SUNX INSTITUTE WEEKLY REPORT: LIQUIDISM UNDER GEOGRAPHY AND ENCRYPTION MARKET BREAKDOWN POINTS

I. Macro markets: bottom-up of pricing logic versus inflation

In the next 1-3 months, the core anchor of global financial markets will no longer be the node of the Fed’s interest rate decline, but the supply-side shock of geopolitical conflicts。

Geo-conflict and oil price upwards: inflation “grey rhino”

The conflict between the United States and Iraq and the continued fermentation of the situation in the Middle East have directly contributed to the rise in global crude oil prices. This rise in real inflation, driven by oil prices, is spreading relentlessly to the cost side of enterprises. The current market does not fully take into account the tail risks of extreme conflicts, such as ground force intervention. If this situation continues until the middle of the second quarter, the resilience of inflation will place significant constraints on the Federal Reserve ' s monetary policy, which will significantly reduce the already generous liquidity expectations. This has also led directly to significant upward pressure on the recent 10-year United States debt return and long-term mortgage rates。

“New normal” and deviations from the labour market

ON THE SURFACE, RECENT NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA (NFPS) REMAIN STRONG, BUT THIS MASKS STRUCTURAL WEAKNESS IN THE LABOUR MARKET. NEW JOBS ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY SUPPORTED BY THE HEALTH-CARE SECTOR (AGING-DRIVEN) AND BY IMMIGRANTS, WHILE EMPLOYMENT IN THE FINANCIAL AND GOVERNMENT SECTORS IS ACTUALLY SHRINKING. THE FED'S INTERNAL MODEL SHOWS THAT THE UNITED STATES LABOUR SUPPLY IS INCREASING AT A RATE NEARING ZERO. THIS DEPARTURE FROM ACTUAL DEMAND FOR JOBS MEANS THAT THE ECONOMIC SOFT LANDING IS NOT AS SOLID AS IT APPEARS。

3. Global asset revaluation under exchange rate fluctuations

The rapid depreciation of the yen and the sharp increase in the rate of return on Japanese debt are a microcosm of the renewed search for high-interest security assets by global capital. The rise in global capital avoidance, under the double squeeze between a strong dollar and high inflation expectations, is a direct explanation for the apparent weakness of traditional risk assets and encryption markets in the recent past。

II. Encryption market fundamentals: total market value warming against extreme panic

Against the backdrop of a tightening macro-financial landscape, the data within the encrypted market are characterized by extreme contradictions — rising market values, but declining funds and falling emotions。

1. DISTINCTION OF ETF FUNDS AND SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE

The global market value of encrypted currencies has reached $2.46 trillion this week, and the market value of bitcoin has risen to 59.2 per cent. On the one hand, United States spot bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day strong net inflow of $358 million, and on the first day Morgan Stanley introduced new bitcoin spot ETF (MSBT) received an inflow of $30.6 million; on the other hand, the market also suffered a single-day net outflow of up to $124.5 million from the profits of the FBTC, ARKB, and GTC. At present, the price of bitcoin stands at a high-level shock near $71,000 (approximately $71,600 - $71,800). The distribution of chips on the chain shows that $75,000 above is still accumulating a large amount of profit and encumbrance. In the current time when ETF macro-incremental funds are declining, it is extremely difficult to rely on stock games to break through high resistance and stand on $80,000。

2. Demobilization and extreme panic in the chain

The latest report on market sentiment indicators (the Panic and Greed Index) 15, as compared to 12 last week, is still mired in a rare “Extreme Fear” state. This is highly consistent with the sense of risk avoidance that was expected as a result of the recent collapse of the US-Iraq talks, which led to a large disk coming down to $71,500. The weakening of the data on the chain also confirms the fear that the DEX turnover in the major public chains has generally contracted, that chain traders have left to watch, and that the overall market remains in a vacuum of liquidity. Risk avoidance and wait-and-seeness have become the main rhythm of current funding。

Derivative warning: alerting to “false breakthrough” harvests

Although there are signs of slight improvement in the spot CVD (cumulative trade differential), the margin bias in the options market (Put Skew) continues to be high. This means that professional bodies are buying a large amount of downside options to hedge. For ordinary investors, a high degree of vigilance must be exercised with regard to the “up-to-up and off-the-shelf breakthrough” made by the main capital of the shock market — that is to say, a pull-up that triggers the loss of the head and then a quick rollback of the dishwashing technique。

Where's Smart Money? Racing and VC Layout

In stock game garbage time, knowing where top institutions and smart money go is key to finding the next round of Alpha returns。

1. RWA AND AI INFRASTRUCTURE: TOP VC PROTECTION PORT

Despite the panic, in the first-tier market, the institution still has real returns on the heavy money bets and the low-cost tracks。

●nbsp;RWA (REAL WORLD ASSET) CONTINUES TO BE HOT:& nbsp; The private credit infrastructure of the chain, Valinor, has just completed a $25 million seeder, and Midas, the asset monetization platform, has taken $50 million A. The advent of projects such as R2 Protocol points to the urgent need for markets to introduce risk-free gains from traditional finance (e.g., United States debt) into the chain and to find safety cushions for large stable currency funds。

●nbsp;Stable currency and payment of capital:& nbsp; The Better Money Company received $10 million from a16z to build a stable currency clearing house. In conjunction with this week's USDC's nearly 3 billion additional data, it can be seen that compliance funds are actively storing “ammunition”, waiting for entry。

2. Hot spots on the chain: predicting market and Meme launcher flows

In the absence of macro-level narratives, the chain of attention economy was stretched to the limit. The transformation of real events (sport, technology) into a forecast market for chain targets, such as OmenX, CADE Market, and the PumpCA, the “immediate up-and-low-threshold” Meme-currency launcher, are becoming the main position for capital upstream of the absorption chain to create short-term high-frequency games. But this is a highly volatile speculation park that is extremely testing the ability of participants to control the wind。

SUNX  under periodic shocks; trade strategy guidance

The recurrence of macro-environments often leads to the loss of principal by unsystematic “traders” in frequent pursuits and loss of capital. Until the situation becomes clear (the next 2-4 week game is expected to be extremely intense), SunX  the Institute recommends that high net value users switch their minds and pursue a robust “Saferich” path。

1. Derivative hedge risk, good use

In the face of the risks of false breakthroughs foreseen by the options market and the geopolitical breakout of the black swan, the risk of unilateral cash exposure is excessive. Recommended use of SUNX  by mature investorsFutures& nbsp; product set-up hedging position. in the vicinity of a $75,000 resistance position, the targeting of spot profits through reasonable contractual space is a professional defensive strategy in the shock market。

2. & nbsp;Print Grid and Extreme Fill

In a low-mobility environment, the slide point of the entry is amplified indefinitely. It's hard to see blind market prices in the moment of data release (e.g. key CPI data to be released this week). Investors should be placed ahead of schedule at critical support levels (e.g., $65,000), depending on SUNX  industry-led deep-diplomatic engines to achieve extremely low slide pointsFillI don't know. Grid trading is the preferred tool for obtaining excess gains within the current broad band shock zone。

3. & nbsp;Steady, Earn, through the bear

This week, USDC's massive increase suggests that alligator funds prefer stable currency to wait for the moment. This is also the best time for ordinary users to achieve “Safeway” wealth growth. Transfer of inactive USDT/USDC or inactive mainstream currencies to SUNX Earn  accounts not only avoid market disorder but also generate highly competitive annualized passive income. prior to the storm, holding a viable cash flow was the greatest initiative。

Policy expectations and official security early warning

The encryption market is about to get short-lined and catalytic next week — the United States Senate is considering a bill on regulatory clarity in relation to “Clarity”. If it goes smoothly, it is expected that the current panic will be broken for a short time。

Finally, SUNX  the Institute here solemnly warns: with the recovery of encrypted market flows and SUNX  with the expansion of the global influence of brands, there has been frequent confusion of names, UI-highly similar imitation or “shelter” platforms. These platforms induce users to transfer assets through false high-yield commitments。

Please be vigilant and do not click on airdrop links from unknown sources in the community, all transactions, finances and contractual operations, only SUNX  official App and official domain names. Protecting your capital base is the only law that survives in this high-risk, high-return industry。