BIT RESEARCH: BITCOIN APPROACHING CRITICAL SUPPORT, APRIL OR DIRECTIONAL DECISION PERIOD

The encryption market is in an important transition phase. Bitcoin has recently experienced a small rebound after months of retreat and has re-tested key supporting areas that were previously compromised. Overall, however, the market rehabilitation base remains precarious and the trend dimension remains fragile. The continuing accumulation of macro-pressures and the weakening of liquidity while key policy events are approaching are changing the logic of market pricing. In April, while there were seasonal bias expectations in the market, historical performance was clearly divided, and the movement was more likely to be driven by a combination of liquidity, silo structure and macro-catalyst, rather than simple cycle repetition。

Support for repeated validation: trend vulnerability is not reduced

Bitcoin has tested key support areas for the third time since October 2025, when it entered the lower stage. Historically, similar structures have tended to take the form of a rapid back-to-back search, followed by the formation of milestones and attempts to build new ones, but the overall trend has not really been reversed. The current return of the market to a similar position suggests that the bottom-up support is still being tested over time and trend vulnerability has not improved significantly。

At the rhythm level, such low-level sequencing usually does not immediately complete orientation confirmation, but requires a shock before moving to the next stage. At present, the $65,000- $66,000 zone is a critical watershed, and if it fails, the market may again enter the accelerated downward phase, with the lower space or further direction to the lower zone。

Mobility and macro dominance: the rhythm is ahead of direction

April has traditionally been seen as a relatively biased month, but historical data indicate that this pattern is not stable. In particular, when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strength state, the movement tends to be phased. In this round, bitcoin enters the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before the previous rise, but the short-term rhythm remains cautious。

MORE CRITICALLY, THE PREVAILING MARKET HAS SHIFTED FROM A SINGLE NARRATIVE TO A LIQUIDITY AND MACRO VARIABLES. RISING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN OIL PRICES HAVE REINFORCED THE MARKET ' S JUDGEMENT THAT CENTRAL BANKS MAINTAIN A HAWK STANCE, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SUPPORTING THE DOLLAR, WHICH HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN UNDER PRESSURE TO COMPARE TTS. IN ADDITION, THE SLOWER GROWTH OF THE STABLE CURRENCY AND THE SENSITIVITY OF ETF FLOWS TO POLICY SIGNALS ALSO REFLECT THE FACT THAT LIQUIDITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP A SUSTAINED UPWARD MOBILITY。

IN TERMS OF TIME STRUCTURE, THE INTERNAL TEMPO IN APRIL IS EQUALLY CRITICAL: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH, LIQUIDITY WAS THINNER AND VOLATILITY INCREASED; MID-MONTH MACRODATA AND POLICY WERE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED INTENSIVELY; AND AT THE END OF THE MONTH, IT WAS ONLY WITH THE FALL OF THE FOMC CONFERENCE THAT THE MARKET COULD BE ABLE TO MOVE GRADUALLY. THIS MEANS THAT RHYTHM CONTROL WILL BECOME A MORE CENTRAL TRADE VARIABLE THAN MERE JUDGEMENT。

Overall, Bitcoin is still in a relatively fragile phase and short-term downward pressure has not yet been fully released. Under the baseline scenario, the market in the first half of April or the continuation of weak operations could be further accelerated if key supporting areas fail. However, in terms of the cyclical location, the weakness of the current round may be close to the bottom of the line. The market environment is expected to improve at a marginal level as tax breaks recede and policy expectations stabilize. Even in the case of a rebound, the kinetic energy is more likely to gradually appear in mid-month or later. For investors, it is not appropriate to rely on simple seasonal patterns at this stage, but rather to focus on changes in liquidity, macro variables and warehouse structure, waiting for clearer signs of repair to occur, while controlling risk。

Part of the above is from BIT on Target,Contact usGet the full BIT on Target report。

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