Bitwise: Three institutions, three answers, where is the bottom of the encryption market

Original title: Has the Crystal Market Bottomed?

Original by Matt Hougan, Chief Investmentr of Bitwise Officers
Photo by Chopper, Foresight News

Over the past two weeks, with the exception of Bitwise, all three institutions of my longstanding interest in the encryption industry have published in-depth research on the same topic: has the encryption market reached its bottom

• Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has not yet been found and data points to the potential bottom zone

• NYDIG: WHAT FACTORS ARE SUPPRESSING BITCOIN

• Scum banks: at the bottom of the market

The three reports are informative and contain big data and a full logical evolution and deserve complete reading. But if you want a simple, unified answer, I am afraid that you will be disappointed: the judgements of the three authorities are very different。

Have you seen the market

• Galaxy Digital: No

· NYDIG: IT'S POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY

• Standard Chartered Bank: already seen

Here we break down the core logic of each institution。

Three institutions, three perspectives

Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital combs out the complete history of 17 years of bitcoin and summarizes the 13 indicators that will come together when the market really bottoms up, covering valuation, profit-cutting, miner pressure, behavioral trends, bull bear cycles, and market emotions. The long-term focus on Bitcoin investors is not alien to these indicators, including 200 weekly averages, the Fear of Greed Index, and Mayr multiples。

Galaxy found that only 4 indicators were currently fully met, 2 were partially met and the remaining 7 did not trigger a bottom signal. The report concludes that Bitcoin is between $30,000 and $54,000 at the bottom of the round and the neutral baseline between $40,000 and $46,000 at the bottom。

NYDIG

THE NYDIG ALSO USES A MULTI-INDICATOR COMPREHENSIVE DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK, WHICH COMPARES THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH THE HISTORICAL CYCLE, ASSESSING THE STATE OF THE MARKET FROM THE MAXIMUM RETREAT TIME TO THE HOLDER'S GAIN OR LOSS (KNOWN BY BITCOIN USERS AS MVRV, I.E. THE RATIO OF MARKET VALUE TO REAL VALUE)。

ACCORDING TO NYDIG, THE CURRENT INDICATORS ARE CLOSE TO THE EXTREMES OF THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO PAST EPISODES OF A GENERAL PANIC SALE IN BEAR CITY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE REPORT PROPOSES A VARIABLE: THE ENTRY OF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS FROM THE BOTTOM HAS CHANGED THE LOGIC OF THE BITCOIN CYCLE, AND THE CURRENT ROUND MAY BE SMALLER THAN THE HISTORICAL BEAR MARKET, FROM WHICH POINT OF VIEW THE BOTTOM MAY ALREADY APPEAR。

Scum Bank

IT'S NOT JUST THE DOBITCOIN. WHEN THE BITCOIN PRICE WAS $67,000 IN FEBRUARY OF THIS YEAR, THE BANK REDUCED ITS ANNUAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS, AND THE EARLY WARNING PRICE COULD FALL TO $50,000, ON THE GROUNDS OF WEAK MACROECONOMICS AND CONTINUED PRESSURE ON BITCOIN ETF。

Last week, however, the bank updated its view and identified $59,000 as the bottom of the line. The two main logic underpinning this view are the United States or a diplomatic agreement with Iran, and the expected SpaceX is about to be IPO. The scum argued that a large number of ETF holders had previously sold bitcoin in order to raise funds to participate in the SpaceX listing, and that the pressure would gradually recede. The scum is up to date and the bitcoin will hit $100,000 in the year。

The consensus in the three reports is far greater than the disagreement

You may wonder what useful information can be derived from the three completely opposing reports. In fact, the bottom of the three reports is much more common than apparent disagreement. In the case of long-term investors, the agreed conclusions are far more relevant than differences:

• All three judged that the bottom of the current round would appear during the year

• According to all three, the current walk distance is closer at the bottom than at a higher point than in the preceding period

• All three agree that bitcoin will still be coming to a new round of cattle。

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $67,000. One report stated that $59,000 had appeared at the bottom, one down to $50,000, and a neutral base of $43,000. But the core conclusion is highly consistent: it must be bottom-up during the year。

This is what long-term investors should focus most on. Whether the bottom tribe is 40,000, 50,000 or 60,000, the difference is really limited; the real point is whether the next bitcoin can go up to 100,000, 200,000 or even millions. As long as the above prices are reached and held at current prices, the yield space is significant。

There is an extremely ironic phenomenon in the market at the moment, where everyone is struggling with the bottom of the market, while ignoring the more important question — whether the top has emerged. It seems to me that bitcoin has long-term configuration value as long as the vertex is not here。

The core logic underpinning the long-term value of bitcoin has not disappeared, but has continued to strengthen: the accumulation of government debt and the absence of effective solutions to it; the real purchasing power of inflation to dilute wealth; the continuing decline in public trust in centralized institutions, such as government, banks and others; the continued acceleration of the global digitalization process; improved trading and investment channels for bitcoin; and early age growth of encrypted primary groups, with assets rising in step with industry influence。

There are, of course, potential risks in the market, including the threat of quantum computing, global regulatory tightening, etc. In sum, however, the situation is much better than in any past winter of encrypted currency。

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