BIT RESEARCH, | AMERICA’S NEW SPACE ECONOMY: FROM SCIENCE FICTION TO HARD CURRENCY

Key data: US$ 626 billion in size 2025 US$ EF + 153% annual return US$ 1.75 trillion for SpaceX target + 250% annual return for RKLB

I. Investment core: the five gold in the space economy Mines

Do not mix all flying companies. Before studying a unit, understanding the logic of the track is more important than selecting a unit:

Launch services (Launch Services) - “Space Express”

Business model: Put the payload in orbit at a sub-cost。

Risk level: High (risk of project failure, a failure may affect contracts for several years)。

Representative company: SpaceX (monopoly), Rocket Laboratory (RKLB)。

Satellite communications and broadband (SatCom) — “orbit operator”

Business model: Stable subscription, providing global broadband connectivity, excellent cash flow。

Risk level: Medium (front-period capital investment, but moat depth)。

Representing companies: SpaceX (Starlink), AST Space Movement (ASTS)。

Earth Observation - “Saas”

Business model: Daily imaging and sale of data for government, agriculture and defence。

Risk level: Low (high income expectations, very low marginal costs)。

REPRESENTATIVE COMPANY: PLANETARY LABORATORY (PL)。

Defence Security - “hard currency infrastructure”

BUSINESS MODEL: LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT CONTRACT TO PROVIDE MISSILE WARNING, GPS AND MILITARY SATELLITES。

Risk level: Very low (with strong risk avoidance properties, supported by national strategies)。

REPRESENTATIVE COMPANIES: LMT, NOC, LHX。

Space Foundation - “Future expedition”

Business model: Building forward-looking hardware such as Moon Landers, on-orbit services, etc。

Risk level: Very high (currently in the pure-money phase, depending on the government allocation schedule)。

REPRESENTATIVE COMPANY: INTUITIVE MACHINE (LUNR)。

II. Why is the space plate in the air

Space has shifted from the exclusive domain of government to that of commercial profits. A breakthrough reduces the cost of going into orbit95 per centI don't know。

Massive outbreak:The global space economy has reached $626 billion. McKinsey is projected to reach $1.8 trillion in 2035。

Core drivers: Reusable rocket -Falcon 9 had completed over 640 launches by April 2026, completely changing the economic model。

Satellite broadband needs:A global network of 3 billion people was lacking, and satellite constellations were the only large-scale coverage programme。

SpaceX IPO effect:THE APRIL 2026 IPO APPLICATION DIRECTED THE ATTENTION OF MAINSTREAM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS TO THIS BLOCK。

SpaceX IPO: What it is and why it matters

A CONFIDENTIAL APPLICATION WAS FILED ON 1 APRIL 2026, WITH THE GOAL OF COMPLETING ONE OF THE LARGEST IPOS IN THE HISTORY OF NASDAQ。

Financial performance: In 2025, the total battalion received about $15-16 billion and the EBITDA about $8 billion. Starlink, a global user of 10 million, has a profit margin of 63 per cent。

Valuation alerts: 1.75 TRILLION AGAINST FORWARD MARKETING (P/S) APPROXIMATELY87 timesI don't know. This premium reflects the market's strong appreciation for the integration of “starships” and xAI。

DXYZ-SPECIFIC WARNING:Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) has a long-term premium of about 50 per cent higher than NAV. Following the official listing of SpaceX, the scarcity of DXYZ disappeared and could be under considerable pressure to sell。

IV. In-depth analysis of priority listed companies

ROCKET LABORATORIES (RKLB):

The 2025 battalion received $602 million (+38 per cent) and the order reserve amounted to $1.85 billion (+73 per cent)。

Look at this: Naut rocketIt's the core of competition. Free cash flows, currently negative at $322 million, remain capital-input。

AST SPACE MOVEMENT (ASTS):

In 2026, the battalion guidelines were $150 million to $200 million, with AT& and giant partners such as T and Vodafone。

Look at this:Validation of regular mobile phone direct satellite technology。

PLANETARY LABORATORY (PL):

THE FY2026 BATTALION RECORDED A RECORD GAIN OF $307.7 MILLION, REPRESENTING 98 PER CENT OF RECURRENT INCOME。

Look at this:A typical software-based space company has a strong government contractual base。

INTUITIVE MACHINE (LUNR):

TRANSPORTATION WAS PROVIDED FOR THE NASA ARTEMIS PLAN, WITH AN ORDER RESERVE OF $943 MILLION。

Look at this:THE STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY IS EXTREMELY HIGH, MAINLY WITH THE NASA MISSION NODES。

V. CONFIGURE TOOLS: SPACE THEME ETF

UFO (Procure Space ETF):The highest purity. The annual return is +153 per cent. Management fee 0.94 per cent. SpaceX is expected to become its core when it is listed。

ARKX (ARK Space Exchange): ACTIVE MANAGEMENT. THE ANNUAL RETURN WAS +74.4 PER CENT. MORE EMPHASIS ON SPACE AND AI, BIG DATA。

ITA (iShares Aerospace & Defense):Conservative first choice. The volatility rate is significantly lower, mainly by conventional military and engineering giants such as Boeing and Loma。

VI. Investment risk and key catalysts 2026

Core risks

1. Valuation foam:RKLB and SpaceX all traded at very high profit multipliers and the benefits were fully factored into the price。

2. Dilution of shares:Most of the early companies were financed through the issuance of new shares, and existing shareholders ' interests faced dilution。

3. Prohibition: The ban on sales after SpaceX has been placed on the market (September-December 2026) may trigger additional market supplies。

2026 Key Catalyst

SpaceX S-1 enrolment book: For the first time, audited financial statements and satellite chain details will be made publicly available。

Neutron rocket development: Could RKLB really break SpaceX's monopoly in the medium and large payload market。

ASTS CAMP TAKES THE CLIMB:Validate the commercial closed-doors of mobile phone operations。

Summary:

1. THE RISK PREFERENCE FOR MORE CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS IS USUALLY UNDERSTOOD FIRST THROUGH A BROAD ETF OR LARGE MATURE DEFENCE FIRM, AND THEN THE STUDY OF INDIVIDUAL PURE SPACE COMPANIES IS CONSIDERED。

2. FOR INVESTORS WITH GREATER VOLATILITY AND A LONGER TIME DIMENSION, SUCH UNITS AS ROCKET LABORATORIES OR AST SPACE MOBILITY CAN BE STUDIED IN DEPTH, BUT IT NEEDS TO BE FULLY UNDERSTOOD THAT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR INCREASE IS GREATER RETREAT SPACE。

3. Focusing on speculative investors on plate infrastructure or early launch companies, essentially a long-term judgement as to which companies will continue to operate and grow after five to ten years, requires a framework of analysis that is completely different from that of mature enterprises that are profitable and have a sufficient cash flow。

4. INVESTORS EXPOSED TO TOOLS SUCH AS DXYZ SHOULD TAKE TIME TO UNDERSTAND THE STRUCTURE OF THE TOOLS STUDIED BEFORE DRAWING ANY CONCLUSIONS. THE GAP BETWEEN MARKET PRICES OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND THE VALUE OF THEIR UNDERLYING ASSETS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT IN SOME STRUCTURES。

Before looking at specific companies, it is clear what type of investor you belong to, which helps to ensure that you are looking at the right information and asking the right questions。

 

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