Seventy-five billion dollars in risk asset redistribution: how does SpaceX, once on the market, engage with American shares and bitcoin

By Chloe, Challenger

 

SpaceX was listed this time, not the "rocket company is finally on the market," but the same table where it put US shares, AI, encrypted money and passive fund funds。

It was reported that SpaceX (SPCX.O) US dollar IPO had an indicative opening price of US$ 172 on its first day and that its IPO was issued at US$ 135 per share. This fund-raising exercise, estimated at US$ 75 billion, valued at about US$ 1.77 trillion, was close to three times the size of IPO in Saudi Arabia and the United States in 2019, making it the “largest IPO ever”。

Prior to opening on June 12th, the three major shares of the United States stock indicated high futures, and SpaceX was considered one of the most important events of the day; the pre-discretion quotation guide indicated that SPCX could be offered at between $170 and $175, about 26 to 30 per cent higher than the IPO price of $135. This suggests that the US stock short-term looks at SpaceX as an "AI + Space + Mask premium" super-growth, not just a space manufacturing company。

Bitcoin per se did not rise because of SpaceX, and WSJ reported that bitcoin was stable around $63,300 before it was listed; but the encrypted derivatives market was “fired” SpaceX, SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuated, pointed to a price of about $175 and traded more than $200 million for 24 hours. In other words, the spot bitcoin is cool, and the chain/ring traders consider SpaceX the next high Beta narrative。

Large-scale funds are being set aside to raise funds

75 billion dollars IPO is the largest pump ever? The answer is, if only IPO-level markets, it's almost. The $75 billion meant that funds that might otherwise have stayed in equities, ETFs, money market funds, encrypted assets or other scientific and technological units had been redirected to a new stock. More critically, it is reported that SpaceX has three to four times the demand and a potential demand of more than $250 billion, which means that the market is not just being “swiped out of $75 billion”, but that there are larger sums of money that are being set aside for financing。

Such pumping does not necessarily immediately cause the US stock to fall, as it may also have wealth effects: the middle-signers benefit from openings, the index funds expect purchases, and the bulky pursues new narratives, all of which magnify risk preferences at short notice. In the medium term, however, the risk is that if SpaceX is rapidly integrated into a large index, retirement accounts, passive ETFs and model portfolios will be passively increased, making the asset allocation of ordinary investors more focused on AI/technology giant narratives. Guardian comments also point out that SpaceX and subsequent AI IPO waves may have allowed United States investors to bind more deeply AI assets into their financial future。

The best historical mirror here is the 2021 Coinbase listing. Coinbase was listed directly on 14 April 2021, at an opening price of $381, with a completely diluted valuation of about $102 billion; on the same date, bitcoin touched the height of approximately $64,800. But this high-light time of "encrypted finance into mainstream capital markets" later became a short-line top signal: on May 19, 2021, Bitcoin fell to the edge of $30,000, almost cutting from the top. Strictly speaking, the direction of "about five to six weeks after listing" was established between 14 April and 19 May, about five weeks and less than six weeks。

So SpaceX will follow Coinbase, not to say that Bitcoin is bound to collapse when SpaceX comes on the market; rather, when a representative company in an industry enters the open market with a very high value, it often means that narratives have been priced to the maximum. Coinbase is an "encrypted exchange" or "encrypted cow market bar mitzvah" and SpaceX is like an "AI, space, maské ecology" bar mitzvah. The bar mitzvah was lively, but there was no guarantee that there was no hangover。

SpaceX holds bitcoin or another agency uses milestones

The opposite view is that Bitcoin is not entirely on the side of blood drawn this time. According to WSJ and Business Insider citing SpaceX S-1, SpaceX holds approximately 18,712 bitcoins at a cost of approximately $661 million; the market value is close to $1.2 billion at prices around $63,300. This is an endorsement of the specialty narrative: it is no longer just an asset of an exchange, a mining company or a “encrypted native company” such as Strategy, but it appears on the balance sheet of the largest technology/space giant of global interest。

However, such endorsements need to distinguish between “signal values” and “financial weights”. Bitcoin, 1.2 billion United States dollars, compared to SpaceX, estimated at 1.77 trillion United States dollars, representing only about 0.07 per cent; it is sufficient to reinforce the image of Bitcoin as an asset of the business bank, but not enough to be a central pillar of SpaceX valuation. Moreover, there are differences in research: there are studies that suggest that the adoption of ETFs would increase the relevance of the Bitcoin and US stock indices and weaken their traditional “dispersional risk” role。

According to the 2026 cycle portfolio study, the return on encrypted investment is more determined by the entry point than by the configuration model itself. So SpaceX listed bitcoin as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, $750 billion IPO could become a risk asset pump, allowing some of the money to flow from the encrypted market to more mainstream and mobile AI/space equities; on the other hand, SpaceX held 18,712 BTCs, which were endorsed by a bitcoin agency ' s balance sheet。

Finally, SpaceX IPO has a short-term preference for “financial competition” in the encrypted market, and a medium- and long-term preference for “postnote endorsement”. If SPCX goes up after listing, the market will say that money is leaving encrypted currency and moving to AI+ space; but if more unencrypted firms put BTC in the balance sheet in the future, SpaceX, 18,712 bitcoins, which may be read backwards as milestones for another institution. And that's where it's fascinating: the same IPO, which could be a water pump or a certification stamp。