Bitget UEX’s daily newspaper Mei’s negotiations are deadlocked, inflation is worried about heavy pressure on the market; US stock is back and energy prices push up the debt market’s rate of return (18.05.2026)
I. Hot spots
Federal Reserve Developments
Federal Reserve leadership transition: Powell ' s temporary interim chairmanship
- The announcement by the Federal Reserve on 15 May that the current President, Jerome Powell, would assume the “temporary presidency” before Kevin Walsh formally assumed the presidency was consistent with the old and new practice of handover。
- Market concerns shifted to policy continuity after the new President took office, especially under current inflationary pressures。Market impactsThe uncertainty of the transition period or the exacerbation of short-term fluctuations, and investors are assessing the possibility of a reduction in the interest rate of the new leadership in a high oil price environment, have now seen a marked fall in easing expectations。
Major international commodities
The continuing stalemate in the US-Iraq and the obstruction of shipping in the Straits of Hormuz to push up energy prices
- The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have reported drone attacks, further exacerbating regional tensions。
- THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH WTI APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING $105 PER BARREL, PUSHING GLOBAL INFLATION EXPECTATIONS。Market impacts: The risk of energy shortages has led to a sharp rise in the rate of return on the debt market, an increase in the price of investors for the “era of higher interest rates” and a preponderance of stock market risk。
Macroeconomic policy
The rate of return on United States debt is approaching high, and inflation concerns dominate market sentiment
- The 30-year-old US debt rate of return had reached a high of more than 5 per cent over two decades, with a significant rise in the 10-year period; Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital considered the next Fed meeting “never possible”。
- The preliminary results of the Sino-American Trade and Development Consultations included tariff consensus, the establishment of the Board and advancement of market access for agricultural products。Market impactsInflationary expectations are higher and geo-risk is added to suppress risk asset performance while providing some support for precious metals and energy-related plates。
Market revisiting
Foreign exchange performance for bulk commodities
- Cash gold- 1.08 per cent, approximately $4488/ounce。
- Cash and silver- 1.84 per cent, approximately $74.45 per ounce。
- WTI CRUDE OIL: +1.38%, driven by disruption concerns in the Strait of Hormuz, price rises to US$ 103 per barrel。
- Brent crude oil+1.1.12 per cent, USD 110 per barrel。
- United States dollar index+0.13%, strong as 99.37。
Encryption Currency Performance
- BTC- 1.31 per cent, estimated at $77,000; convulsions under geo-macro and geo-pressures and short-term risk aversion。
- ETH3.2 per cent, approximately $2,100; higher volatility following large disks。
- Total market value of encrypted currency- 1.1 per cent, $2.65 trillion。
- Market warehouse situation: 24H TOTAL BLAST WAREHOUSE OF APPROXIMATELY $659 MILLION, WITH MORE THAN $590 MILLION。
- Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation mapIn the immediate vicinity of current prices, the area of resistance above is focused on the settlement area; the area of concentration of long silos needs to be supported below。
- NET INCOMING/OUTWARD SPOT ETF: THE CURRENT BTC PRICE IS IN THE VICINITY OF 76979, WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF HIGH-LEVERAGING SINGLE CLEARING AREA OF $787-79 MILLION ABOVE, WHICH, IF IT CONTINUES TO REBOUND, COULD TRIGGER EMPTY CHAINS AND MAGNIFY UPWARD FLUCTUATIONS. BELOW $76,000-$77 MILLION THERE ARE DENSER AREAS OF SINGLE-LEVERAGE, WHICH, IF BROKEN, ARE SHORT-LINED OR MULTI-HEADED AND FURTHER RETREAT。
United States equity index performance
- FingerDeclining 1.07 per cent, reporting 49,526.11 points; high-level feedback, dominated by inflation concerns。
- Pistol 500Decline of 1.24 per cent to 7,408.50 points; fall from record high。
- Nut finger1.54 per cent down, reporting 26,225.14 points; the pressure on the technology stock is clear。
Technology giant dynamics
- MICROSOFT (MSFT)Report $414.23, -0.68 per cent。
- APPLE (AAPL)+0.68 per cent。
- YVDA (NVDA)Report 225.32, 4.42 per cent。
- Meta (META): US$ 614.23, - 0.68%I don't know。
- AMAZON (AMZN)Report US$ 264.1, - 1.15%。
- GOOGLE (GOGL)Report US$ 396.78, - 1.07%。
- TESLA (TSLA): US$ 422.24, - 4.75 per cent。
Summary: Most giants are under pressure, Microsoft fights and falls against each other on the basis of defensive attributes; inflation is expected to warm up with a high return on US debt, and growth stock valuations are being suppressed, and market funds are being rotated。
Plank Instant Observation
Energy/oilboard blocks: Strong rise, driven by large price increases。
- Representing a unit: ExxonMobilXOMIncrease4.07 per centChevyCVXIncrease2.39 per centSrembecheSLBGood behavior, Harry BurtonHALThe increase is remarkable。
- Drivers: The stalemate in the negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has led to concerns about the disruption of supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of global energy shortages pushing up crude oil prices for the entire industrial chain。
Technology/semiconductor plate: The decline is clear。
- Representative Unit: Optical TechnologyMUFall6.62 per centIntel (INTCFall6.18 per centI don't know。
- DRIVERS: AI INVESTMENT ENTHUSIASM HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED BY HIGH INFLATION, RISING RATES OF RETURN ON UNITED STATES DEBT AND THE EXPECTED TIGHTENING OF INTEREST RATES, AND MARKETS HAVE BEEN PROFITABLE AND WHEELED。
Precious metal mining platesOverall weakness (an average decline of 2-5 per cent for individual units)。
- Driver: The strong dollar index and the upward trend in the rate of return put pressure on unreceivable assets。
III. In-depth interpretation of United States shares
SpaceX - Planned Landing to America Summary of events: Elon Mask has accelerated the IPO process, starting with pricing on 11 June, listing in NASDAQ on 12 June, with a target estimate of approximately $1.75 trillion and planned financing of about $75 billion, which will be one of the largest IPOs in the history of the United States capital market. Agencies such as Belet are considering participating in a $5-10 billion scale subscription。Market interpretation: institutions generally appreciate the long-term structural growth prospects for space and satellite Internet (Starlink), especially in the context of the expansion of global demand for satellite communications and the accelerated commercialization of the space economy. This time IPO is not only a capital event, but is more likely to reshape the market's valuation framework for the “hard technology” giant. However, high valuations also raise concerns about their profitability and implementation risks, and the potential funding rotational effect — some investors or warehoused from Musk-related assets such as Tesla — is of concern。Investment revelation: Initial market liquidity and valuation fluctuated or was significant, suitable for strategic investor tracking with long-term confidence in the space economy and satellite infrastructure rather than short-term engagement。
Three-star electronics - strike risk Summary of eventsOn May 18, the Korean government issued a strong warning that Samsung Electronics would be at risk of the first massive strike in history and that “last chance” negotiations would be resumed. Trade unions insisted on an 18-day strike planned for 21 May, demanding better profit-sharing, and the market had pre-recorded negative expectations。Market interpretation: AS THE WORLD'S LARGEST MEMORY CHIP MANUFACTURER, THREE-STAR SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION CONCERNS HAVE LED TO SIGNIFICANT STOCK PRICE REVERSALS AND A DRAG ON THE OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR PLATE. THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF UNITED STATES DOLLARS PER DAY IF THE STRIKE FALLS ON THE GROUND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE STRAIN ON THE GLOBAL AVAILABILITY OF CHIPS, ESPECIALLY AT A TIME OF HIGH COMPUTING DEMAND IN AI. THE EVENT HIGHLIGHTED THE TWIN CHALLENGES OF THE LABOUR COSTS OF THE TECHNOLOGY GIANT AND THE VULNERABILITY OF GEO-SUPPLY CHAINS, RESONATING WITH THE CURRENT HIGH INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION ENVIRONMENT。Investment revelation: The volatility of the short-term semiconductor plate will be further amplified, and investors will need to closely follow the outcome of the negotiations, whose success or failure will have a direct impact on the supply and demand balance of the industry and the pricing power of the relevant US stock supply chain firms。
3. Microsoft -- Gates Foundation clean-up Summary of eventsThe Bill Gates Foundation Trust, which had left approximately 7.7 million shares in Microsoft stock (valued at approximately $3.2 billion) in a quarterly liquidation, had completely withdrawn from the holdout, which had lasted for decades; and Bill Gates personally still held large shares, while other institutions, such as Bill Ackman, had been substantially stoked over the same period。Market interpretationThis clean-up is mainly based on the Foundation ' s charitable fund allocation and diversification needs, rather than on its vision of Microsoft ' s basics. Microsoft ' s leading position in AI (Copilot), Azure and enterprise-level markets remains strong, with continued high capital spending demonstrating its long-term growth commitment. There is a clear divergence of institutional perspectives: sales provide liquidity, buy and bet on valuation attraction, a development that reflects the institutional game patterns typical of mature technology giants in high valuation environments。Investment revelation: INSTITUTIONAL MOBILITY DOES NOT ALTER THE LONG-TERM POSITIVE TRENDS IN MICROSOFT CORE AI+ CLOUD OPERATIONS, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ATTENTION BE PAID TO THE VALIDATION OF THE QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE OF AI MONETIZATION RATHER THAN TO SINGLE-FUND ACTIONS。
4. Tesla - Model Y price increases Summary of events: Tesla first revised the high-coup prices in the Model Y section of the United States market for the first time in nearly two years: Premium RWD and AWD, each with an increase of $1,000, Performance with an increase of $500, with the opening version unchanged。Market interpretationThis reflects the optimization of pricing strategies under pressure from raw materials, logistics and operating costs, while also testing consumer willingness to pay for electric cars in the current high oil price environment. In markets where competition increases and demand divides, Tesla recovers profits through higher-end car price increases, while base price stability is designed to maintain the sales threshold. While this strategy is positively linked to higher energy prices, there is also a need to guard against the potential disincentives to alternative consumption from the macroeconomic slowdown。Investment revelation: Focus on subsequent delivery data and changes in profitability, and pricing flexibility will be key for Tesla to maintain its advantage in a competitive pattern, suitable for investors concerned with its long-term eco-structure of electric vehicles and energy。
IV. Developments in encryption money projects
- LONG HIBERNATION: NEARLY 60 PER CENT OF THE BTC SUPPLY HAS REMAINED UNALTERED FOR MORE THAN A YEAR, WELL ABOVE 27 PER CENT IN 2012. THE HIBERNATION RATE WAS IN JANUARY 2024BitcoinETF PEAKED AT 69.5 PER CENT AT THE TIME OF APPROVAL AND HAS SINCE REMAINED CLOSE TO HISTORICAL HEIGHTS。
- SLRV INDICATOR: SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM HOLDERS ' VALUE RATIOS ARE AT THE BOTTOM OF HISTORY, INDICATING A CHILLING MOOD ON THE MARKET. LONG-TERM HOLDERS DOMINATE SUPPLY AND SHORT-TERM SPECULATORS ARE LARGELY OUT OF BUSINESS. THE BOTTOM OF EACH CYCLE HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY THE RATE INTO THE CURRENT REGION。
- EXCHANGE BALANCE: SINCE PEAKING AT 17.6 PER CENT DURING THE EPIDEMIC, THE EXCHANGE BALANCE HAS FALLEN TO 15.0 PER CENT, ABOUT 500,000 BTCS HAVE LEFT THE EXCHANGE PERMANENTLY, AND SELLER SUPPLY HAS DROPPED TO A SIX-YEAR LOW。
- STH MVRV INDICATOR: SINCE NOVEMBER 2024, BTC SHORT-TERM HOLDERS MVRV HAVE REMAINED BELOW 1.0 FOR MOST OF THE TIME, GRADUALLY EXHAUSTING SELLER PRESSURE. THE RATE HAS NOW RECOVERED TO 1.0, AND SHORT-TERM HOLDERS HAVE BEGUN TO ACCUMULATE UNREALIZED GAINS. SINCE PROFIT ACCUMULATION IS STILL IN ITS EARLY STAGES, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A NEW ROUND OF SALES PRESSURE WILL EMERGE IMMEDIATELY, A PATTERN THAT HAS HISTORICALLY TENDED TO PRECEDE SUSTAINED RECOVERY。
CryptoBriefing reported that Iran had launched its State-supported digital maritime insurance platform, Hormuz Safe, to provide maritime insurance for ships passing through the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz and to settle in bitcoin and other encrypted currencies. In the view of the Government of Iran, the platform could generate more than $10 billion in revenue if it could take up a significant share of the Persian Gulf shipping insurance market. Hormuz Safe aims to reduce Iran ' s dependence on traditional financial infrastructure by bypassing the SWIFT network and Western intermediaries. The greatest obstacle to the platform is international recognition, and the risk of secondary sanctions may be triggered by interaction between shipowners, trading companies or port authorities。
According to TsLombard, global central bank policy tightening may be quite limited in the face of oil price shocks, and a radical austerity cycle is unlikely to occur. In the United States, the Fed is less likely to impose policy austerity in the short term, and if there is one, it can almost certainly wait until 2027。
5 ZRO, KATO, PYTH, AMONG OTHERS, WILL BE RELEASED THIS WEEK WITH A TOTAL VALUE OF APPROXIMATELY US$ 95.5 MILLION。
Six, CriptoQuant Analyst Axel Adler wrote that Bitcoin had hit around $82,000 three times in the recent past, but had all experienced a fall. The data show that during each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator went up to the vicinity of 1.0 and was again weak, indicating that short-term holders were taking advantage of the upward trend to make sustained departures rather than continuing to hold。
Axel Adler points out that $82,000 is not only a critical barrier at the technical level, but also an important depressive area at the level of market behaviour. The position is currently aligned with the 200-day average (200D SMA) of Bitcoin, where the market rebound may still be considered as an opportunity to sell before the 1.0-day constant of STH-SOPR SMA (7) and the BTC-day average is effectively breached。
AT THE MACRO LEVEL, THE ESCALATION OF THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS MARKET RISK PREFERENCES. AS A RESULT OF THE IRANIAN CONFLICT, OIL PRICE HIKES AND “HIGH INTEREST RATES” EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER, THE UNITED STATES STOCK FELL ON A FULL FRIDAY, WITH WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES RISING BY OVER 4 PER CENT, WITH ANNUAL ANNUAL RATES OF RETURN ON UNITED STATES DEBT RISING TO ABOUT 4.6 PER CENT, RISING TO A NEW PEAK IN THE YEAR。
V. Today ' s market calendar
Data release schedules
| Focus on America | United States | Follow-up of relevant economic data | Zenium |
The big news
- Tristar bargaining18 May - Concerned about agreement and supply chain implications。
- GOOGLE I/O CONGRESS19-20 MAY - EXPECTED AI TECHNICAL UPDATE。
Institutional perspective:
ACCORDING TO SUCH INSTITUTIONS AS GOLDMAN SACHS, THE GREATEST CURRENT MARKET THREAT LIES IN “IRAN'S RISK SUPERIMPOSED INTEREST RATE STORM”. ECONOMIC GROWTH PRICING HAS BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC, WHILE GEO-TAIL RISKS HAVE BEEN LOWER, AND ONCE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS BEEN EXTENDED, ENERGY RE-PRICING AND VOLATILE. THE INFLATION ENVIRONMENT LIMITS THE FEDERAL RESERVE SPACE AND RAISES THE THRESHOLD OF VOLATILITY AFTER THE STOCK MARKET REBOUNDS, SUGGESTING THAT INVESTORS BE PREPARED FOR GREATER UNCERTAINTY. OVERALL, SHORT-TERM MACRO-GEO-GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS DOMINATE AND THERE IS STILL A LONG-TERM NEED TO FOCUS ON AI AND STRUCTURAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY TRANSFORMATION。
DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS COLLATED BY AI, MANUALLY ISSUED ONLY FOR VALIDATION AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR INVESTMENT. FOR UNAVOIDABLE DEVIATIONS IN THE TEXT, PLEASE REFER TO MARKET INSTANTANEOUS DATA。
