Galaxy In-depth Study: Is Bitcoin Effective Four-Year Cycle
Author:Alex Thorn
Other Organiser
In the 17-year development history of bitcoin, prices have been running at long-term fluctuations. Every four years or so, it climbs to the height of fanaticism, goes through the bottom of a painful fall and re-establishes its recovery。
This tempo has historically been anchored in a four-yearly halving, which would directly halve the increase in conventional supply. While the impact of successive halvings is declining and the market is full of "super-cyclical" forecasts, empirical data show once again that the four-year cycle pattern remains intact。
The present report addresses these fluctuations, as well as a pattern that emerges from the modern history of Bitcoin: the magnitude of each fluctuations is more modest than the previous one。
The peak in October 2025 was the calmest peak in the history of Bitcoin, and the decline since then was exceptionally mild. Since the heights are so restrained, should we expect the end of the cycle to be disproportionately shallow? If so, where's the bottom about
The present report assumes that the bottom of the current retreat has not yet arrived and provides data to support this assumption. At the same time, the data suggest that a more peaceful top in October 2025 could lead to a higher end of the cycle。
Historical analogies show that the base scenario for the current evacuation is in the range of $40,000 to $46,000, roughly for the current period to the fourth quarter of 2026. (Basicular circumstances are for illustrative purposes only. There may be substantive differences in the actual results. I'm not sure
The key is that the present report relies entirely on market data, chain data and time-cycle analysis. At the bottom of our projected cycle, we do not use or rely on an assessment of the likelihood, timing or impact of external events (such as regulation, market or geopolitical developments)。
Is the “four-year cycle” of Bitcoin still valid
Each of the Bitcoin cycles has gone from the last low point, through the halving, to the top, to the next low point. The following four cycles are included:
The bottom of the current cycle has not yet been formed. Based on the reporting date of 9 June 2026, both the withdrawals and the time elapsed are "to date"。
Please note the two patterns on which this report is based: first, the drop in each cycle from peak to bottom (from 85 per cent to 84 per cent and then to 77 per cent); and second, the bottom of each peak formed in history, which is about 12 to 13 months. Only eight months have passed since the current cycle was the closest。
BY INDEXATION, THE TOP OF OCTOBER 2025 SHOWED EXCEPTIONAL RESTRAINT RELATIVE TO THE TOP OF PREVIOUS CYCLES. THAT IS WHY THE AVERAGE PRICE (I.E., THE PRICE ACHIEVED, OR THE "COST BENCHMARK") PAID FOR THE LEVERAGE IN HAND BY THE MARKET IS UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHEST POINT IN HISTORY, REACHING 43.7 PER CENT OF THE PREVIOUS PEAK (ATH)。
In contrast, this proportion was usually only one third or even lower in the past cycle。
This is a vital data point: if there is a sale on the same scale as the end of the past bear market, this time it will be stable at a much higher dollar price. The timing, amplitude and chain indicators of the comparative cycle, and the current retreat may touch the bottom between:
The above price levels and the analysis in the report point to our view that the bottom of the cycle is not yet clear. Very few of the indicators at the bottom of the historical cycle have been triggered; in terms of time dimension, the current decline is still shorter than the historical retreat; and the cost benchmark itself decreases once a real panic has occurred。
Our core argument is that, empirically, the four-year cycle is still valid, except that its amplitude has contracted. The more calm top raised the floor but did not eliminate it。
How do you use data precision to identify the top and bottom of the cycle
It is almost impossible and, at least, extremely difficult to catch with precision when the top or bottom is forming; but everything is always clear afterward. So our approach is to list those conditions that have appeared at the top and at the bottom, and see how many are appearing at the same time today。
In order to establish a system of indicators to assess past peaks, we examined five types of evidence: valuation (as opposed to the purchase cost of the holder, is the current price high or low?), return of profit (as the holder sells in a strong position or surrenders in a vulnerable situation? (b) Miners (are the participants in the production of bitcoin full or under pressure?), trends (what is the price deviation from the long-term average?), and emotions (growing or fear?)。
Applying this five-dimensional perspective to both ends of the current cycle gives a clear picture: bitcoin fluctuations are shrinking. Each top is less fanatical than the previous one, and the ensuing collapse is becoming more shallow。
If the amplitude is real and is established at both ends, it can provide valuable information for the low-intensity of the expected cycle of the current retreat. From this we can estimate a zone where bitcoin may be at the bottom of the current retreat。
This analysis requires that we first identify indicators and establish benchmarks for identifying the top and bottom of the cycle. We use the same scoring method for both ends: to compare the levels achieved at each top and bottom of the past。
Top of the cycle
The top is real, but it is also the calmest in history. At the high point of October, only two of the 11 classic early warning signals reached very low frontal peak levels and were barely touched。
THE CLEAREST VALUATION INDICATOR, I.E. THE RATIO OF MARKET VALUE TO MARKET VALUE ACHIEVED (MVRV, MEASURED BY HOW HIGH THE PRICE IS RELATIVE TO THE AVERAGE PRICE PAID BY THE HOLDER), PEAKED AT ONLY 2.29, COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS THREE TOP MVRVS BETWEEN 2.93 AND 5.91。
For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the entire "greed" indicator cluster has recorded the lowest readings in the cycle, while the Pi cycle tops (a time signal that had contained the last three top predictions within a few days) have not been activated at all。
However, at the point of time, it is called the textbook level: the top of the top, day 1,062 after the previous low, coincides with the peaks of 2017 and 2021。
THE TURNING POINT IS THAT REAL FANATICISM EMERGED ABOUT 18 MONTHS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, THAT IS, AROUND THE TIME THE UNITED STATES PUSHED THE BITCOIN ETF, AND THEN PRICES CONTINUED TO RISE EVEN AFTER THE ENTHUSIASM SUBSIDED. IN RETROSPECT, THIS IS MORE LIKE AN INSTITUTIONAL BUY-IN THAN A BOGEY-IN THAT TRIGGERS A TOP BLOW-OUT。
The chart below provides a complete table of the top indicators for the current cycle (which is anchored at the height of October 2025)。
OF THE 11 LEVEL SIGNALS, TWO WERE CONFIRMED, TWO WERE ONLY PARTIALLY CONFIRMED (AT LEAST 85 PER CENT OF THE THRESHOLD) AND SEVEN WERE NOT ACTIVATED. THE TWO IDENTIFIED (RSI AND SOPR) BARELY CROSSED THEIR WEAKEST THRESHOLD SET IN 2021 AND REACHED PEAKS IN 2023 AND 2024, RESPECTIVELY, RATHER THAN THE HIGH PRICE POINT IN OCTOBER 2025。
The key is that, despite the timely arrival of the cycle clock, the signal at the top of the Pi cycle is still not on. Because time is a calendar fact rather than a measure of top fanaticism, the two indicators are treated separately)。
"Signatures at the top" are at the top of the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles; the threshold is the least zealous of three times (the peak of 2021), the most easily crossed top threshold. The "cycle peak" is the most extreme reading for each indicator in the current cycle and the month in which it occurs. Reserve risk and Pi cycle ratios are measured internally。
Bottom of the extrapolation cycle
During this retreat, only 4 of the 13 bottom-up signals were touched, of which 3 were also weak indicators: fear, trend indicators that touched the bottom zone, and, for the first time, a 200-week moving average line。
The fourth signal reversed in early June and was the first warning from the miners: the Hash Ribbons zone had a restorative intersection. That is to say, the 30-day average, which, after a period of surrender, rises back above the 60-day average, a signal that has tended to presage the bottom。
The strongest signal at each of the real bottoms (price drops the cost benchmark, the holder as a whole falls into loss, continued cutting off the scene, deep panic dishes) has not yet appeared. The current drop of 51 per cent is still far more moderate than the drop of -77 per cent to -85 per cent at the end of the cycles and is even less modest than the drop of -53 per cent at mid-2021。
But the rhythm has changed. At the same point in the cycle (approximately eight months after the peak, or 242 days), the recent downturn has pushed the current decline slightly below the level of the same period of the cycle from 2013 to 2015 (at that time it was decompression rebounding, with a drop of -48 per cent)。
So it's no longer the shallowest retreat path on the map. It was the shallowest in most of this retreat. The 2017-2018, 2021-2022 cycles were much deeper at this stage (both close to -68 per cent). Based on the periodic clock, the low point window at Bear City will not open until the end of 2026。
Each curve tracks the drop of a cycle starting at the top and aligns with day 0 as the starting point. By around 242 days (over the dotted line), the current cycle (Orange, -51 per cent) had slightly broken down the levels of the 2013 - 2015 cycle (-48 per cent), making it no longer the shallowest cycle (which it had been for most of the time)。
The other two previous cycles were close to -68 per cent at this stage. The current levels for all cycles are much higher than current prices (green belts are the bottom zone of the past bear market)。
The chart below is a complete bottom-line scorecard of the currently withdrawn indicators, all of which have been used previously foreshadowing the end of the cycle。
Of the 13 target indicators, 4 have been reached, 2 are approaching, and 7 remain untouched。
To illustrate the indicative meaning of this set of bottom indicators, the table below shows when they were triggered at the end of the previous cycle, compared to today。
To line these 13 same signals up with the last three cycles, the pulse is clear: at the lower end of every bear market, the 13 indicators end up in the bottom zone, with the only difference between timing, early light and lag。
Today, only four were touched, and only one of them (the Hashi belt) was triggered recently. (A striking difference is that this Hashi belt seems to have appeared before the bottom, rather than lagging behind the bottom, as in the past. This may be due to the external impact of the transition of bitcoin miners to artificial intelligence, which has not occurred in the past cycle. I'm not sure
The number in the cells of the previous cycle indicates the number of days in the 180-day window in which the extreme value of each indicator that is closest to the bottom leads (-) or lags (+) at the lower price of the cycle. Hashi belt means restoration cross; 12 months after cycle clock top。
Each indicator has been triggered at the bottom of the past three, and the signal point is whether they are up or down. The low point of the cycle does not appear to have arrived, so the current column shows only whether each check box has been ticked since the October 2025 price point。
It's getting lower and higher
Before drawing any conclusions, one fact that underlies the rest of the report is set out: Bitcoin fluctuated on both ends。
THE HEAT AT THE TOP IS COOLING PER CYCLE (5.91, 4.72, 2.93, 2.29), AND AT THE BOTTOM EVERY SUBSEQUENT CYCLE IS RISING, FROM 0.56 IN 2015 TO 0.69 IN 2018 AND 0.75 IN 2022。
In other words, the distance between the most overvalued and undervalued points of each cycle is shrinking. The price at the time of the crash was the same story: the drop was in turn - 85 per cent, -84 per cent, -77 per cent, which is currently -51 per cent。
EACH TOP (RED) AND SUBSEQUENT BOTTOM (BLUE) PRICE-TO-COST BENCHMARK (MVRV) CONVERGES FROM TWO DIRECTIONS TO "FAIR VALUE" (1.0). THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT CYCLE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNATTRACTIVE (A HOLLOW DIAMOND IS THE DEEPEST READING TO DATE). THIS IS A DESCRIPTION OF THE CYCLE PATTERN AND DOES NOT GUARANTEE WHERE THE CYCLE WILL END。
The top cooling and bottom lifting are descriptions of the three completed cycles, not natural laws. It does not in itself prove that the next low point will be light。
But it allows us to ask a precise question and give an exact answer: If a bottom is the same as the bottom of the past, to what extent is the decline in the dollar determined by the height of fanaticism
Raise the price threshold
MVRV IS JUST A COST-BASED BASIS FOR TODAY'S PRICES DIVIDED BY THE CHAIN. IN TURN, THE COST BASIS IS THE MVRV AT THE TOP OF THE HISTORICAL PEAK. SO THE LOWER THE TOP MVRV, THE CLOSER THE COST BASE IS TO THE PEAK。
SINCE OCTOBER WAS THE MOST PEACEFUL TIME IN HISTORY (MVRV 2.29), THE COST BENCHMARK EVENTUALLY FELL TO 43.7 PER CENT OF THE HIGHEST POINT IN HISTORY (COMPARED TO 34.2, 21.2 AND 16.9 PER CENT AT THE TOP OF 2021, 2017 AND 2013, RESPECTIVELY). THE CALM TOP DOES NOT PUSH DOWN THE LIMIT; WHILE OTHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED, IT BRINGS THE COST BENCHMARK CLOSER TO THE PEAK, THUS RAISING THE FLOOR。
The cost benchmark represents a new and high proportion of the history of each cycle, each climbing to 44 per cent by 2025, precisely because it is more moderate at the top of each cycle. The notes on each column show how much of the dollar would fall in a typical traditional base form。
NOW THAT THE BOTTOM PERFORMANCE IS FIXED (ASSUMING THAT EACH CYCLE IS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MVRV), IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE DOLLAR DROP IN EACH CYCLE IS DECREASING, SIMPLY BECAUSE THE STARTING POINT FOR THE COST BENCHMARK IS HIGHER. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE ABSENCE OF ANY PROJECTIONS IN THE TABLE BELOW:
EACH CELL REPRESENTS A DROP IN THE RATIO OF THE COST BASE TO THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE, IF THE CYCLE REACHES THE BOTTOM OF THE MVRV IN THAT COLUMN。
THE PERFORMANCE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SAME LINE IS EXACTLY THE SAME, WITH ONLY THE DEGREE OF CALM AT THE TOP. A TYPICAL TRADITIONAL BOTTOM (MVRV 0.70), WHICH IN 2013 MEANT A DROP OF -88 PER CENT, BUT ONLY -69 PER CENT IN THE CURRENT CYCLE. THIS IS SIMPLY A SEPARATION OF THE TOP EFFECTS, WHICH IS ARITHMETICAL, NOT A ASSERTION THAT THE TOP OF CALM NECESSARILY BRINGS A HIGHER BOTTOM。
Where's the bottom of this one
The bottom is not based on an integer percentage, but rather on two key anchor points: the cost base and the 200-week moving average line (200w MA). The latter have served as long-term price support throughout the life cycle of Bitcoin。
In terms of both anchors, the last three bear market lows have fallen significantly below both: The average is about -33 per cent below the cost benchmark (up to -44 per cent in 2015), and below the four-year average is about -14 per cent。
Two points deserve attention。
First, the shortfall in the cost benchmark is being narrowed in each cycle (-44 per cent, -31 per cent, -25 per cent), as is the contraction at the top。
Second, today's prices have not even touched that area. Even if it had fallen by 51 per cent, bitcoin prices were 14 per cent above the cost benchmark (which never fell in the current cycle), only 1.5 per cent below the four-year average. According to the ruler at the bottom, the bottom of this time has not yet arrived。
In the past, each bear market low point was below the cost benchmark (blue) and the four-year mean (purch). The past lows were well below both; today prices are still above the cost benchmark and just below the 200-week average, while the gap in breaking the cost benchmark is closing in each cycle。
The conclusions of the anchor and arithmetic are consistent. Translating past gaps to today's anchor points, they point to the same region: the cost base is broken - 25 to -44 per cent, roughly equivalent to US$ 30,000 to US$ 40,000; the four-year average is between US$ 41,000 and US$ 62,000。
This suggests that the real bottom is likely to be lower than current prices, but much higher than in the past when it fell by 75 to 85 per cent。
Turning algorithms into prices, based on the current cost benchmark of $53,000, is not a single number, but a set of situations; the one that we see first。
OUR UNDERLYING SCENARIO, ASSUMING ONLY A CONTINUATION OF THE CYCLE-BY-CYCLE TREND TOWARDS FAIR VALUE (MVRVS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 0.86), FALLS TO APPROXIMATELY $40,000 TO $46,000. IN THE EVENT OF A MORE SEVERE, DEEP-DRIVE WASH IN 2018 OR 2022 (MVRVS BETWEEN 0.56 AND 0.70), PRICES WOULD FALL BETWEEN $30,000 AND $37,000。
IN THE CASE OF A SHALLOWER RESULT, THE STEADY PURCHASER ABSORBED A DROP (0.95-1.01) NEAR THE COST BASE, AT A PRICE OF APPROXIMATELY $51,000 TO $54,000, AND ONLY TOUCHED THE FOUR-YEAR AVERAGE ($62 MILLION) THAT WAS GOING UP, WHICH WAS JUST BELOW -51 PER CENT. (FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY. THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL RESULTS. I'M NOT SURE
Several scenarios at price. The cost benchmark and the four-year average that continues to move (the base of the historical evidence will follow the two lines) is much higher than the old 75-85% drop zone (grey, discarded)。
The colour belt converts the past base form to today's United States dollar price. These prices are based on the premise that "the bottom has been formed" and are not predicting that the bottom is coming. For illustrative purposes only, the actual results may differ substantially。
The real point of view is that all of this undermines the old law of experience. The drop of -77 per cent to -85 per cent (accurate ruler of the previous cycle) would set the bottom of the current period at between US$ 19,000 and US$ 29,000。
But the law does double-check the impact of calm: the extreme drop of 75 to 85 per cent in the past was based on a peak of extreme fanaticism; the peak of the cycle was mild and close to the cost benchmark. The prediction of the bottom can naturally be seriously distorted by placing deep drop ratios against extreme fanaticism at this mild peak。
In this whole picture, the cost benchmark is like the tide that's flowing down there, and it's the clearest indication that the floor is moving。
Over the past year, the cost benchmark has risen from approximately $47,000 to a peak of close to $56,000 by the end of 2025 (20 per cent). This climb is the deepest cause of the current bottom well above the old law。
However, as part of the 2024-2025 chips were lost or lost, the realized prices then fell by about 5 per cent to about $53,000。
By the end of 2026, the price achieved (i.e., the cost benchmark) will be a key variable in determining the bottom: a calm and orderly decline will stabilize it and stabilize the underlying situation at $45,000; and a true panic will push it further through and slow down overall projections。
Why is it moving
Cost benchmarks are anti-physical. It looks like a bottom line, but it's made out of the last deal. In the real sale, the leverage swap will lower the average, so the floor will not hold the price, but will follow it down。
THIS IS THE GREATEST LIMITATION TO THE ARGUMENT THAT THE FLOOR IS RAISED. THE BUFFER SPACE IS THIN: TODAY ' S PRICES ARE ONLY ABOUT 14 PER CENT ABOVE THE COST BENCHMARK (MVRV IS 1.14), AND THE CYCLE HAS NEVER BROKEN IT。
A typical bottom pattern could fall from approximately $40,000 to about $36,000, $32,000 or $28,000, returning to normal historical compartments, if the selling round lowers the cost benchmark by 10, 20 or 30 per cent。
Keep the base pattern unchanged and allow the cost benchmark to decline in sales. The implied floor would slide back from approximately $40,000 to the vicinity of $28,000 and re-enter the normal historical zone (Amber colour). The calm top has raised the floor, and the real panic will swallow up some of the increases。
THE STABLE, PRICE-SENSITIVE BUYOUT BROUGHT ABOUT BY SPOT ETF AND THE FIRM'S TREASURY, WHICH WAS NOT AVAILABLE IN THE PAST CYCLE, TENDED TO RAISE A HIGHER THRESHOLD. BUT IT CAN BUFFER THE DECLINE, BUT IT CAN ALSO MAGNIFY IT。
THE NATURE OF THE SOURCE OF SUCH FUNDS IS DETERMINED BY THE FACT THAT THE DIGITAL ASSETS TREASURY (DAT) AND THE CORPORATE TREASURY ARE OFTEN EXPENSIVE TO BUY, RATHER THAN TAKE IN FLYING KNIVES; AND THAT THE ETF FUNDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NET-FLOWING IN 2026. ONCE THERE IS A REAL DEEP SALE, THE FUND MAY BE FORCED TO SELL INSTEAD OF ABSORBING THE SALE。
In the cycle of 2022, the largest forced sales of dishwashers in the history of encryption fell - 77 per cent. So the "lower leverage" doesn't count. (These are subsidiary arguments and are not the core pillars of the arguments. I'm not sure
Higher floors, and the risk of erosion in panic, are two sides of the same mechanism: the cost benchmark for the current cycle is higher, but it declines when a real market surrenders. And that's why we look more at spatial than single values。
Data predicts a retreat direction
Our analysis clearly points to how deep it will fall and how long it will take。
The more moderate top, bringing the cost benchmark to 43.7 per cent of the highest point in history, makes the fall in the United States dollar a more modest institutionally than any previous cycle for any established bottom pattern。
In our view, the empirical rule of "bitcoin has historically fallen by 75 to 85 per cent, so the current cycle will touch the bottom of $19,000 to $29,000" is outdated as a literally price threshold。
Even if there was a depth wash like in the past, there is now a much higher figure. Thus, even the tougher dishes we have set are higher than that region, and our basic situation falls in the midpoint of $40,000。
It is likely that the bottom is not yet available against indicators and time data from previous cycles. The 13 bottom indicators are only four, while it is only now about eight months to retreat and the historical pattern is 12 to 13 months to the end (and the cost benchmark itself will decline)。
There are several real deep dishwashing signals: price drops at the cost benchmark, overall loss for the holder, continuous cut-off, effective break of the four-year average, and deep fall at bear market level. If these signals begin to reverse at much higher prices than in the old zone, the amplitude contraction at both ends of the cycle is real。
On the other hand, if the full-scale surrender is on schedule, the calm top will simply delay the suffering and not alleviate it. In either case, the calculation of the cost basis shows that the starting line for this determination is much higher than assumed by the old four-year rule。
This is a descriptive study of how the top of a calm cycle shapes the arithmetical logic at the bottom of the cycle, not necessarily a projection of price trends or price targets. The price we set is a historical comparison of the current backsliding relative to today ' s cost benchmark (which itself will change)。
APPENDIX A: CHART LIBRARY
We have a large number of supporting charts by theme. The framework for the first set of set-up cycles; and the second set a complete bottom check list, one by one. In each indicator diagram, the shadow belt is the range reached at the low points of 2015, 2018 and 2022, with the orange mark the latest reading。
Periodical Graphics
Price with the top of its cycle. The complete price history of bitcoin at a logarithmic scale shows the top (red) of the last three cycles and the October 2025 height (Orange)。
Price with the bottom of its cycle. In the same history, the reference lows were marked: the bottom (red) of the bear market in 2015, 2018, 2022, and the fall of the new crown and retreat (grey) in mid-2021。
Periodic clock. How many days after each top comes after the last low point (circle) and the halving of the square. At the top of October 2025, it landed precisely in the historical window。
FRENZY COMES EARLY. THE CYCLE PEAKED AT THE BEGINNING OF 2024, BEFORE AND AFTER THE LAUNCH OF THE SPOT ETF; THE CHAIN THEN SUBSIDED WITH ENTHUSIASM AND PRICES RISING BY ABOUT 70 PER CENT UNTIL OCTOBER 2025。
The signal that never hit. Peaks (asterisks) in 2013, 2017 and 2021 were accurately projected at the top of the Pi cycle in a few days. In the current cycle, the trigger condition was never met (this was the first time at the top of any cycle)。
See bottom indicator resolution
MVRV. VALUE RELATIVE TO THE AVERAGE COST BASE OF THE HOLDER. IN THE PAST, IT WAS PUSHED TO THE BOTTOM WELL BELOW 1.0; SO FAR, THE LOW POINT IN THE CURRENT CYCLE HAS STOPPED AT 1.14。
NUPL. SHARE OF MARKET VALUE IN UNREALIZED PROFITS. THE BOTTOM OF THE PAST PUT IT BELOW ZERO (TOTAL LOSS); IT REMAINS POSITIVE TODAY。
MVRV Z-Score. Standardized version of MVRV. The past bottom recorded negative depth; it remained positive for the current cycle。
Mayer Multiple. Price divided by 200 antennas. It's down to the bottom zone, which is the bottom feature of all trend signals。
Price comparison four-year average. The 200-week average is the most enduring support for bitcoin. The bottom of the past has touched or broken it; for the first time in the current cycle, prices have fallen below it。
SOPR. THE AVERAGE PROFIT OR LOSS OF THE CHIPS TRANSFERRED ON THAT DAY. IN THE PAST, IT WAS PRESSED BELOW 1.0 FOR MONTHS IN A ROW; IN THE CURRENT CYCLE, IT WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY WIPED DOWN。
Net realized gains/losses. The amount of profits (+) or losses (-) that are locked on a daily basis is scaled to market size. The sharp increase in extreme losses at the bottom of the sign has not yet occurred。
Puell Multiple. Income pressure indicator for miners. The bottom readings for former miners ranged from 0.30 to 0.41; the low point of the current cycle (approximately 0.44) was close but not touched。
Hash Ribbons. Calculator kinetic energy. Lower than 1.0 meant that miners were surrendering; in 2026, they had fallen the threshold for a long time。
Fear and greed index. Our unique emotional indicators, 0 to 100, have fallen into fear in this fall, deeper than the previous average at the bottom. This is the only indicator that has been successfully triggered。
APPENDIX B: GLOSSARY
Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin has a rhythm of about four years, including years of climbing to record highs, falling to lows, and a long recovery. Each cycle usually revolves around halving。
Halve. Around every four years, the output of the new Bitcoin will be halved. This is a fixed feature of the agreement and has historically served as an anchor for each cycle。
THE HIGHEST POINT IN HISTORY (ATH). BITCOIN HAS THE HIGHEST COLLECTION PRICE EVER. THE HIGHEST HISTORICAL POINT IN THIS CYCLE WAS $124,824 ON 6 OCTOBER 2025。
Back off. Prices fell from peak to percentage. The retreat of 50 per cent meant that prices fell by half from the highest levels in history。
Cost basis, also known as realized price. Average price estimates for which the market pays bitcoin in hand. Technically, it is the sum of each bitcoin transferred at the price of the last chain divided by the amount of bitcoin. It is the most critical single anchor in this report, and we call it the cost benchmark for the network。
Market value. Total United States dollar value of all bitcoin at current prices (price x amount of bitcoin in circulation)。
Market value achieved. The total value of all bitcoin is calculated at the price at which each bitcoin last moved instead of the current price. The realized price is the realized market value divided by the amount of bitcoin。
MVRV RATIO. THE MARKET VALUE DIVIDED BY THE MARKET VALUE ACHIEVED IS ALSO EQUAL TO THE CURRENT PRICE DIVIDED BY THE COST BASE OF THE NETWORK. HIGHER THAN 1.0, AVERAGE BITCOIN WAS PROFITABLE; LOWER THAN 1.0, AVERAGE LOSS. IT IS THE CENTRAL THREAD THAT RUNS THROUGH THIS REPORT。
MVRV Z-Score. A standardized version of the difference between the market value and the realized market value has made it comparable to the extremely high and low points in the very different price age of Bitcoin。
NUPL (NET UNREALIZED GAIN/LOSS). UNREALIZED PROFITS AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL MARKET VALUE. THE GREED OF THE HIGH POSITIVE MARK AS IT APPROACHES THE TOP; BELOW ZERO (TOTAL BOOK LOSSES) IS OFTEN ACCOMPANIED BY DESPERATE SALES NEAR THE BOTTOM。
SOPR (OUTPUT PROFIT MARGIN). THE AVERAGE PROFIT OR LOSS OF THE CHIPS TRANSFERRED ON THAT DAY. MORE THAN 1.0, THE CHIPS ARE BEING SOLD FOR PROFIT; UNDER 1.0, THE HOLDER LEAVES THE MEAT (A TOUCH SIGNAL)。
Mayer Multiple. Price divided by 200 antennas. A simple indicator to measure price deviations from medium-term trends。
200 days/200 weeks to move the mean line. The average closing price for the last 200 days (medium-term trend) or 200 weeks (about four years, the most durable long-term support line in bitcoin)。
Puell Multiple. The United States dollar value of the new mining of bitcoin, in proportion to its annual average, is used to measure the (low) or (high) income pressure of miners. The indicator is named after David Puell, an ARK Invest analyst。
Reserve risk. Measuring long-term holders ' confidence in relative prices. It is presented in a proportional manner and is used only in relative terms in the present report。
Top of the Pi cycle. A time indicator that triggers when the 111 antenna goes up twice the 350 antenna. It accurately projected the top of 2013, 2017, 2021 in a few days; the cycle never triggered。
Hash Ribbons. Compare the average of 30 and 60 days. When the short-term average fell over the long-term average, the most costly miners started to shut down (surrender); the recovery history was always ahead of the bottom。
Fear and greed index. 0 to 100 emotional indicators based on chain, derivative and financial flow data. Low readings indicate extreme fear (near the bottom) and high readings indicate extreme greed (near the top)。
RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS INDEX). VIBRATION INDICATORS BETWEEN 0 AND 100; HIGH READINGS INDICATE THAT THE MARKET IS OVERPURCHASED, USUALLY NEAR THE TOP。
Periodic clock. The number of days passed from the low point at which the cycle begins, or from halving to the top or bottom. Bitcoin has arrived approximately 1060 days after the last low point on the top of the three previous occasions; at the bottom, it appears about 12 to 13 months after the top。
Reverse. This idea was popularized by George Soros in the 1987 Financial Purgatory, meaning that the criteria used as a measure would themselves be affected by price fluctuations. Here, the cost benchmark looks like a bottom line, but in a real sale, the leverage swap will bring it down. The floor is a moving target, not a fixed red line。
