Tom Lee Dubai: Many people are ready to give up, why do I insist

AuthorZeniumTom Lee

CompileZenium Wu said the chain

 

On December 3rdI don't knowIn Dubai on the week of the 2025 Ant-zone block chain, Fundstrat was created by a group of people from different countriesBitmineTom Lee, Chairman of the Board, published a book entitledThe encryption supercycle is still stableThe speechThe system describes his long-standing multiple views of the encrypted market, the core of which includes: why 2025's main line is “didentization”, why bitcoin and taffle prices are considered to be at the bottom, the traditional four-year cycle is being broken, the Etherject will play an infrastructure role in the global financial system, and the national treasury of digital assetsDATI don't knowDigital Assembly Treasury will take a key place in the next round of encryption finance. He also explained Bitmine’s strategy, the business logic of the Taicong Treasury model, and predicting the next stage of financial innovation brought about by the combination of market and monetization。

IT IS A PERSONAL POINT OF VIEW OF THE GUEST AND DOES NOT REPRESENT A POINT OF VIEW BY WU. AUDIO TRANSFER IS DONE BY GPT AND THERE MAY BE AN ERROR. PLEASE LISTEN TO THE FULL PODCAST IN THE LITTLE UNIVERSE, YT, ETC。

Little universe:https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episodes/694141db4c65abaf345756

YouTube:https://youtu.be/7wATETVM3XU

Here is Tom Lee's speech:

The speech begins

Tom Lee:Hello. It is a pleasure to communicate with you at this moment. As you know, since October, the encryption market has been going through a difficult period, with pessimism rising. I know a lot of people who are ready to give up. So instead, I think it's a very appropriate time to discuss the encryption market and why I look at it so much。

So today's speech is entitled “The encryption supercycle is still strong”. Let me introduce you brieflyMineBackground. I'm currently in three positions: first, I'm the research manager for Fundstrat Global, which focuses on macro and encryption; second, I'm the chief investment officer for Fundstrat Capital, which manages three ETFs, including Granny Shots -- It's the fastest active stock in history of $3 billion; third, I'm the chairman of the board of directors of BitMine Immersion Technologies, which is currently the largest holding agency in the world. If you want to watch us on social media, Fundstrat's account is @fundstrat, Bitmine's account is @bitMNR。

in the next 25 minutes, i'll be going around several parts. first, why do we still look very much at the multi-encrypted market — the core is tokenization. secondly, why do i think the price of encrypted assets has reached its bottom, and why in the next eight weeks we may really break the traditional four-year cycle of bitcoin, this time i do not think the market will continue to follow the four-year cycle? thirdly, it is important that the eta is the foundation of the future financial system, as it will be at the centre of the monetization wave. fourthly, the value of monetization is far more far-reaching than most people now understand and represents a huge structural unlocking for wall street. fifth, why digital assetsTreasurycompanyaccumulation systems)(micropolis)Or Bitmine — will play a central role in this process. Indeed, holding shares of these companies is likely to lead to a better future performance than holding directly the encrypted assets themselves。

Staying engaged on Wall Street: coinization to reshape the financial system

Okay, the central theme in 2025 is monetization. But before proceeding, we look back on the last decade. In December 2016, if you buy a 500 index, you'll triple your fund, doing quite well. If you're a gold champion and buy gold, you get four times as much. And if you're smart enough to buy Nvidia, you'll get 65 times more. But if you buy bitcoin 10 years ago -- the first time we recommended bitcoin to Fundstrat clients -- you'll have 112 times more money. What's even more striking is the Taifeng, which returns nearly 500 times, or even more than bitcoin。

Now in 2025, while there have been substantial and substantial gains this year, the market price trend has been very bad. The following are some key points. First, the United States Government has clearly shifted towards supporting encrypted assets and has set the tone for the entire Western world. Secondly, some United States state governments and the federal Government have planned or implemented strategic-level stocks of bitcoin — an event of great importance. Thirdly, the bitcoin of BlackRock, ETF, has now become one of its top five revenue-producing products. It was a matter of great concern to know that the product was only one and a half years from its launch. In the meantimeMorgan ChaseJP MorganI'm not sure— This institution, which has long been critical of encrypted money — has also begun to issue JPM Coin on the Ether. They are not the only participants, and monetization has now become one of the first strategic directions of major financial institutions。

In addition, there are several encrypted primary products that have changed traditional financial decision-making. One of themPolymarketIts projected market produces extremely valuable information — in Fundstrat, we even call it “the closest to the existence of a crystal ball”. Another example is Tether — even though it is a single-product encrypted primary business, it is now one of the 10 “banks” that make the most money in the world。

But the real main line in 2025 was monetization. It all starts with a stable currency, and that's the "ChatGPT Time." Wall Street suddenly realized that the mere monetization of the dollar would generate huge revenues. It is now widely accepted by financial institutions that monetization will reshape the entire financial system。

Larry Fink even called it "the most exciting financial innovation since the double bookkeeping invention." I am not sure how excited this is, but obviously this is a very significant thing. And on DealBook, Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink are on the same stage, which is quite symbolic。

I do not agree with you if you have turned blind because of the performance of the past decade or if you believe that the golden period of the encrypted market is over. There are only 4.4 million bitcoin wallets with a balance of over $10,000; at the same time, nearly 900 million people worldwide hold retirement accounts above that amount. If the future penetration rate of Bitcoin is close to the size of the retirement account, it would mean a 200-fold increase in the rate of adoption — still at the index level and even at hypervelocity. According to a survey of fund managers at Bank of America, 67 per cent of fund managers are still not equipped with bitcoin at all。

wall street wants all assets to be monetized — the size of which is close to $10 billion if real estate and all types of financial assets are included. decentralized trust and security will become crucial in an era dominated by smart agents — and this is the core value that the block chain can provide。

So, for me, the best era of encryption remains ahead。

The market has been built? Witness breaking the four-year cycle

LET ME EXPLAIN WHY I THINK THE PRICE OF ENCRYPTED ASSETS IS ALREADY DOWN. ALTHOUGH GOLD RETURNS HAVE BEEN 61 PER CENT SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, AND THE GPI HAS INCREASED BY NEARLY 20 PER CENT, TRADE PERFORMANCE IN THE ENCRYPTED MARKET APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WINTER; BITCOIN AND THE ETHERA HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE UNTIL THIS YEAR. ArcaJeff Dorman wrote a very good article entitled Unexplainable SalesI'm sorryThe Selling That Nobody Can ExplainI'm not sureI don't know. Many have various theories about the fall in the encryption market, but none can really explain the fall。

I want to stress that bitcoin was strong until October 10. But after that, many began to try to explain the subsequent decline: For example, the potential risks associated with quantum calculations, the traditional four-year cycle, the largest settlement event in history on October 10, the withdrawal of market attention from the AI Concept Unit, MicroStrategy's implication that part of the bitcoin might be sold, MSCI's consideration of removing the index from Digital Asset Treasury, and Tether's downgraded rating. These factors could have an impact, but the point is that the encryption market was still up 36 percent by October 10th, and then it fell straight down. In my view, the central cause of this decline is largely deleveraging。

AFTER THE FTX CRASH, THE MARKETAs a businessmanIt took eight weeks to recover and the price discovery process to restart. About seven and a half weeks have passed since the current round of similar liquidity shocks. About five weeks agoWe're hereBitcoin begins withTom DeMarkCooperation - a legendary market time analyst. I used his target at the bottom of two key points: the low market in March 2020 and the panic sale in April due to customs-related events. He currently serves only two clients, and we are one of them。

TomDeMarkIT IS SUGGESTED THAT WE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN THE BUY-IN OF THE TAIFENG. AS YOU CAN SEE FROM OUR INTERNAL DATA, OUR WEEKLY PURCHASES OF ETH DROPPED BY HALF FROM THE PREVIOUS LEVEL TO 50,000 PER WEEK. BUT NOW WE'RE BACK TO BUYING. LAST WEEK WE BOUGHT NEARLY 100,000 ETHS, TWICE AS MANY AS TWO WEEKS AGO. AND I'LL GIVE YOU A HINT: WE'VE GOT MORE THIS WEEK. THE REASON IS SIMPLE, WE THINK IT'S ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TABLE. WE SEE MUCH IN ITS FUTURE TRENDS。

Turning now to the four-year price cycle of bitcoin — historically, this four-year cycle (or, more precisely, 3.91) has painted almost all the major tops and bottoms. But why would bitcoin have such a cycle? Our digital asset team offers five rational explanations: a half-cycle, monetary policy, leverage/guarantee debt structure, and two other factors — the copper-to-gold ratio and the ISM (United States Business Activity Index). The problem is that several of these variables no longer have a four-year pattern。

IN THE PAST, FOR EXAMPLE, COPPER GOLD USED TO SHOW A PREDICTABLE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE — AND HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN. BUT THAT WAS NOT THE CASE THIS TIME, AND THE MARGIN WAS SUPPOSED TO PEAK THIS YEAR, BUT THERE WAS NO TURNING POINT. SIMILARLY, THE ISM INDEX HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN MARKED BY A FOUR-YEAR CYCLE, BUT HAS RECENTLY REMAINED BELOW 50 FOR THREE AND A HALF CONSECUTIVE YEARS. WHEN WE ALIGN ISM WITH BITCOIN, IT EVEN EXPLAINS THE HISTORY CYCLE BETTER THAN HALVING IT. BUT THIS ROUND, ISM DIDN'T TURN ON THE CYCLE。

So my question is: if the industrial cycle and copper gold are no longer following the four-year tempo, why does bitcoin continue to follow? I don't think bitcoin's up. And the real validation point will appear next January — if Bitcoin is up in January, the four-year cycle will be officially broken。

It's a future financial center

Now let me explain why the Etherwood is at the heart of future finance. This year, the Ether House is going through its own 1971 Moment. In 1971, the United States dollar was removed from the gold standard system, and this transition forced Wall Street to create new financial products to ensure that the dollar would remain in its position as a global reserve currency. By 2025, the same thing was happening in a monetized world – different from the one that was rebuilt not only in dollars, but in all asset classes, including equities, bonds, real estate, and then on smart contracting platforms. And this platform, it's the Ether。

Today, each major financial institution is building products based on block chains, while the majority of the monetization of real-world assets (RWAs) is taking place at the Ether Workshop. The Ether Workshop itself is also being upgraded — for example, the Fusaka upgrade, just completed today, has further enhanced network capacity. Even the early bitcoin developer Eric Voorhees recently said, "The Ether House has won the war on smart contracts."

As for the price dimension, the Etherfrog has been in shock for the past five years, but signs of breakthrough are beginning to emerge. That's one of the reasons why we turned Bitmine into a Taipei Treasury company — a trend that we saw in advance. More importantly, we think ETH/BTC is about to make an important breakthrough. If 2025 were a real year of monetization, the practical value of the Taifeng would be significantly increased。

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR PRICE? I THINK BITCOIN WILL RISE TO $250,000 IN THE COMING MONTHS. IF THE ETH/BTC MARGIN RETURNS TO THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST EIGHT YEARS, IT WILL REACH $12,000 AT THE FARE PRICE; IF IT RETURNS TO ITS HIGH POINT IN 2021, IT WILL BE $22,000. AND IF WE REALLY ASSUME THE ROLE OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITH THE TAIFENG — SOMETHING THAT WE BELIEVE WILL HAPPEN — AND THE ETH/BTC MARGIN RISES TO 0.25, THEN THE COST OF THE TAIFENG WILL BE AROUND $62,000. AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF ABOUT $3000, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE TAIFENG HAS BEEN SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATED。

Long-term value of tokenization

In the last few minutes, let's talk about why the unlocks brought about by the monetization are far greater than one could imagine. Larry Fink believes that we are at the beginning of "all assets begin to be monetized." The advantages of monetization include the ability to achieve fragmentation of assets, lower costs, year-round global transactions, greater transparency and potentially higher liquidity. But these are only basic elements. The real change took place when the monetization was combined with the forecast markets。

Most references to monetization are based on the idea of dividing a painting into multiple tradable shares. In fact, however, you can also “elementally dismantle” an enterprise. For example, you can split Tesla's different income streams and monetize separately; you can even monetize Tesla's present value of gains in 2036. It would be interesting if you thought that Mask's pay plan would make that year particularly critical. You can also monetize product lines, monetize income from different regions, monetize income from subscription services, and even single out the hidden value of Mask himself in the market. All of this will provide Wall Street with new price discovery tools and risk management tools。

Bitmine is actively looking for a project to construct a next-generation monetization system。

DAT: Connecting traditional finance to DeFi

Finally, let's talk about digital assetsTreasuryI'm sorryDi don't knowAsetTi don't know. The real ETA Treasury is essentially a encryption infrastructure company. The introduction of Proof-of-Stake, the Proof-of-Stake system, provides not only security for the network, but also benefits — part of which will become a source of revenue for the Treasury. Treasury companies act as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and de-centre finance (DeFi), and the stabilizers will eventually want to pledge ETH, as it will become the base monetary layer of the system。

But measuring one encryptionTreasuryThe most important indicator of whether a company is truly influential in the market is the liquidity of its stocks. MicroStrategy is now the 17th largest stock in the United States -- it's even more traded than Morgan Chase. Bitmine, which was established only a few months ago, has become the 39th most traded stock in the United States — with a turnover exceeding General Electric, almostCatchSalesforce。

MicroStrategy and Bitmine account for 92% of all transactions in about 80 encrypted treasury-related companies. MicroStrategy is building a "digital credit vehicle" by financializing its own balance sheets, while Bitmine is focusing on connecting Wall Street, the Ether and DeFi ecology。

Bitmine is now the world's largest host of Etherwoods — quite impressive, especially given that five months ago none of us had an ETH. Our Maven pledge programme, when fully deployed, is expected to bring about 2.9 per cent of the pledge rate of return to our hold — which means about $400 million in revenue per year, an average of about $1.3 million per day. And more importantly, it's all done on the basis of a clean balance sheet: more than $12 billion in an ephemeral, a small bit of bitcoin, a series of..High-risk, high-return landingInvestments(moonshot input)And about $900 million in cash。

Our strategy covers many directions - includingMoon LoggingInvestments, e.gAS AN ERC-20 TOKEN WorldcoinThe “Proof-of-Human” project, which is represented; the construction of a pledge infrastructure; the in-depth cooperation with the Etherwood Foundation; investments in the DeFi field; and the formation of Bitmine Labs. We believe that we can really build a bridge between traditional finance and the encrypted world, building on the strength of Bitmine's stock exchange and strong links to Wall Street。

BitMine is also growing into a user-oriented, highly cognitive brand, backed by large community support and our own investment in technology development. Our road map includes the construction of Maven's network of certifiers, large-scale community inputThe moonLevel R & D projects, with the ultimate goal of obtaining at least 5% of the ETA network share in the future。

This concludes my speech. Thank you。