THE BOX Q3 GUIDE IS SHORT OF AN EXPECTED $1.2 BILLION, FALLING 13% BEHIND AND "COOLING"

Original by Ada, Deep tide TechFlow

ON JUNE 3RD, DURING EAST UNITED STATES TIME, CHASE RELEASED ITS PERFORMANCE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF THE 2026 FISCAL YEAR AS AT MAY 3RD, 2026. IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, THIS IS A RECORD QUARTERLY NEWSPAPER. THE RECOVERY OF $22.19 BILLION, 48 PER CENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD, WAS THE FIRM ' S HIGHEST SINGLE-SEASON INCREASE SINCE JANUARY 2017; THE ADJUSTED EPS $2.44 EXCEEDED THE AGREED EXPECTATION OF ANALYSTS BY $2.40. BUT THE MARKET WAS NOT CONCERNED WITH Q2, BUT WITH THE CHASE'S AI CHIP INCOME GUIDE FOR Q3, $16 BILLION, WHICH WAS MORE THAN 200 PER CENT OF THE INCREASE, BUT NEARLY 7 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN THE SELLER'S UNANIMOUS EXPECTATION OF $17.2 BILLION. THIS GAP, TOGETHER WITH THE SMALLER THAN EXPECTED SIZE OF THE COMPANY ' S SOFTWARE OPERATIONS, TRIGGERED A SHARP REACTION TO STOCK PRICES。

Q2 PERFORMANCE IS ALMOST PERFECT, AI SEMICONDUCTOR INCOME IS GROWING 13 CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS

Q2 AI SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES, AS OFFICIALLY DISCLOSED BY CHASE, AMOUNTED TO $10.8 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF 143 PER CENT OVER THE PREVIOUS COMPANY GUIDELINES OF $10.7 BILLION IN MARCH. IN A STATEMENT IN THE FINANCIAL PAPER, CEO CHEN FOOKYANG STATES THAT THE QUARTERLY GROWTH HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY "A COMBINATION OF CUSTOMIZED AI ACCELERATORS AND AI NETWORK DEMAND"。

In terms of business, business income from semiconductor solutions amounted to $15.09 billion, an increase of 79 per cent over the same period, or 68 per cent of the total, of which AI semiconductor income increased to 72 per cent, non-AI semiconductor income to $4.2 billion, an increase of 6 per cent over the same period, and order bookbooks exceeded $6 billion, representing a cyclical recovery. Infrastructure software operations (VMware) generated $7.778 billion, an increase of 9 per cent, consistent with the company ' s own guidance, but lower than the $7.32 billion analyst forecast of the StreetAccount survey, with a shortfall of approximately $140 million。

THE PROFIT SIDE PERFORMED EQUALLY STRONGLY. THE ADJUSTED EBITDA AMOUNTED TO $15.2 BILLION, REPRESENTING 69 PER CENT OF THE RECEIPTS AND UPDATING HISTORICAL RECORDS; FREE CASH FLOWS OF $10.26 BILLION, OR 46 PER CENT OF THE RECEIPTS; AND THE END-OF-SEASON CASH BALANCE OF $19.63 BILLION, REPRESENTING AN INCREASE OF $5.4 BILLION。

Q3 DIRECTS A HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, BUT AI SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUE IS "$1.2 BILLION SHORT."

CHASE Q3 DIRECTS TOTAL REVENUE OF $29.4 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF 84 PER CENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE ANALYSER'S AGREED EXPECTATION OF $28,54 BILLION; OF THIS, SEMICONDUCTOR INCOME DIRECTION $20.5 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF 124 PER CENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD. HOWEVER, AI'S SEMICONDUCTOR INCOME GUIDELINE WAS $16 BILLION, 7 PER CENT LOWER THAN THE FIRM'S EXPECTATIONS OF $17.2 BILLION, AS COMPARED WITH THOSE OF VENDORS LIKE LSEG, AND THE GAP WAS GREATER THAN THOSE OF SOME MORE OPTIMISTIC BUYERS。

More crucially, Chen Fookyang failed to raise the 2026 fiscal year AI chip income guide at the conference. According to CNBC, he reiterated in a teleconference that "the company expects this momentum to continue into the 2027 fiscal year and to maintain the AI semiconductor's guidelines of over $100 billion." Bernstein Analyst Stacy Rasgon commented in this regard that it was the Q3 ' s AI Performance Guide that slowed down open equity prices。

TOTAL Q1 (8.4 BILLION), Q2(10.8 BILLION) REALIZED INCOME AND Q3 AND Q4 ARE EXPECTED TO FALL CLOSE TO $56 BILLION FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL YEAR ' S TOTAL SALES OF AI CHIPS, LEAVING A GAP OF APPROXIMATELY $1.6 BILLION COMPARED TO THE $57.6 BILLION ANTICIPATED BY ANALYSTS。

It's over 13%, and the options market is already very volatile

THE POST-COMPREHENSIVE STOCK PRICES REACTED SHARPLY. ON JUNE 3RD, 4 P.M., FOLLOWING THE RELEASE OF THE FINANCIAL PAPER, AVGO JUMPED ABOUT 5 PER CENT IN THE FIRST PLACE; THE DROP CONTINUED TO EXPAND AS THE DETAILS OF THE GUIDELINES AT THE TELECONFERENCE WERE REVEALED, WITH A SUDDEN DROP OF OVER 15 PER CENT AND A FINAL FALL OF 13,78 PER CENT. A SINGLE-DAY MARKET VALUE EVAPORATES OVER $27 BILLION, BASED ON A PRE-FISCAL CLOSING PRICE OF APPROXIMATELY $479。

It is worth noting that capital markets are already preparing for sharp fluctuations after financial disclosure. According to several media sources, the pre-publishing options market has already set a price of about 7.8 per cent for single-day fluctuations after the release of financial statements, significantly above historical averages. This price-fixing reflects the investor’s dilemma, with the value of the equity price before Chase’s entry into the fiscal season having rebounded from a low point in March by more than 60 per cent, rising almost 40 per cent from 2026 to the present, and the valuation (about 90 times the market rate) well above the average of about 69 times that of semiconductor counterparts。

It is precisely because of this valuation concern that the hidden threshold set by the market for the financials of Chase is "overall big expectations" and that any guidance below the "explosive watch" pattern could trigger the conclusion of gains。

AI INTERNET REVENUE WILL FALL FROM 40% TO 30%

FOR THE A STOCKLIGHT MODULE PANEL, A MESSAGE FROM CHEN FOOKYANG AT THE CONFERENCE ABOUT AI NETWORK OPERATIONS MAY BE MORE LETHAL THAN THE AI GENERAL GUIDANCE。

According to Yahoo Finance, citing phone calls, Chen Fookyang confirmed that the share of AI network operations in AI's semiconductor income is “close to 40 per cent”, but at the same time indicated that this proportion is expected to “normalize over time to close to 30 per cent, rather than remain close to 40 per cent”。

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT CHASE MANAGEMENT HAS GIVEN A CLEAR WAY BACK FOR AI NETWORK OPERATIONS. THE AI NETWORK (WHICH INCLUDES THE EXCHANGE OF CHIPS WITH THE ETHERNET, THE CONNECTION OF THE LIGHT-RECEIVING MODULE TO THE CHIP, ETC.) IS THE DOWNSTREAM NARRATIVE OF CHINA'S A-SHARE-LIGHT MODULE'S MESO-INTELLIGENT, NEW EUPHORIA, AND A CORE SOURCE OF INCOME FOR ZENGFU COMMUNICATIONS. THE THREE COMPANIES HAVE ALL EXPERIENCED A SHARP INCREASE IN STOCK PRICES THIS YEAR, WITH A COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF MORE THAN A MILLET, A DYNAMIC MARKET GAIN OF ABOUT 66 TIMES THAT OF THE MIDDLE, AND 139 TIMES THAT OF ZENGFU COMMUNICATIONS, WITH VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF CONTINUED HIGH GROWTH IN THE AI NETWORK。

THE LATEST STATEMENT BY CHEN FOOKYANG MEANS THAT EVEN THOUGH AI ' S COMPUTING NEEDS ARE STILL HIGH, THE INTERNET RATIO MAY BE AT THE TOP. IF THIS SIGNAL IS ACCEPTED BY THE BUYER, THE PREVIOUS VALUATION PREMIUM FOR THE HEAD OF THE UNIT LIGHT MODULE A WOULD FACE A DIRECT TEST。

Spill effect: Marvell back and down, Asian AI chain under pressure today

The guiding effects of the experience have begun to spill. Marvell's post-discretion stock prices and declines by about 9 per cent, narrow to about 6 per cent as of the time of the release, and Astera Labs and Credo Technology, which are part of the AI network/connection concept, are also holding back. It is worth mentioning that Marvell experienced a single-day surge of 32 per cent on June 2, when he called it "the next trillion-dollar company", and that on June 3, the positive share continued to rise by 3.73 per cent, but that after that wave of vomit meant that the previous day's "in Weeda premium" was under concentrated liquidity pressure。

FOR ASIAN MARKETS, THERE ARE TWO CENTRAL POINTS OF VIEW TODAY. FIRST, CAN THE A-SHARELIGHT HEAD "LEAVE TO LIGHT" GROUP DIGEST CHEN FUKYANG'S STATEMENT ON THE FALL IN THE SHARE OF THE NETWORK; SECOND, WHETHER HBM SUPPLIERS SUCH AS HAN SHARES SK HERCULES, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, ETC. HAVE BEEN SLOWED DOWN BY THE OVERALL COOLING OF AI NARRATIVES? THE EMOTIONAL RESPONSE OF THE PLATE COULD BE AMPLIFIED, CONSIDERING THAT ON JUNE 2ND, THE SINGLE DEAL WAS MORE THAN HALF OF THE A BLOCK'S TOTAL DAY-TO-DAY CONCENTRATION。

HOWEVER, THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS THEMSELVES DO NOT NEGATE THE LONG-TERM CLIMATE OF AI ' S ABILITY TO CALCULATE. CHEN FOOKYANG ONCE AGAIN DESCRIBED THE DEMAND FOR THE AI CHIP AS "UNSATISFACTORY" AT THE CONFERENCE AND REITERATED THAT THE 2027 FISCAL YEAR AI CHIP GENERATED MORE THAN $100 BILLION IN REVENUE. IN DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR, INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS THE SWISS BANK ENTERED THE LOGIC OF “LOW BUY-IN” AFTER A SIMILAR DROP IN FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS. WHETHER THIS ROUND IS A NARRATIVE POINT OR A ROUTINE PROFIT FROM A HIGH VALUATION CRITERION WILL HAVE TO BE JUDGED BY THE SUBSEQUENT LEAD COMPANY CALL AND THE MOVEMENT OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF SUPER-LARGE CLOUD MANUFACTURERS。