Polymarket, Kalshi, making a lasting contract, and the exchange is stealing from the market

Original Odaily Daily@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author Asher@Asher 0210I'm not sure

The market is forecast to “accelerate” its evolution。

Yesterday, PolymarketSENDING ON X PLATFORM, willIntroduction of the Perps function, which is linked to encrypted currency, United States equities and bulk commoditiesIn the future, users can use leverage on the platform to predict market transactions, and early access to registration channels is now open. So far, more than 16 million tweets have been viewed, and market sentiment has been ignited in an instant --Forecasting markets, moving from “judging” to “leveraging”I don't know。

Polymarket set up a permanent contract market

In addition, another giant, Kalshi, started to release signals. On 14 April, in an official prognosis video, a rotating green spiral eventually shrunk to “timeless”, implying that the product would break the “time” limit. There is widespread speculation in the communityThis update or the introduction of a permanent forecast market without maturity。

Kalshi, or a permanent contract market

On April 22, according to the exclusive source of information, Kalshi plans to launch a renewable future productIt is expected that the model will be extended to large commodity and other asset classes in the future, starting with a continuing contract linking encryptionI don't know. The initial use of the United States dollar as collateral will be followed by the introduction of stabilization currency support。

It's not a simple product upgrade, it's more like a clear expansionI don't know. Hyperliquid is rewriting rules from the bottom - allowing anyone to issue a contract on their platform for perpetuity, even including the election results, competition scores, macrodata, etc. In other words, the “show demand” layer at the centre of the market is projected to be swallowed up directly by primary derivative agreements. This proposal was put online for testing in early February。

Under such pressure, Polymarket's synchronization with Kalshi's “Perpsization” is more of a proactive defense than an attack — responding to the spillover of Hyperliquid's core needs by introducing a permanent contract。

But the real variable is more than that. On the other side, the centralization exchange has entered the site quietly when the centralization agreement begins to invade the forecast market. The forecast market is becoming a competitive infrastructure。

Currency: BNB Chain Ecological Forecast Market predict.fun access to main station, currently available in some parts of the country

Instead of choosing to make a zero forecast market, François is directly connected to the largest forecast market platform on BNB ChainI don't know。

On March 31st, the currency purse announced that it would be on-line for the Predition Markets function, with the core partner being the head agreement on BNB Chain, predict.fun. Users do not need to jump to an external platform and can be involved in predicting transactions directly in App, using USDT in the account, while supporting transactions such as market prices, price limits, etc. Together with independent account and Gas fee subsidies, the design is essentially doing one thing --Converting the forecast market from the original chain to “exchange experience” products。

On 9 April, Banan issued an official communiqué stating:In its Wallet, integrate the Predition Markets function, opening the Probabilistic Trading Entrance to users by accessing the third-party chain to predict the market platform Predict.fun。The product covers a number of categories, such as sports, macros, encryption, etc., but François is not involved in making a market or adjudicative result in itself, but focuses on the “entry layer” — linking the user to the chain prediction protocol。

Showcasing of the market forecast for the main station (currently available only in part)

In addition, at a side event organized by BNB Chain in Hong Kong last weekend, according to user feedback, Predict.fun appeared not only as the main sponsor, but also gained a location on the scene close to “C”。

OKX: FIRST BLAST, PREDICTING A GRADUAL RISE IN MARKET LAYOUT

Long before the official product signal came, news of the OkX layout forecast market was being circulated. In February, recruitment information indicated that OKX had started recruiting “DeFi traders (forecasting markets/sports)”。

GREAT BRITAIN ABOUT OKX RECRUITMENT OF MARKET-RELATED EMPLOYEES

Since then, KOL AB Kuai. Dong has reported that a head exchange is long-term contracting for new market products, KOL, and that internal products are close to being developedIt's expected to go online from 5 to JuneI DON'T KNOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION IN JAPAN ' S OFFLINE ACTIVITIES, THE MARKET GENERALLY POINTS TO OKX。

KOL AB Kuai. Dong News

AFTER APRIL, THE SIGNALS BEGAN TO MOVE FROM ANECDOTAL TO PRODUCT LEVEL. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH, THE OKX PRODUCT FILE PAGE CAME ON THE LINE ON THE "PROPHET MARKET/INCIDENT CONTRACT" CONTENT, INCLUDING DOCUMENTS SUCH AS "HOW TO TRADE THE INCIDENT CONTRACT AND TRANSACTION LOGIC DESCRIPTION" "WHAT IS THE EVENT CONTRACT". IT IS MENTIONED IN THE DOCUMENT THAT THE EVENT CONTRACT IS A DERIVATIVE PRODUCT THAT DEFINES THE EVENT IN NATURAL LANGUAGE AND SETTLES THE PROCEEDS ON THE BASIS OF THE END RESULT, A DESIGN THAT HAS ALSO BEEN WIDELY INTERPRETED AS A “SIMPLIFIED VERSION” OF FORECAST MARKET PATTERNS。

More crucially, last weekend, CEO OkX Star sent a letter confirming the direction directly by side: Events & Options have been upgraded to allow users to forecast and trade around events such as 15 minutes of price fluctuations, and within-day price zones, and to support single transactions and multi-strategy combinations. This statement further links previously dispersed product signals to market speculation。

OKX CEO Star post & nbsp; Events & Options upgraded

FROM THE INFORMATION CURRENTLY DISCLOSED, THE SO-CALLED “INCIDENT CONTRACT” IS MORE LIKE A CEX VERSION OF THE FORECAST MARKET PROTOTYPE, WHICH IS MAINLY CENTRED ON SHORT-TERM PRICE RESULTS FOR BTC, ETH, E.G., 15 MINUTES TO RISE OR FALL, TO REACH THE TARGET PRICE, ETC. WITHOUT CHANGING THE DERIVATIVES FRAMEWORK, THE “EVENT JUDGEMENT” IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADING STRUCTURE, LOWERING THE THRESHOLD OF UNDERSTANDING AND LEAVING ROOM FOR SUBSEQUENT PRODUCT EXPANSION。

MEXC: A SELF-ESTABLISHED PLATFORM FOR FORECASTING MARKETS

On March 16, 2026MEXC Official Access(INCIDENT CONTRACT) BECAME ONE OF A FEW CEXS THAT HAD BEEN LAUNCHED EARLIER。

MEXC FORECAST MARKET BLOCK

IN TERMS OF PRODUCT PATTERNS, THE PROJECTED MARKET FOR MEXC IS ESSENTIALLY A CENTRALIZED VERSION OF THE EVENT CONTRACT THAT ALLOWS USERS TO TRADE AROUND KEY GEOPOLITICAL, MACROECONOMIC AND ENCRYPTION EVENTS。

At the experience levelMEXC EMPHASISES “PRIMARY INTEGRATION”Under the Unified System of Accounts, users can participate directly in transactions with cash or contractual account funds without chaining operations or moving assets, while further lowering the participation threshold through zero transaction fees, zero settlement fees (public measurement periods) and milliseconds. Overall, the path is more direct — predicting markets as a new type of contractual product within the exchange, rather than external expansion。

Gate.io and Bitget: as well as access to Polymark, the path is completely different

In addition to self-building and protocol access, there is a need for more informationGate.io and Bitget chose the third path - a direct integration of the head forecast market platform PolymarketI don't know. However, there is a marked difference between the way the two enter and the form of the product。

Gate.io uses the most direct product integration path. On March 24, it was embedded directly in the Portmarket portal in the main App, and users could use USDT in the account to participate in the Yes/No trade without jumping or connecting their wallets, and the backstage automatically completed the USDC settlement and the Polygon chain. On this basis, Gate also provides two sets of interfaces between “predict” (predictor) and “trade mode” (specialized tools such as order books, K-lines, etc.), which are essentially a complete “move” of Polymarket into the system of exchanges, significantly reducing the threshold of use while retaining its existing liquidity。

Gate Main Station Access Polymarket

By contrast, the integration of Bitget currently occurs on & nbsp; Bitget Wallet. On April 21Bitget Wallet Inner Native Integrated PolymarkUsers can view and trade events directly in their own hosting environment, while introducing AI support tools to provide data analysis and decision-making references for high frequency events such as sports. Under this model, assets remain under user control and experience is more central, while operational complexity is reduced by the abstract and easy-to-charge method of gas。

Bitget Wallet Access Polymarket

Summary

Instead of the new battlefield where Polymarket and Kalshi are fighting for a lasting contract, the Centralized Exchange has begun to systematically enter the forecast market, separating users and transaction needs that belong to the original platform。

In contrast, the advantages of the centralized exchange in terms of financial access, liquidity and user size remain evident. The forecast market piece of cake is being redistributed as families move in。