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The prediction machine, Polymarket's ambition is exposed

2026/04/04 02:19
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The expansion of data sources is essentially an expansion of the market radius。

The prediction machine, Polymarket's ambition is exposed
Original title: Re-additioner, Polymarket Ensemble
Original by Azuma, Daily Daily Planet

On the evening of April 2nd, Polymarket officially announced that it would be integrated into the services of Pyth Network, which will be the main market leaderThe latter will be the clearing data source for a new set of traditional asset-related projected events in Polymarket。

According to Polymarket and Pyth Network statements, the events will first cover large commodities such as gold, silver, WTI crude oil and natural gas, more than a dozen United States shares, including British Weeda, apples, Tesla, Coinbase, Palantir, and major stock indices and part of the platform trading fund (ETF) — for example, “Gold will rise or fall” and “Will silver be above or below the target price by a certain point in time” ..

Pyth Network will provide real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket will sample every second and publish in real-time graphics that enable traders to see continuously the location of the market relative to their position。

In his statement, Mustafa Aljadery, the producer of Pollymarket products, stated: “The millions of dollars projected are often likely to depend on a single price point, and the absolute accuracy of the data sources must be ensured, and Pyth Network provides this guarantee, thus allowing Polymark to expand further to high-risk financial markets

Polymarket's Prophecies extend the path

It's not Pollymarket expanding prophecies。

Polymarket's early relying mainly on UMA's Optimistic Oracle mechanism。UMA’S LOGIC IS ESSENTIALLY A “SOCIAL CONSENSUS PROPHECIES” – A MECHANISM THAT IS WELL SUITED TO UNSTRUCTURED EVENTS, SUCH AS POLITICAL ELECTIONS, POLICY CHANGES, SOCIAL HOTSPOTS, ETC., WHERE THE PROPONENTS SUBMIT THE RESULTS, THE CHALLENGERS INITIATE DISPUTES, AND THE VOTERS FINALLY DECIDE。

However, subjective judgement often also implies room for controversy。Historically, Polymarket has repeatedly provoked community discussions about the risks of manipulation and fairness as a result of UMA settlement disputes。

In September 2025When Polymarket begins to push the encrypted currency up and down, it urgently needs to introduce a more definitive data source to reduce the likelihood of human intervention。To this end, Polymarket chose to work with Chainlink at the time, by combining the use of Chainlink Data Streets (which provides low-delayed, time-stamped market prices) and Chainlink Automoment (which is responsible for settling results on the default time enforcement chain), to allow for automatic quick settlement of the BTC, ETH and other encrypted asset crashes above Polymark, while allowing users real-time access to low-delayed and verifiable prices。

In a sense, the integration with Chainlink is that Polymarket, for the first time, extended the toucher from “social consensus prediction” to “automated price judgement”, but Polymarket’s goal is clearly not limited to encrypted money markets。

Compared to Chainlink, the Pyth Network is characterized by data provided directly by trading companies, trading platforms, marketers and banks worldwide, which are actively involved in pricing in the global marketPyth Pro will get data from the highest quality data publisher in the networkIncluding Jump Trading, Blue Ocean, LMAX and Jane Street. Maybe it's because of its global market characteristics that Polymark has finally chosen Pyth Network on traditional sources of financial assets。

Polymarket's ambition

With the collaboration with Pyth NetworkPolymarket has developed a clear multi-level predictive architecture:

• UMA:(b) Non-standard incident layers, responsible for political, social, breaking news, macro events

Chainlink:ENCRYPTED ASSET LAYERS, RESPONSIBLE FOR FEED-UP OF ASSETS ALONG THE BTC, ETH AND AUTOMATED PRICE SETTLEMENTS

• Pyth Network:At the traditional financial level, institutions provide data on the prices of traditional assets such as high-frequency American shares, commodities and indices。

From UMA, which represents non-specified events, to Chainlink, which focuses on encrypted primary markets, to Pyth Network, Polymarket, which is now focused on global financial markets, each time new prophecies are introduced, the platform is moving towards a wider market。The expansion of the prophecy is essentially an expansion of the tradable future. – The more data are available, the more the real world is covered。

If this logic continues, there are virtually no ceilings for the markets that Polymark can be included in the future, and macroeconomic data, corporate financials, sports events, weather changes and even AI models can be accessed through different prognosis machines, and the corresponding markets can be built as long as verifiable data sources exist. The uncertainty of the real world will be consistently broken down into incidents that can be noted。

From this perspectivePolymarket's end may be much more than a mere forecast market, but a "future trading platform" covering all uncertaintiesI don't know. When various types of uncertainty can be integrated into the same mechanism, everything can be charged and everything can be priced. The predictor machine is simply a technological expansion, but behind it is a one-stop super-platform that is emerging, far beyond everyone's estimate。

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