DID THE BTC NARRATIVE OF DIGITAL GOLD FAIL

Author:@wuk Bitcoin

 

The article says nothing about predictions or macro narratives, but only three things from Jason's perspective:

• How do you see bitcoin as an asset
• How do you understand the fall
• What about the next medium- and long-term development of bitcoin

It must be made clear that what is being said here is not an investment proposal, but a framework for thinking. Before any investment, ask one thing: can you take the corresponding risk。

Number one: What do you think of bitcoin

I continue to believe that Bitcoin is an entirely new asset class and, in the long term, a better “gold” asset

(1) The total number is limited, 21 million, written in code, and no one can change it. Gold is also being mined annually, not in bitcoin。

(2) Transferability is extremely high. One hundred million dollars of gold, moving from one country to another, requires armed transport; one billion dollars of bitcoin, only a key. In an era of increasing geopolitical and global uncertainty, the transferability of assets itself has a premium。

(3) Auditable. Every bitcoin deal is on the chain, and anyone can verify it. And the gold reserves, you can only trust the central bank’s statements. In fact, the gold reserves of the United States have not been audited independently by a real third party for many years。

Some would say that bitcoin is mainly used in grey areas. This view is outdated. More and more countries now have financial centres that legislate and comply, crowding out the grey part. Historically, most subversive technologies have come this way, with the early Internet, the early electronic payment, being confused and then regulated. There is also a key figure; the global penetration of digital currencies is about 3-4% today. By contrast, the global penetration rate was about 5 per cent when the Internet burst in 2000; China's penetration rate was about 3 per cent when the electrician came on the market in 2014 and 60 per cent after 10 years。

I'm not saying that bitcoin will copy this curve. Rather, if you believe that this is a real and long-term asset class, that 3-4 per cent means that it is still very early. Early is an opportunity, but it also means that volatility is very high

Number two: How to understand the fall

First, the facts, bitcoin peaked in October 2025, close to $126,000. The following four months saw a steady decline, peaking on 5-6 February 2026, with a 15 per cent single-day fall and a break of $61,000. The Panic Greed Index has fallen to a single digit, an extreme zone that has occurred only a few times in history. Then the next day, 11 per cent rebounded and re-positioned 70,000。

That's bitcoin, which is several times more volatile than traditional assets. If you drop 15% a day, you won't be able to sleep. This is not a question of capacity, but of nerve tolerance。

Why did you fall? My judgement is that this is a cyclical sale with a high degree of consensus. Bitcoin has a very clear four-year cycle, as its launch mechanism is halved every four years. Historically, every 12 to 18 months after halving, there is a high cyclical point and then a echo. The last halving was in April 2024 and in October 2025, almost 18 months, almost perfect for history. It does not mean that it is consensus. Consensus, on the other hand, means that old players, who have experienced multiple cycles of history, will begin to sell systematically at this time, targeting profits. Long-term prognosis and stage sales are never contradictory. Gold fell from 1900 in 2011 to 1050 in 2015, down 45 per cent, then rising to almost 5,000 today

THE REAL DIFFERENCE IN THIS ROUND IS ETF AND HAND CHANGE. THE APPROVAL OF THE BITCOIN ETF BY THE UNITED STATES IN 2024 IS INDEED IMPORTANT, AS IT PROVIDES A SINGLE ENTRY POINT FOR SUBSTANTIAL INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS. HOWEVER, THIS WAS IGNORED BY MANY, AND ETF BROUGHT NEW BUYERS IN, BUT NOT THE OLD ONES. FORMER BITCOIN HOLDERS WERE MAINLY IN TWO CATEGORIES: EARLY MINERS AND THE FIRST GROUP OF BELIEVERS (OGS), WHO WERE EXTREMELY LOW-COST, SOME EVEN HUNDREDS OF DOLLARS. WHEN BITCOIN SHOWED UP WITH A BUNCH OF AGENCIES, IT WENT UP TO $120,000, WOULD YOU SELL THEM? PROBABLY. SO I THINK THAT THIS ROUND IS NOT ESSENTIALLY A BITCOIN FAILURE, BUT A HISTORIC CHANGE OF HANDS THAT BITCOIN MUST EXPERIENCE BEFORE BECOMING A MAINSTREAM ASSET. CHANGE FROM EARLY BELIEVERS TO LONG-TERM CONFIGURATION. ETF IS ONLY THE FIRST STEP AND THE HAND EXCHANGE MAY NOT BE OVER。

A pattern that is often ignored; if you look at bitcoin history together, you find an interesting phenomenon。

Fall from $32 to $2 in 2011, a 93 per cent decline

Fall from $1,100 to $170 in 2013-2015, or 85 per cent

Falled from about $20,000 to $3,200 in 2017, or 84 per cent

Falling from $69,000 to $15,500 in 2021-2022, a 77 per cent decline

By 2025 and 2026, it had dropped by about 50 per cent

each one of them falls narrow. this usually means one thing: assets are mature and volatility is declining because the holder structure is changing. of course, 50 per cent of the retreats are still large, but it's not bug, it's feature. high fluctuations are the cost of over-rewards, and if only 5 per cent of bitcoin fluctuates, its long-term returns are similar to those of national debt。

Third: What about the long term

I have a simple framework, and if you believe that bitcoin is digital gold, then it should have a long-term value for marked physical gold. Today the market value of gold is about $20 trillion, and at $7,000, the total price of bitcoin is about $1.4 trillion, equivalent to only 7 per cent of gold. Even if only half of this narrative is honoured, Bitcoin is 30-50 per cent of the market value of gold, and today there is still a great deal of access。

But I have two things to tell you honestly: I really didn't suggest that you buy it now, that the change of hands may not be over, that the short-term market is still fragile, that 50 per cent may not be the bottom, or that no one knows, that the person who knows is a fairy; there is still no investment proposal, and the volatility of digital assets is not suitable for most people。

What's the real risk? One would ask whether Bitcoin will be zero, and I personally feel that his chances of zero may be lower than its chances of long-term movement to half the value of gold. The real risk is often not the asset itself, but in two things:

(1) your silo structure. if you're all in, leverage, spend the money you shouldn't, even ten times more than the future of the tt, you'll be forced out on the way, and the worst way to do it

(2) The depth of your understanding of assets. If you're just listening to people say it's gonna go up, you're gonna lose 50%. Only when you really understand its underlying logic can you be rational when you fall。

I'll give you a simple math question. If this cycle, like the last one, is 75% down from the top to the bottom, then you're already down 50% and can you afford another 50% down? It's not prediction, it's arithmetic。

Last Contrast

In 2000, there was a company that we all knew, and the stock price fell from $113 to $5.5, a 95 per cent decline. At that time, everyone said that the Internet bubble had broken and the electrician had failed. Today, the company's share price is about $240, about 42 times higher, and it's called Amazon. Afterward, of course, is easy, but only if you live until that day。

The same is true of Bitcoin, whose long-term logic has not changed, but whose short-term fluctuations are sufficient to kill anyone who does not manage a warehouse. So what really matters is never whether it will rise, but whether you can live until that day。

Finally, I would like to ask the question: when gold goes up by 60 per cent and bitcoin goes down by 50 per cent, do you think that this narrative of digital gold has failed, or does it mean that the rotation is not over? Bitcoin evolved from speculative assets to allocated assets? Or is it really a speculation

What you're saying is that your faith in the bottom of this asset class is actually revealed。