Is it a secret currency or a bitcoin shadow
ORIGINAL BY AJC
Original language: Luffy, Foresight News
Of all the mainstream encrypted monetary assets, the ETA is the most controversial. The status of Bitcoin as the mainstream encrypted currency has been widely recognized, while the positioning of the Taicha is still pending. For some, the ETA is the only non-sovereign currency asset with credibility other than bitcoin; for others, the ETA is essentially a business, facing intense competition not only for the continued decline in revenue collection and the increasing tightening of profitability, but also for a number of more rapid and less costly public chains。
THIS DISPUTE SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR. IN MARCH, THE COMPLETELY DILUTED VALUATION OF THE RYRP WAS SHORT-LIVED OVER THE TAIFUNG (IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL THE CURRENCY IS IN CIRCULATION, WHILE THE RYRP IS ONLY ABOUT 60 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL SUPPLY)。
ON 16 MARCH, THE TOTAL DILUTION OF THE TAIFENG WAS ESTIMATED AT $22,765 MILLION, WHILE THE CORRESPONDING VALUATION OF THE RMB WAS $23,923.3 MILLION. THIS RESULT WAS ALMOST UNFORESEEABLE A YEAR AGO. SUBSEQUENTLY, ON 8 APRIL 2025, THE EXCHANGE RATE OF ETH/BTC FELL TO BELOW 0.02, THE LOWEST RECORDED SINCE FEBRUARY 2020. IN OTHER WORDS, ALL THE INCREASES IN THE PREVIOUS ROUND OF CATTLE MARKETS IN RELATION TO BITCOIN HAVE BEEN REPEATED. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MOOD OF THE MARKET FOR THE ETHERA FELL TO ICE POINTS FOR YEARS。
To make matters worse, the price decline is only the tip of the iceberg. The share of the ETA in the public chain fees market continues to shrink with the rise of the ecology of competitors. In 2024, Solana was revived; in 2025, Hyperliquid defected. Together, they will reduce the market share of the fare to 17 per cent, ranking fourth in the public chain - a fall from the cliff compared to the top of the list a year ago. While fees cannot represent everything, they are a clear signal of the flow of economic activity. Today, ETA is facing one of the most severe patterns of competition in its development history。
However, historical experience has shown that major reversals in the encrypted currency market often begin at the most pessimistic moments of market sentiment. Most of the pronounced decline of the Taifah, when it was declared a “failure asset” by the outside world, had in fact been absorbed by market prices。
In May 2025, signs of over-observed markets began to emerge. During this period, there was a strong rebound in the exchange rate of TTCs and in dollar prices. The exchange rate of the Taifung to bitcoin climbed from a low point of 0.017 in April to 0.042 in August, an increase of 139 per cent; the dollar price of the Taifeng rose sharply from $1646 to $4793, an increase of 191 per cent. The increase peaked on August 24th, reaching a record high of $4946 in Taifeng prices. Following this revaluation of value, it is clear that the overall movement of the ETA has returned to the upward route. The change of leadership of the EIP Foundation, as well as the emergence of a group of treasury companies focused on EIP, have injected confidence in the market。
BEFORE THE CURRENT ROUND ROSE, THE SITUATION OF THE TAIFENG AND BITCOIN WAS SO DIVERSE THAT THEY WERE WELL REPRESENTED IN THE ETF MARKET. IN JULY 2024, ETF CAME ON THE MARKET, BUT INFLOWS WERE VERY LOW. IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE LISTING, NET INFLOWS WERE ONLY $24.1 BILLION, IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE RECORD PERFORMANCE OF BITCOIN ETF。
HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG RECOVERY OF THE ETHER HOUSE, THE MARKET'S CONCERNS ABOUT ITS ETF INFLOWS HAVE BEEN DISPELLED. THROUGHOUT THE YEAR, NET INFLOWS TO ETF, WHICH IS AVAILABLE AT THE ETF, AMOUNTED TO $9.72 BILLION, COMPARED TO $21.78 BILLION IN BITCOIN. CONSIDERING THAT THE MARKET VALUE OF BITCOIN IS CLOSE TO FIVE TIMES THAT OF THE TAIFENG, THE MAGNITUDE OF ETF INFLOWS IS ONLY 2.2 TIMES DIFFERENT, A GAP FAR BELOW MARKET EXPECTATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, WHEN ADJUSTED FOR MARKET-MARKET SIZE, THE MARKET DEMAND FOR ETFS ACTUALLY EXCEEDS THAT OF BITCOIN. THE RESULT WAS A COMPLETE REVERSAL OF THE ARGUMENT THAT THERE WAS A LACK OF REAL INTEREST IN THE ETHER HOUSE. MOREOVER, FOR A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF TIME, ETF FUNDS FLOW EVEN DIRECTLY CRUSHING BITCOIN. BETWEEN 26 MAY AND 25 AUGUST, ETF NET INFLOWS TO ETF AMOUNTED TO $10.12 BILLION, EXCEEDING $9.79 BILLION IN BITCOIN ETF FOR THE SAME PERIOD, WHICH WAS THE FIRST TIME THAT INSTITUTIONAL NEEDS WERE CLEARLY TILTED TOWARDS THE ETF。
IN TERMS OF THE PERFORMANCE OF ETF DISTRIBUTION AGENCIES, BELET CONTINUES TO LEAD THE MARKET. BY THE END OF 2025, THE EF HELD 3.7 MILLION UNDER THE BELED FLAG, ACCOUNTING FOR 60 PER CENT OF THE ETF MARKET. COMPARED TO THE 1.1 MILLION HOLDING STOCK AT THE END OF 2024, THE INCREASE WAS AS HIGH AS 241 PER CENT AND THE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT OF OTHER DISTRIBUTION AGENCIES. IN GENERAL, ETF, WHICH IS AVAILABLE AT THE END OF 2025, STOOD AT 6.2 MILLION, OR ABOUT 5 PER CENT OF ITS TOTAL SUPPLY OF COINS。
Behind the strong backlash of the ETA, the most critical driving force was the rise of the ETA Treasury. Such reserves create unprecedentedly stable and continuous demand for the Etherpo, and provide the asset with an immeasurable support for narrative speculation or speculative funds. If price movements at Taifeng mark a clear turning point, the continued growth of the Treasury Corporation is contributing to deep structural change at this turning point。
In 2025, the company accumulated 4.8 million units, or 4 per cent of its total supply, which had a significant impact on the prices of such units. Most notably, it's Tom Lee's Bitmine. In July 2025, this company, which was originally mining in Bitcoin, began to gradually convert its reserves and capital to the Taifeng. Between July and November, Bitmine acquired 3.63 million ethods in cumulatively, with 75 per cent of the holding stock taking the lead position in the market of the company。
Despite the strong rebound in the Ethershop, the increase eventually cooled down. As of November 30th, the value of the Taifeng has fallen from the high of August to $2991, even below the historical peak of $4878 for the last round of cattle. The situation in the Ethera has improved significantly compared to the April valley, but the current round of rebounds has not completely eliminated the structural concerns that initially caused the market to be empty. On the contrary, the controversy about positioning the Taifeng is returning to public view with a more intense posture。
ON THE ONE HAND, THE TAIFENG IS DISPLAYING FEATURES SIMILAR TO BITCOIN, WHICH ARE THE KEY TO MAKING IT A MONETARY ASSET. TODAY, ETF INFLOWS ARE NO LONGER WEAK, AND TAIFUNG TREASURY HAS BECOME A SOURCE OF ITS CONTINUING DEMAND. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK AT THE TAIFUNG AS DISTINCT FROM OTHER PUBLIC-CHAIN TOKENS AND INCORPORATE THEM INTO THE SAME MONETARY FRAMEWORK AS BITCOIN。
On the other hand, the core issues that have dragged the fall of the Etherak in the first half of this year remain unresolved. The core fundamentals of the ETA have not fully recovered: its market share in public-chain fees has been continuously squeezed by powerful rivals such as Solana, Hyperliquid; its bottom network has been active and remains well below the peak of the previous round of cattle markets; and despite a sharp rebound in prices, Bitcoin has easily crossed historical highs, while the ETA has remained at highs. Even in the most powerful months of the Etherfrog performance, there are still a large number of holders who view the current round increase as an opportunity to be off-the-shelf rather than a recognition of its long-term value。
THE CENTRAL ISSUE IN THIS CONTROVERSY IS NOT WHETHER THE TAIFENG IS WORTH IT, BUT HOW THE ETH ASSET IS BUILT UP FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TAIFENG NETWORK。
IN THE LAST ROUND OF CATTLE MARKETS, IT WAS WIDELY FELT THAT THE VALUE OF ETH WOULD BENEFIT DIRECTLY FROM THE SUCCESS OF THE TAIFU NETWORK. THIS IS THE CORE LOGIC OF ULTRASOUND CURRENCY THEORY: THE PRACTICALITY OF THE TAIFENG NETWORK WILL GENERATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEMAND FOR DESTRUCTION OF TOKENS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CREATION OF CLEAR AND INSTITUTIONALIZED VALUES FOR THE TAIFENG ASSETS。
Today, we are almost certain that this logic will no longer be valid. Revenue from the fare of the Taifeng has fallen sharply, and recovery is hopeless; at the same time, the two core areas of growth of the Taifeng network – real world assets (RWAs) and the institutional market – are using the United States dollar as the central clearing currency, not the Taifeng。
The future value of the ITA will depend on how indirectly it benefits from the development of the ITA network. But this indirect value accumulates with great uncertainty. It is premised on the fact that, as the systemic importance of the Taifeng network increases, more and more users and capital are willing to view the Taifeng as a secure currency and value storage tool。
Unlike the accumulation of direct, institutional value, this indirect path has no certainty. It depends entirely on social preferences and collective consensus in the market. Of course, this is not a flaw in itself; but it means that the growth of the value of the Taifung will no longer be necessarily causally linked to the economic activities of the Taifung network。
All of this will be brought back to the core of the contradiction with the dispute over the Taifeng: It may be true that the ETA is gradually accumulating a currency premium, but the premium has always lagged behind the bitcoin. The market will again be seen as a "leveraging" of the currency attributes of bitcoin, not as a separate monetary asset. Throughout 2025, the 90-day scroll-related coefficient of the Ether and Bitcoin remained in the range of 0.7 to 0.9, and the rolling beta coefficient rose to a peak of one-eighth. This means that price volatility in the Taifeng far exceeds that of bitcoin, but at the same time remains dependent on the movement of bitcoin。
This is a fine but crucial distinction. The monetary attributes of the Taifung today are rooted in the fact that the currency narrative of Bitcoin is still recognized by the market. As long as the market firmly believes in the non-sovereign value of Bitcoin, some marginal market participants are willing to extend this trust to the Etherwood. Thus, if the movement of bitcoin continues to grow in 2026, the Etherak will be able to recover more land lost。
At present, ETA Treasury is still in its early stages of development, and its increase in the funding of ETA is mainly due to general stock distribution. However, if a new round of cattle markets were to take place in encrypted currency markets, such institutions might explore more dollar financing strategies, such as issuing convertible bonds and preferred shares, drawing on the model of Strategy ' s expansion of Bitcoin holdouts。
For example, such as BitMine, which is financed by issuing low-interest convertible bonds and high-yield priority shares, directs the funds raised to increase the holdings of the workshops, while pledging them to obtain sustainable returns. Under reasonable assumptions, the pledge proceeds offset interest on bonds and preferential dividends. This model allows reserves to grow continuously with financial leverage when market conditions are favourable. Assuming that the Bitcoin market opened in 2026, this "second-growth curve" of Taifeng Treasury will further strengthen the high-bitar properties of the Taifeng versus Bitcoin。
In the final analysis, the current market pricing of the currency premium in the Taifung is still premised on the movement of bitcoin. The ETA is not yet an autonomous monetary asset supported by an independent macro fundamental, but a sub-beneficiary of the Bitcoin Monetary Consensus, and this beneficiary group is gradually expanding. The recent strong rebound of the ETA reflects the willingness of some market participants to view it as a kind of bitcoin rather than a common public chain currency. But even at a relatively strong stage, market confidence in the Ethera remains inextricably linked to the continuation of the Bitcoin narrative。
In short, the monetization of the Taifeng is far from over, but far from over. Under the current market structure, together with the high-level Betta properties of the Taifung versus Bitcoin, the price in the Kitco is expected to rise significantly as long as the currency narrative of the Bitcoin continues to materialize; and the structural demand for financial resources from the Taifung Treasury and enterprises will provide a real boost. Ultimately, however, in the foreseeable future, the monetization process of the Taifung will remain dependent on Bitcoin. It has never been achieved unless it achieves a low-relevance and low-berta coefficient with bitcoin over a longer period of time. Otherwise, the premium space in the Taifeng will remain in the light of bitcoin。
