETF OPTIONS MARKET FORMATION
Retirement plan restrictions lifted
Application of fair value accounting rules for enterprises
The United States Government classified bitcoin as a strategic reserve

Institutional adoption still early

Despite the removal of structural barriers, the actual use is still limited to traditional financial processes and intermediaries. Financial management channels, retirement plan providers, corporate compliance teams, etc. are still being adapted。

Projected 2026

The private sector is expected to make key progress: four major issuers open bitcoin ETF configurations, at least one major 401(k) provider allows bitcoin configurations, at least two standard 500 companies hold bitcoin and at least two major custodian banks provide direct hosting services。

IV. MINEERS AND BUSINESS RISKS

The size of corporate currency has surged

In 2024-2025, the holdings of listed companies in bitcoin increased from 266,000 to 104.48 million, with the total value increased from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion. Strategy (MSTR) accounted for 61 per cent and the top 10 companies controlled 84 per cent。

Potential sales risk

Strategy faces two main risks:

Unable to fund ongoing debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flows close to $680 million)
Refinancing risk (most recently bonds maturing September 2028)

If mNAV was close to 1x or could not be refinanced at zero interest rates, it could be forced to sell bitcoin, triggering a vicious circle。

Fall in options markets and volatility

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE IBIT OPTIONS MARKET HAS REDUCED THE RATE OF BITCOIN VOLATILITY, A SIGN OF MATURITY. HOWEVER, A DECLINE IN VOLATILITY COULD WEAKEN REVERSIBLE DEMAND AND AFFECT THE PURCHASING POWER OF ENTERPRISES. IN THE SPRING OF 2025, THERE WAS A TURNING POINT OF DECLINING VOLATILITY。

V. Fragmentation of regulatory patterns

EU: MiCA clarity

The EU has the most complete worldwide legal framework for encrypted assets, covering issuance, hosting, trading and stabilization currency. However, coordination restrictions were revealed in 2025, with some national regulators potentially challenging cross-border permits。

United States: innovation and fragmentation

WHILE THE UNITED STATES IS RE-ENERGIZED BY ITS DEEPEST CAPITAL MARKETS AND MATURE WIND-TO-ECOSYSTEMS, REGULATION IS STILL SCATTERED ACROSS A NUMBER OF INSTITUTIONS, INCLUDING SEC, CFTC AND THE FED. THE STABILIZATION CURRENCY LEGISLATION (GENIUS ACT) HAS BEEN PASSED, BUT ITS IMPLEMENTATION IS STILL IN PROGRESS。

Asia: towards prudential regulation

HONG KONG, JAPAN, ETC. PROMOTE BASEL III ENCRYPTION CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY REQUIREMENTS, AND SINGAPORE MAINTAINS A RISK-BASED LICENSING SYSTEM. A MORE COHERENT REGULATORY GROUP IS EMERGING IN ASIA, WITH CONVERGENCE AROUND RISK BASES AND BANK ALIGNMENT STANDARDS。

The rise of mixed finance

Infrastructure and settlements

Stable currency: The market size is over $300 billion, with the largest share of the table and the fastest growth of Solana. The GENIUS Act requires compliance issuers to hold United States Treasury reserves and create new demand for national debt。
To the central exchangeMonthly transactions exceeded $600 billion and Solana processed $40 billion a day。

CURRENCYIZATION OF REAL WORLD ASSETS (RWA)

The total value of monetized assets increased from $15 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $35 billion. Private credit and United States Treasury debt have grown fastest, with gold coins exceeding $1.3 billion. The assets of the BuIDL Fund in BlackRock expanded significantly, and Chase Morgan launched JPMD on Base。

Income generation chain application

An increasing number of agreements generate hundreds of millions of dollars of annual income and are distributed to token holders. Hyperliquid used 99 per cent of its income to repurchase tokens daily, and Uniswap and Lido introduced similar mechanisms. This marks a shift in tokens from purely speculative assets to class equity assets。

VII. Leveraging the stabilization currency and its adoption by enterprises

Market concentration

Tether (USDT) accounts for 60 per cent of the stable currency market, while Circle (USDC) accounts for 25 per cent. New entrants, such as PayPal's PYUSD, face the challenge of cyber-impacting the dual oligopolistic pattern。

Businesses adopt expectations by 2026

Payment processorVisa, Mastercard, Stripe, etc. have the structural advantage of moving to stable currency settlement without changing the front-end experience。
BankJPM Coin of Morgan Chase has demonstrated its potential, and Siemens has reported savings of up to 50 per cent in foreign exchange and reduced settlement time from days to seconds。
Electrician platform: Shopify has accepted the USDC settlement and the Asian and Latin American markets are piloting stable currency suppliers。

Income impact

Stabilizer issuers are at risk of falling interest rates: if the Fed interest rate falls to 3 per cent, an additional $88.7 billion in stabilization currency will be required to sustain current interest income。

VIII. Analysis of exchange competition patterns using the Porter Five-Power model

Existing competitors: Stronger and increased competition and reduced the rate to a low-digit base。
New entrants' threatTRADITIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS MORGAN STANLEY E*TRADE AND CSIC ARE READY TO ENTER, BUT RELY ON PARTNERS IN THE SHORT TERM。
Vendor bargaining capacity: Stabilizer issuers (e.g., Circle) enhance control through Arc main network. The USDC revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle is critical。
Client bargaining powerInstitutional clients account for more than 80 per cent of Coinbase transactions and have strong bargaining power. Retail users are price-sensitive。
Alternative threat: Hyperliquid et al. go to the Centralized Exchange, Polymucket et al., and CME encryption derivatives constitute competition。

Industry integration is expected to accelerate in 2026, with exchanges and large banks acquiring customers, licences and infrastructure through mergers and acquisitions。

IX. COMPETITIVENESS FOR A SCIENTIFIC CONTRACT POSITION

Etherwood: From sandbox to institutional infrastructure

It was expanded through the Rollup Centre Road Map, which increased the volume of Layer-2 throughput from 200 TPS a year ago to 4800 TPS. The certifying officer is promoting a higher base level Gas limitation. The U.S. spot attracts about $13 billion in inflows with ETF。

In terms of institutional monetization, BlackRock ' s BuIDL Fund and Morgan Chase ' s JPMD demonstrated the potential of the Taifung as an institutional platform。

Solana: High performance paradigm

Solana emerged from a single-sided, highly optimized implementation environment, accounting for about 7 per cent of DeFi ' s total TVL. The stable currency supply exceeded $12 billion (up from $1.8 billion in January 2024), the RWA project expanded, and the BuIDL in BlackRock increased from $25 million in September to $250 million。

Technical upgrades include Firedancer client, Double Zero certifier communication network, etc. The spot ETF launched on 28 October has attracted a net inflow of $382 million。

Other high-performance chains

The new generation of Sayer-1, Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, Hyperliquid, and others, competed through structural differences. Hyperliquid concentrates on derivative transactions, accounting for more than one third of total sector chain income. However, the market is heavily fragmented, and EVM compatibility is a competitive advantage。

X. MINING TRANSFORMATION HPC (HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING CENTRE)

In 2025, expansion

Listed miners calculated their strength growth of 110 ETH/s, mainly from Bitdeer, HIVE Digital and Iris Energy。

HPC TRANSFORMATION

MINERS ANNOUNCED CONTRACTS WORTH $65 BILLION FOR HPC, AND THE SHARE OF MINING REVENUES FROM BITCOIN IS EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 85 PER CENT TO LESS THAN 20 PER CENT BY THE END OF 2026. HPC OPERATES WITH A PROFIT MARGIN OF 80-90 PER CENT。

Future mining patterns

IT IS EXPECTED THAT FUTURE MINING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE FOLLOWING MODELS: ASIC MANUFACTURERS, MODULAR MINING, INTERMITTENT MINING (WHICH COEXISTS WITH HPC) AND SOVEREIGN MINING. IN THE LONG TERM, MINING MAY RETURN TO SMALL-SCALE AND DECENTRALIZED OPERATIONS。

XI. Venture investment trends

Recovery in 2025

Cryptography financing amounted to $18.8 billion, more than the entire year of 2024 ($16.5 billion). Driven mainly by large transactions: Polymarket received $2 billion in strategic investments (ICE), Tripe's Tempo received $500 million and Kalshi received $300 million。

Four major trends in 2026

RWA TOKENIZATION: SPAC for Securitize, 50 million for Agora, Round A, etc. show institutional interest。
AI COMBINED WITH ENCRYPTION: ACCELERATING APPLICATION OF AI AGENTS, NATURAL LANGUAGE TRADE INTERFACES, ETC。
Retail investment platforms: Echo (buyed by Coinbase for $375 million) and Legion and others have emerged from the Centralized Angel Investment Platform。
Bitcoin infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network related projects received attention。

Predicting the rise of markets

Polymarket traded over $800 million per week during the United States election in 2024, and post-election activity remained strong. The accuracy of its projections is verified: about 60 per cent of probability events occur, and about 77-82 per cent of probability events occur。

In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion to Polymarket, marking the recognition of mainstream financial institutions. Trade volumes are expected to exceed $2 billion per week in 2026。

XIII. Key findings

Growing up faster: Digital assets are moving from speculative to practical value and cash flow, and tokens are increasingly like equity assets。
Mixed financial riseThe integration of public block chains with traditional financial systems is no longer theoretical, but is evident through strong growth in stable currencies, monetized assets and application on the chain。
RegulationClarityRaise: US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, Asian prudential regulatory framework provides the basis for institutional adoption。
Institution adoption: While structural barriers have been removed, actual adoption will take several years and 2026 will be a year of incremental progress for the private sector。
Reshaping competition patterns: EVM compatibility is a key advantage when it is dominated but faces high performance chain challenges such as Solana。
Risks and opportunities side by side: The risk of being sold out is associated with high levels of corporate currency holding, but emerging areas such as institutional monetization, stable currency adoption and forecasting markets offer significant growth potential。

Overall, 2026 will be a critical year for digital assets to move from marginal to mainstream, from speculation to practical and from debris to integration。