SpaceX listed core window for transactions: 7 July after incorporation and July press release

Original author: Xu Xiu

Original source:See you on Wall Street

SpaceX is about to usher in a historic IPO on Friday, with a final release price of $135 and an initial paper value of $1.75 trillion. As a super-unicorn of rare scale in Wall Street ' s history, post-market price paths and chips have aroused the frenzy of global investors。

A well-known Tesla community opinion leader, former Wall Street analyst, Alexandra Mertz (Internet name Tesla Boomer Mama), recently engaged in an in-depth conversation with the moderator Herbert. According to Mertz, because of the extremely low initial free circulation (only 4.3 per cent), SpaceX was in the early stages of listing or was about to usher in an epic chip vacuum。

According to Bloomberg, WednesdayIntropic measurements by the index rebalancing predictor indicate that, as NASDAQ, Fuxado and MSCI all plan to fast-track SpaceX into the sub-bid index, passive investors are expected to hold approximately 30 per cent of SpaceX circulation shares only 15 days after listing. By contrast, if the earlier slower integration rule were to be followed, it would be only about 4 per cent。

Academic and market observers have warned that the mechanical demand of this scale, combined with market fanaticism towards Mask, SpaceX and artificial intelligence, may form a self-reinforcing feedback cycle that will drive stock prices to continue to rise。

Mertz argues that investors need to keep an eye on two critical points of value:THE PEAK OF PASSIVE BUYOUT BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE 7TH OF JULY, THE OFFICIAL INCORPORATION OF THE 100TH, AND THE RELEASE OF SHAREHOLDERS IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE SECOND HALF OF JULY, TWO DAYS AFTER THE Q2 PRESS CONFERENCE, TO COINCIDE WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A POTENTIAL MERGER。BEHIND THIS HIGHLY SOPHISTICATEDLY DESIGNED IPO IS ALSO THE HUGE CAPITAL GAME OF MASK SETTLING HIS OWN $7 BILLION IN TAX MATTERS AND USING WALL STREET FOR PROFIT。

Summary of core views

7 July: The United States passive capital builder will collide with free circulation at the lowest historical point. The market predicts that this share of passive purchases will be in the range of $8 to $18 billion (more closely approaching $15 billion). As the stock was not sold by the older shareholders at that time, the market was in the lowest circulation。

TWO DAYS AFTER THE Q2 REPORT, THE BAN WAS LIFTEDThe initial release amounts to 30 per cent, but after a one-year absolute ban of 50 per cent of Mask's own share, the actual discharge was only 10-15 per cent。

July “reciprocal merger” guess: Mask faces tax pressure of $7 billion to exercise Tesla options by 15 August. The announcement of a “share-for-stock” reciprocal merger between SpaceX stock price peaks on 7 July and the release of the financial embargo at the end of July was an extremely clear capital script that was consistent with the Mask style。

The Wall Street Club's interests are exchanged: The old institutions of Schwab, Dharma, Moo, Tesla, have rarely received a SpaceX IPO quota. This is the “yes” of the body that Mask had pre-defined for the November joint vote at the shareholders' conference。

I. Extremely low volume of free circulation (4.3 per cent): Grok model forecasts 7 July stock prices or double

SpaceX (stock code tentatively SPCX) has an IPO price of $135, with an initial paper market value of $1.75 trillion. A total of 555 million units of General A (approximately $7.5 billion in financing) are planned。Since the current market has oversubscribed twice as muchThe underwriter is highly likely to fully exercise its “green shoe options” (oversale options) within 30 days, raising the total financing to $8.6 billion。

DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FINANCING, CATEGORY A SHARES ISSUED REPRESENT ONLY 4.3 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE. WHICH MEANS..In the early days of SpaceX, free circulation (Float) was extremely scarceSpaceX will have a very strong bargaining vacuum within 15 trading days after listing。

First critical point: 7 July& nbsp; This is the first trading day after Independence Day weekend and the fifteenth trading day after IPONASDAQ 100 Index will be formally incorporated into SpaceXI don't know。

At that time, major index funds, such as Vanguard CRSP, FTSE Russell, must have a passive and unconditional presence on the open market under the Float-adjusted mechanism。

The market predicts that this share of passive purchases will be in the range of $8 to $18 billion (more closely approaching $15 billion). As the stock was not sold by the older shareholders at that time, the market was in the lowest circulation。

The “precision debarment” of the booking board: halved the amount of $135 built at a firm price

Regular IPO locks are usually simple one-size-fits-all (e.g., 180 days), but SpaceX locks are regularly closed (debarment) schedules that are precisely tied to Q2 telephone conferences。

SECOND CRITICAL POINT: TWO WORKING DAYS AFTER THE Q2 FISCAL CONFERENCE (EXPECTED 22 OR 29 JULY)

After the teleconference on the second quarter of the market rumor, the first large-scale lifting of up to 30 per cent by insider shareholders will trigger a panic in the market。

However, Alexandra made it clear in his conversation that the market analysts had ignored the core equity structure:Among the early insider shareholders, the head (about 50 per cent) was Mask himself. As the founder, Mask ' s shares were subject to a strict ban of 366 days。

SO, TWO DAYS AFTER THE Q2 FINANCIAL CONFERENCE, THE REAL FLOW TO THE OPEN MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE RELEASED. UNITNot 30%, actually 10% to 15%I don't know。

In addition, there was a high degree of unanimity among the early shareholders:

Ron Baron has made it clear that “a share is not to be sold and that $1 billion will have to be added to the open market”

Black Rock has publicly expressed its strong intention to buy between $5 billion and $10 billion at the time of IPO, which goes beyond the market ' s ready supply

Although the ark investment (ARC) is subject to a 10 per cent hold cap on a single stock, it will selectively sell the old stock, but it plans to add SpaceX to other new open funds under the flag。

III. “Blonde Girls” in July: $7 billion tax events and the “reciprocal merger” assumption

Wall Street's sharp funding is linking all the clues. According to Alexandra, Mask faces a huge personal timetable:He had to exercise stock options under his 2018 Tesla pay scheme by 15 August this year, which would trigger a huge personal tax event (taxed in January 2028) amounting to $7 billion。

On August 15th, before and after the exercise of the power of officeThe higher the value of Tesla ' s shares, the better it would be for netting or pledge lending to Mask individuals。  is not a small sum of money, but a huge game of billions of dollars。

As a result, Wall Street's most reasonable current "Goldilocks senario" guessed:

• Timing: The power vacuum between 7 July, when NASDAQ was incorporated (SpaceX was more than double the price and the market value peaked) and the end of July when the ban (fresh stock influx) was lifted。
• Strategic Actions“Stock-for-Stock” announced by SpaceX and TeslaThe way it's goingReciprocal amalgamation (Merger of equations)。

Such a merger would enable the two companies to automatically enter a fully synchronized “lock step” driven by the market arbitrage fund. The tax pressure on Mask will be successfully addressed through a strategy by two companies to boost the market value by “no sellers” on the open market。

IV. “POLITICAL ARBITRAGE” BY THE WALL STREET INVESTMENTS: IPO FAT IN EXCHANGE FOR THE NOVEMBER ELECTION APPROVAL TICKETS

The biggest suspense for the consolidation of the script was the vote at the general meeting of shareholders last November。

According to Alexandra ' s exact calculation, Mask had approximately 17.5 per cent of voting rights in Tesla after exercising his options. An absolute majority of 50 per cent plus one votes for the All Circulation Unit is required through the merger programme, which means that MaskWe need 32.5% support outside. TicketsI don't know。

At present, the bulk shareholding ratio in Tesla has dropped from the past half to 31 per cent, and the agency Big Whales has undergone a crazy secret increase this quarter. For this to happen, it must be supported by big whales such as Vanguard and BlackRock, which together account for more than 15 per cent. Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, has now been patched up with Mask at the Davos Forum, etc., and the institutional ticket warehouse base (about 35 per cent) has been initially secured. The remaining 15 per cent gap requires mobilization of half of the 31 per cent of the bulk。

It's funnySpaceX introduced Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley and Morgan Chase as core distributors and distributors in this IPO。& nbsp; these three institutions were the leading “dead-to-back” in both the tesla pay case and the texas case:

Wall Street politics bet:  as the most profitable and prominent IPO quota in Wall Street's history, no single investment bank can resist these billions of dollars in commission and client honor。

Mask gave this piece of fat to these three agencies at this time, with the implied chips:With SpaceX's money, it was necessary to manipulate the shares of its trustees to vote in favour of the merger at the Tesla shareholders' conference in November。

Wall Street is profitable and they will not hesitate to choose compromise in the face of huge economic interests。

“A perfect defensive fortress”: Why must SpaceX buy Tesla

In response to technical questions from some investors, the interview provided an extremely deep-seated response to legal and corporate governance:

1. How do you complete the acquisition without hundreds of billions of cash on SpaceX

This is definitely not a cash transaction (Cash deal), but a 100 per cent net equity swap. SpaceX currently has a legally authorized maximum of 36 billion shares of issueable equity, and only about 13 billion shares have actually been issued since the time of the issuance of the IPO, with an extremely large volume of additional space that can be generated directly in exchange for all shares in Tesla。

Why can't Tesla buy SpaceX in reverse

Because SpaceX created a set of S-1 statementsThe perfect "The Founder's Defensive Fort"I don't know。

During Tesla, Mask suffered from malicious emptiness, aggressive investors (Activists) and judges from Delaware. From the bottom, SpaceX’s governance structure has been carefully guarded:

Super votes(a) SpaceX ' s class B shares (Class B) have 10 times the super votes and 97 per cent are firmly controlled by Mask himself

Judicial firewall(a) All shareholders ' actions must be subject to private arbitration and must not be prosecuted in open court, and the weapons of the malicious counsel are directly disabled

Succession clauseEVEN IF MASK HAD DIED UNFORTUNATELY, HIS SUPER-CONTROL OVER CATEGORY B SHARES WOULD HAVE BEEN TRANSFERRED DIRECTLY TO HIS FAMILY。

The current governance structure in Tesla is naturally flawed, and Mask has no absolute control. SoOnly by integrating Tesla as a whole into SpaceX ' s legal framework can Mask ' s absolute control over the entire commercial empire be protected once and for all from interference by radical investors and local courts。

BELOW IS THE FULL INTERVIEW, TRANSLATED BY AI

Herbert:

All right, welcome, thank you for joining us today. We invited Alexandra Mertz today, also known as Tesla Boomer Mama. I think today will be a very special programme, and she will share with you the most authoritative guide on SpaceX IPO. We will also share a few very important slides, and I would like to give you a preview now。

First, Alexandra did a lot of work, she sorted out every step you could expect if the merger was announced; then she would go on and on a step-by-step basis detailing what would happen on the day of the IPO, when the NASDAQ was incorporated, and when shareholders could be released from the sale. So thank you so much for the work, Alexandra. I know IPO this time just Friday, so a lot of people keep asking this question. Tell us, what are you going to share with us today

Alexandra:

Hi, Herbert, thanks for inviting me. Well, it all started — I mean, obviously for weeks and months, we have been exploring the idea of a merger. I'm a strong believer in this merger. I would like to state first that none of the next elements are financial recommendations。

But I personally bought a considerable increase in options for this August because I believe that. I'm not in Tesla -- yes, it's Tesla. I'm not in SpaceX's IPO, because in my projection, the merger will be announced sometime this July or early August。

Now SpaceX IPO's time actually gave me a lot of confidence, which is why I wanted to do this show. We discussed before why it was important for those who invested in SpaceX, those who stayed in Tesla and those who voted for both. Because I think there's a lot of key dates that you have to notice, because SpaceX's stock prices are likely to jump around, nobody knows what's going to happen, not even Elon. So, Herbert, which one do you want to start with

Herbert:

Yeah, this looks like the most important one. First of all, thank you, Aurelius. He made this up, right

Alexandra:

Exactly. Aurelius read my article on SpaceX IPO details, which is on my X (former Twitter) personal data, where you can look, and you can see his comments below, and he says, "I have entered all your data into Grok."

And Grock gave me this chart, which is very interesting. You might want to raise it a little, so that you can see. But, um, maybe they don't need to see us anymore, I don't know. Move a little more to the left, if you can -- I can't handle that. Well, it all started with the IPO on Friday, the brown spot, the IPO at 135, the upside-down brown square, right。

And then you see this blue line, which means that none of the early investors can sell it yet. As you can see, this continues until Q2 (second quarter) financial conference calls, where they will receive the first possible mass release of up to 30 per cent. That's the blue line. I'll give you more details about what's going to happen after that. The green line below is the demand for SpaceX shares by index funds。

This is the first wave of dilution in which they enter the market, relative to the volume of free circulation (Float), of 550 billion (note: this should refer to market share or equity conversion, as further clarified below), representing 4.3 per cent of the paper market value. This market value will change, you'll see, but that's how it starts。

So we have 555, which is 0.5 on the left axis. On the green axis -- sorry, on the green line, show what will happen to index funds. There are now many figures on CNBC and other channels on index funds, but they do not understand that these index funds must be purchased on the basis of free-flow adjustments (Float-adjusted). Since this free circulation is only 4.3 per cent, they will not buy as much as those who expected. They do buy a lot, don't be disappointed, but not those crazy numbers. I think between $8 billion and $18 billion, probably close to $15 billion。

It'll come in two waves: the first wave on the 5th trading day. We started in 12, but June 19 was actually June holiday, so the stock market closed. That means next Friday, so there's a big question mark, the first Vanguard CRSP and FTSE Russell Index Foundation buys it on Thursday, June 18, or postpone it to Monday, June 22. This one I haven't exactly answered. But anyway, it's the first leap of the green line。

And then 10 days later, it just happened to be the weekend of Independence Day on July 4, so it'll be after that weekend. This means that on July 7, the incorporation of the NASDAQ 100 index was officially launched. Well, throughout this period, as you can see, the early investors' blue line remained intact。

And then you see this red line, and that's Grock's reading what's actually going to happen with free circulation, because obviously the people who buy it now don't want to sell it right away. So you can see, on the day of NASDAQ's inclusion, the second step of the green line, the red line was at its lowest. What does that mean for stock prices? Grok predicted this brown line. Now you need to move up a little bit more, so that we can see -- it predicts a straight up. The stock price is actually on the right。

Did we lose your picture, Alexandra? Can't you hear me? Oh no, I'm in, my microphone is good. Alexandra, have we lost you

Alexandra:

Yeah, I'm in, my microphone works normally. Can you hear me

Herbert:

Okay, you're back. You're back. Thank you。

Alexandra:

Okay, sorry. So the brown line is the stock price, it's the gross forecast。If you're not satisfied with it, go complain to Grok, don't come at me, and don't go at Aurelius. But it predicts the highest stock price, and I think it's between 275 and 300 in this chart. That is more than double the distribution price of 135. Well, not exactly double, 135 is 270, and it's 275 to 300, so more than double。

Grok thinks it'll double sometime in July. July 4th? No, not July 4th, on the 15th trading day, July 7th, when the NASDAQ 100 index began to intervene. Okay, now we all have to be very, very careful. There will be options traders on the market who are as smart as I am, or even much smarter than me, and they'll expect all of this. But let's make an exception and pretend that the market is rational and honest, okay

So at that critical moment, as you can see from that red dotted line, real free circulation is at its lowest point, while stock price projections are at their highest。

YEAH, AND THEN ONE DAY, IT WAS THE Q2 FINANCIAL TELECONFERENCE。Grok predicts that stock prices may decline once the first wave of investors are released. So you saw the corner on the brown line. Let me make it clear that this will not fall vertically, and I actually believe that the stock price will remain high and then fall in a form similar to the cliff, rather than in the form of this slant opposite. But whatever, let's just look at the chart。

It is then clear that the whole question is how many early investors really leave. We've heard Black Rock wants to buy $5 billion to $10 billion。

You've seen no $5 billion to $10 billion in off-the-shelf stocks around, and if they start buying, it might push even higher. We also heard Ron Baron say, "I don't sell, I actually have to buy more." They have some, and he wants another $1 billion. Exactly. So he was one of the early investors who could have left, but didn't want to. And we've heard from ARC that, yes, they'll sell a little, because they're limited to a single stock of 10% of the warehouse ceiling, but they'll also have SpaceX in more funds, because since it's now a publicly traded fund, it's more open to their other funds。

So the most complicated part of the chart is how much the early investors will sell. So my first prediction is this one, which is my most realistic scenario, right? That's the data that Grok entered into the height of the blue line. You'll see two other scenes that will make it clearer. But as you can see, the moment the Q2 financial teleconference took place, the first step of the blue line, the stock price should have come down, because after two working days of the financial teleconference, they were released to sell stocks. We obviously do not know the exact date of the press conference. This will release them and enable them to sell. So we might see as much as 30% of that batch of fresh stock coming into the market。

Now, what's that stock? As you know, about 50 percent of the early investors were actually Elon. And Elon can't sell in 366 days. So when you hear about 20 to 30 percent, it's not the whole 20 to 30 percent, it's actually only 10 to 15 percent, because the other half -- that's the half of Elon can't sell. Okay, then I made the assumption that only part of it would sell。

Alexandra:

MY ASSUMPTION IS, BEFORE THE Q2 TELECONFERENCE, THERE'S AN EVENT IN WHICH ELON HAD TO EXERCISE HIS STOCK OPTIONS IN HIS 2018 TESLA PAY SCHEME. IT'S A $7 BILLION EVENT. SO DON'T BE STRESSED, BUT IT'LL TRIGGER A TAX EVENT IN JANUARY 2028。

For all this, the higher the Tesla share price on or before August 15, the more favourable it would be for him, for his netting (Nets) or pledge (Pledges) etc., the events of August 15 and the tax events of January 2028. Because he could do it any day before August 15. It's not small money. It's big money, okay

So we have an event at the latest on August 15, when the stock price should be the highest; we have an event in the second half of July, where early investors can leave; we have a peak on July 7, when the NASDAQ 100 index begins to work. Okay. You still got me? I know it's totally crazy。

Herbert:

So your guess is, he'll be here, or sell his options at some high point

Alexandra:

Exactly. So my ideal scene -- Goldilocks -- what do I know? Don't trust me. It's not a financial proposition。But I'd like to share it with you, and I think so: between the 7th of July, when NASDAQ was incorporated and the financial teleconference (when these people could leave the room), they would announce the merger of Merger of equals, and Tesla would be added to the market value of SpaceX, because that was the highest point in the whole scene。

Okay. So, as you know, I just bought these August options because I believe that very firmly. Again, I don't know anything. It's just that I'm trying to tie all these clues together, and I may have gone the wrong way。

But it really looks like it's been carefully designed and thought out. I mean, they met with the NASDAQ Committee, the FTSE Committee, the CRSP Committee, S& the P (POP) Committee (although the logo was not working, but it was not working), and they changed the index rules. The dates for the periodic termination of these locks were precisely structured into some way, and financial teleconferences were then included。

I mean, you have a certain date, which is normal, and you want to stagger them a little bit from the index so that the index can be effective. Qualifying, that makes sense. But why link the two major shares that early investors could leave with financial teleconferences? This is crazy。

I've never seen anything like it. Usually the locks are very simple: 180 days, and then they can leave. It's really someone who's been thinking very deeply. So my question is, why do they think that? Well, because they want SpaceX to raise prices. Why do they want SpaceX to increase prices? That's my clue。

Herbert:

LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION. SO NOW YOU'VE EXPLAINED THAT THERE WAS NO SALE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND JULY 4TH. SORRY, IT WAS Q2. WHEN WAS THE PAPER CONFERENCE? Q2, WHEN'S THE PRESS CONFERENCE? I DON'T KNOW, ARE WE TALKING JULY 22ND OR 28TH

Alexandra:

Well, maybe July 22nd, 29th, those two days were Wednesdays。

Herbert:

Yes, Wednesday is traditionally the day of Tesla's financial conference. Are they going to hold a paper conference on SpaceX? Because there's never been a paper conference on SpaceX, right? Because it's a private company. Your theory is that at that press conference -- because a few days after the press conference, 30% of the people would be released -- that day, Elon might announce that SpaceX was planning to buy Tesla

Alexandra: SO I ACTUALLY HAVE TWO THEORIES: ONE IS THAT THEY DO IT IN THE MORNING OF MONDAY, WHICH IS VERY TRADITIONAL FOR THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE MERGER. MY SECOND THEORY IS THAT BECAUSE IT'S SO MUCH IN LINE WITH ELON'S STYLE, I WANT TO LAUGH BEFORE I SAY IT -- THAT HE'S CALLING A FINANCIAL CONFERENCE, AND EVERYTHING'S SERIOUS, YOU KNOW, ABOUT HOW MANY LAUNCHES, HOW MANY CONTRACTS, HOW MANY AI CLIENTS, HOW MANY OF THOSE AREAND IN THE END, HE SAID, "OH, AND ONE MORE THING, WE JUST SUBMITTED A S-8 FILE TO THE SEC, AND YOU CAN GO AND SEE IT." I MEAN, THAT'S GONNA MAKE YOU LAUGH, RIGHT? IF HE DOES, I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN BREATHE。

And by the way, someone said, "Oh, you bought options, and Tesla fell 5%." I bought my options at 385. Nice, good work, perfect timing. All right。

So, wow. This chart doesn't include this potential acquisition. This is simply a straightforward analysis of when a shareholder's ban occurs and when the index is included. These are the two and three that are now at the beginning, because we know that the markers may not work, at least until September of this year or January, June next year。

Alexandra:

Let me clarify. All three -- FTSE, CRSP and NASDAQ -- complete their movements between June and early July. This will not reach the full market value of SpaceX. You know, all these indices are ultimately market value weights (Market-cap weighted), but because there is not enough free circulation, they can only rebalancing in the next quarter to see where the market value will be. That is why we have these interlocking moments, with new free circulation units coming in。

SO, IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER, THE INCLUSION OF NASDAQ, FTSE AND CRSP WILL BE REPEATED. WE'LL KNOW THOSE DATES IN EARLY SEPTEMBER AND EARLY DECEMBER, AND I'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED. THEY MAY ACTUALLY BE LARGER THAN THEY WERE THE FIRST TIME, DEPENDING ENTIRELY ON THE AMOUNT OF FREE CIRCULATION NOW。

As for the pamphlet, the pamphlet had considered not to do 12 months of integration, but 6 months of incorporation, but ultimately they did not pass. And I didn't even put this in this chart. They did include a small portion of their overall market index, but not the standard 500, 400, 600, which was another basket of old rules. But in the other basket, they're in the process of being integrated, so there's a need for some markers, and I just don't know the dates yet, but they're early。

And then for the inclusion of the top 500, I mean, one day it'll have to go into the top 500, and it'll be one of the top 10 companies。

There are two scenarios: if they merge, at the moment of the formal handing-out — by the way, thank all those who corrected me, you're right, I'm learning. So this date really means the completion of the delivery, which means that the regulatory body has finished its review, and we voted in favour of each and every one of them, with all the green lights on and then the date of delivery. That will be the day when Tesla stock code disappears in 500 and SpaceX stock code takes its place, or whatever the new entity's name is。

That would be a huge buy-in date, because now suddenly the two market values would be combined. All these PPI funds have only Tesla ' s share of their funds, and now they have to buy SpaceX ' s share. So that could be bigger than the 2020 events. We just don't know the time. So it either happened at the moment of the merger, or we went back to the headaches with the papi -- that is, when the pappy thought that SpaceX was profitable enough for enough seasons, and ended all their little calculations, meetings, and so on, and eventually put it in. So that could be from mid-2027 to the end of the year. However, if the merger occurs, it takes precedence over everything。

Herbert:

You said this could happen in January, February, March 2027

Alexandra:

The best scenario actually is 2027 Q1, my most realistic projection is Q2. In the first chart that you showed me, I wrote down all the regulatory bodies that had to approve the matter, yes. So there's an article, this chart at the top, which explains how the merger will work. Article 6 of these are HSR, SEC and Ministry of Defence, which must be reviewed. Well, you know, Firewall -- did Tesla China isolate enough firewalls from SpaceX's government contract and everything else? So this is gonna be a little headache. We don't know how much time it takes. But the transaction closes, the transaction closes, the transaction closes in the first half of 2027. I have great confidence and hope in the first three months, and it is very possible in the fourth to the sixth months. Yeah。

Herbert:

Okay, I see your logic. So in July, you're confident that they'll announce Tesla's acquisition at approximately the end of July at the SpaceX financial call conference, probably by early August. Tesla's vote could happen in November, about sometime in the fall. And then it might close in the first quarter of next year. Once you do that, they'll be included in the standard 500 anyway. So when you look at this table here, you know, stocks could fall, because who knows what's gonna hold it, because all of this is going to happen。

Alexandra:

All right, all right, but by then we'll have Roadster, we'll have RoboTaxi。

Herbert:

Yes, let's be clear. And that's why you can't think of it as a stone. It's just the words that Grok says on the basis of the ban and the purchase. But the reality is that if they announce their acquisition in July, the milestone event in Tesla will help boost SpaceX stocks, and vice versa. So you're saying that RoboTaxi actually went out in August, and in September you saw the Roadster announcement, and you saw these things, and maybe stocks didn't fall that much. Is that what you're saying

Alexandra:

Exactly. So there are many hypotheses here: one is how much the early investors will leave; but then there is the announcement of the merger, which is not at all on this chart. If this is the case, the two stocks will move in a consistent fashion (Walk in lock step). Which means if SpaceX had a good news today that went up 1%, Tesla would go up 1%. There are arbitrage funds in the market, and they do nothing else, and they specialize in this arbitrage。

So what's their arbitrage theory? If regulators and Tesla shareholders were so likely to approve the matter that they began to establish the idea that it would succeed, it would be a perfect synchronized pace. If they give an 80% probability, there will be some room for volatility between them, but there will still be a lot of synchronization. So, actually, yes, my theory is that one of the good news will pull the other, yes。

Herbert:

Yes, the possibility of approval by a general meeting of shareholders — the approval of a general meeting of shareholders in Tesla — is really crucial. We've done a big show last week about what the actual terms are. So, depending on the terms of the deal, then we'll know what the chances are for Tesla shareholders to approve this in November. You mean if SpaceX shares are at a market value of $3 trillion, SpaceX's market value is $3 trillion, and Tesla's stocks will rise to $3 trillion, because this could be a reciprocal merger. Or, as Joe put it, it may actually be that they would buy Tesla at a higher price than SpaceX, which is crazy, but it may be just to provide a premium to convince Tesla shareholders to vote in favour of it。

Alexandra:

All right. Then why don't you lead us to all the other things we know about SpaceX IPO? You sorted out all the key indicators。

Alexandra:

Give me a second, give me a second. I made two more, I think, three charts, and I just want to show quickly the impact of free circulation. All right, let's go over this all over again。

Okay, you can still see brown for stock, and this is still the same scene, not a merger, nothing, just, you know, SpaceX stocks. In this scenario, it stays above 275 and rises all the way, as no early investors leave the field. It's not realistic, or just a small share. People would sell, they would not sell all the hold-ups, they would sell a small portion to earn enough money because the increase was too significant. For example, you're a welder, and now you're a millionaire, and you're not going to sell all the shares in exchange for your millions, and you're going to sell enough shares and say, "Hey, I have hundreds of thousands of dollars in hand, and then I'm going to keep the rest of the stocks and keep it growing, because I'm sure it's going to go up."

Herbert:

Yeah. And you know, a lot of these people would think, "I want my initial investment back," so they sell the same amount as the initial investment of the year, but that's only a fraction of the assets they now own。

Alexandra:

EXACTLY. SO IT IS NOT COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC, BUT IT IS CLEARLY UNREALISTIC. SOME PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SELL, I KNOW ARC IS GOING TO SELL, AND THEY SAID PUBLICLY, BECAUSE OF THEIR REGULATIONS, THEY HAVE TO SELL。

And then the next chart says, "What if everyone sells all the shares except Elon?" Okay。

Herbert:

If everyone sells -- if everyone sells all the stocks, that's half, sorry, everyone sells half。

Alexandra:

So you got the same peak, over 275, and then you walked a little lower. The baseline scenario for drawing the first chart is slightly more than half, right? So this is a little more conservative than me. All these charts are publicly available, so you can study them。

Incoming scene three, please release, Herbert. That's where everyone sells all the stocks. This is as unrealistic as another scenario. But you'll see, even in this scenario, stock prices didn't break IPO prices. All right. Now, can I guarantee it never breaks? I have no idea. But these interlocking index purchases (the green line below) do provide a beautiful floor (Floor) for each intervention. Okay。

Once again, it is carefully designed. This blue line is completely designed. They don't give random dates, they try to do something here. You know, this ladder is thought through. Why? I know something, but it makes sense when you start drawing it。

Herbert:

Yeah, the only thing I want to say is that this visual image we're seeing here is just until the end of 2026, maybe the first part of January. SpaceX's real volatility -- I just talked to Joe Bacti about this -- and some people said it was 2027. When you have all the commitments to SpaceX, you see the milestones of Starlink, but then you can't really show the AI data centre as a real substantive income, and the potential space-based AI data centre may be in the second half of 2027, if you're lucky. So from then on, it was still a story unit at that point. Traditionally, some people might, you know, like Tesla -- you promised me all kinds of moon landings, literally, but, you know, people would get bored and they were waiting for real income to come. That could have happened at that time。

Alexandra:

Sure, sure. I mean, it's a very high-risk stock, like Tesla used to be and still is. You're not investing in Alphabet, or to some extent not even Nvidia, a stock with higher Beta values. But you're saying that if all the stockholders in the first year, with the exception of Elon, sell 100%, Grok estimates it'll fall to about 150, right. It still hasn't broken IPO prices, that's all. That is exactly what it means, and I think it is very interesting. So let's read the article. Yeah, I'm sorry. I interrupted you. What's this

Oh, so it's three curves with a financial teleconference. Those are pink. That's when they can sell the largest share, so it always happens two working days after the financial conference. And that's where the stock price turns around. This is a very important message for all shareholders: you must know when the release took place, and the major release took place during the press conference. We do not yet know when they are, but you have given us a guide as to when we expect them to take place. I think it'll be July 22nd。

Herbert:

Look, you're more precise than I am. I just got back from the holidays, and the day after my leave, we'll have a live broadcast the next morning. I'll be asleep. We'll do it the last time, right? You remember the last time you came back, we pulled you right in. My forecast is July 22nd, Wednesday. Okay, but we'll see。

all right, so you've got all the key indicators on future expectations. by the way, i think  SPCX  is the stock code. When they did merge with Tesla, we were already saying that if they did merge with Tesla, it was 100 percent certain. Your guess is that SPCX will disappear, TSLA will disappear, and it will be  Xit's your guess, right? then it's still available。

Alexandra:

You know, I'm sweating about this because I can't be called X Boomer Mama, I mean, it's not like me. I don't want to put myself in an X。

Herbert:

I've been called Tesla Herbert for years, and when I changed to Herbert, people hated it. So you should just -- do you want to call yourself ex Herbert? I mean, come on, it's so sexy. Why not? Why not just call Boomer Mama? You can do that。

Alexandra:

Yeah, I think I'll try that. Yeah, just use Boomer. You better sign it down now. Okay, so what;SPCX  the price is 135, which is already nailed. That has been announced. The market value of $175 trillion is the market value of $550 million in the issuance of the new Class A (A-type unit). I mean that number, right? I mean, there'll never be a boring number at Elon's, there's always something. Yes, what is this

Herbert:

Oh, if they decide to do that, they can actually raise it. So most likely, they won't just stay at $7.5 billion, and they'll go to $8.6 billion。

Alexandra:

That's right. That's right. They've got 30 days to do this, which will obviously add to my free circulation scenario. So it's not..

Herbert:

SO IF THEY THINK THAT MORE PEOPLE WANT TO KEEP BUYING, IT'LL GO FROM 7.5 BILLION TO 86.6 BILLION. SORRY. BECAUSE IT'S NOW ESTIMATED THAT BY THE TIME IPO WAS ON FRIDAY, THE SUBSCRIPTIONS WERE ALREADY TWICE AS HIGH. IN OTHER WORDS, THERE ARE TWICE AS MANY PEOPLE WHO WANT TO BUY THIS $7.5 BILLION STOCK, AS THEY SAY. SO IF THEY SEE THAT INTEREST STILL EXISTS, THEY WILL ISSUE MORE SHARES. IT WON'T LOWER THE PRICE BECAUSE YOU HAVE BUYERS THERE, ALTHOUGH THE SUPPLY HAS INCREASED. SORRY. AND THEN IT COULD BE UP TO $8.6 BILLION IN DISTRIBUTION. THIS DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE MY PICTURE ON THE CHART, AND WE DID REHEARSE IT. I DON'T WANT TO -- YOU KNOW, NO ONE KNOWS IF THIS WHOLE GREEN SHOE PROGRAM WILL BE IMPLEMENTED. VERY LIKELY, YOU KNOW, ELON TOLD THEM NOT TO DO IT, WHATEVER。

But I made a scene here, a little table. Now, first of all, those things that don't change: Class C is still all zero. These are non-voting shares that may be issued to employees or used when they acquire smaller companies and do not wish to give them the right to vote. So this is Class C, which is now ready for further acquisitions. Class B (B) 97% is Elon. So none of this will change. Class A, right? One-to-one voting shares, not the others. So before IPO, it was 6.8 billion shares. If it is the smallest, or 550 million, it will rise to 73.80 billion. If they run a complete green shoe program, yes, green shoes, it could rise to nearly 7.5 billion. It's insignificant, not huge, not much. Okay, that's 11 million more shares. Yeah, go ahead. Mmm。

So I think the figures to remember are — because if my theory of reciprocal consolidation is correct, you will see at some point — understanding the market value of each company will be very important. Market value is the calculation of the number of current shares. So remember, SpaceX is about 13 billion shares, and that's when Tesla's shares -- because of this option, Tesla would be about 4 billion. On one side is 13 billion, on the other is 4 billion, and if they walk in a consistent fashion, it will be proportional。

OKAY, KEY DATE: SO THURSDAY EVENING, ONCE THE MARKET CLOSES, THEY WILL CONFIRM THE FINAL PRICE. I DON'T EXPECT ANY NUMBERS OTHER THAN 135. THEY WILL DECIDE WHETHER THE ALLOCATION IS 555 MILLION OR WHETHER THEY MAY HAVE STARTED THE GREEN SHOES PROGRAMME, AND THEY WILL ANNOUNCE ALL OF THIS WHEN THE MARKET CLOSES. SO THERE'LL BE AN SEC ANNOUNCEMENT。

Alexandra:

Is that true? I heard that one of the unique requests made by Elon for this particular IPO was that the allocation was made by SpaceX, not by bankers. So some people -- he's been yelling, that's for sure. Yes, he is telling the banker that, for example, first, every retailer should have at least one share if he applied. If you ask, you'll get at least one or two shares, not the big shareholders. If you have a huge amount of money, you don't necessarily get more than everyone else, trying to do that -- we've heard it from Schwab, we've heard it from Fidelity, remember that Fuda initially asked for $500,000 in other accounts (thresholds), and now it's down to $2,000. So there's been a lot of yelling, and I think he really made it clear that he wanted the retailer to get the privilege-- - I mean privileges, meaning that everyone is treated equally in this world。

Alexandra:

And that's what this order does. Does this mean that bankers will implement it? I express my doubts, especially those abroad. I mean, they usually look up to themselves and do whatever they want. So, I mean, I want everyone who wants shares to get them, but I doubt it. Now, especially Schwab, I don't trust it. So Schwab still has a high limit, I think, $100,000. But they pretend to prefer smaller accounts to larger ones. Let's see now. I mean, with Schwab, my point is that I restrain and then trust them, and I just don't like it. All right。

Okay, then the first trading day is June 12th, Friday. It starts in the morning, right? It starts at 9:30 in Eastern time, at 6:30 in Pacific time. There's no time lag, I expect Elon to go ring the bell. And when did the bell ring? Well, at 6:30, when the drive started. Well, 6:30, I was just wondering if I should do a live broadcast, and you said you were busy that day, right? Well, I mean, at 6:30 I can be there, and then I'm gonna have a conference with ARC, and then I'm gonna go to Bloomberg, and now it looks like I'm gonna go to BBC, and then I have a client. So it'll be a busy day, but 6:30 will be a busy day for you。

Okay, we'll see what I'll do at 6:30 in the morning. But, gosh, watching Elon ring the bell, it's pretty cool. It's not the first time he did it, he did it in 2010. Yeah. Okay。

What's this? So I doubt that the options deal, SpaceX's options, and someone on the market pretends they're ready for use on Friday. So I went into a mad state of research with my friend Grok. I looked at other large IPOs, I mean, there's never been an IPO on the market this big. I do understand that options traders want to earn their money, but I also understand that options traders want to protect their money, and if this price goes up, you don't want many options on the market to be exposed. So I think the best expectation is that we will not have trading options until Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Now, what do I know, maybe there's some crazy people in the market who want to start pricing options on Friday, and I doubt that, as you please。

Okay, then you actually wrote down the real date here, thanks. Because that -- yeah, that's the data from the article that's at the top again, and there's a chart of Aurelius under that article. Those are numbers, those are explanations of when they arrived. Again, CRSP and FTSE may be Thursday, June 18, or Monday, June 22, just because of the holiday of June 19. And then NASDAQ came on vacation on July 4th, so that would be July 7th。

Then again, attention should be paid to the rebalancing. These indicators will keep us very busy in the next six months. And then I gave, you know, how much they actually manage. CRSP is the biggest one, they're Vanguard. Now you must also know that Vanguard was an early investor in SpaceX, and they already have a lot. So at some point, when I didn't know the locking time, I thought, well, maybe Vanguard could sell their fund so they wouldn't have to buy it on the open market, but they couldn't, right? We've just learned that they can't sell before the press conference. So actually CRSP has to buy them on the market。

FTSE Russell, then, is based in London. There are many of them, but that's a bigger index, so SpaceX will have a smaller weight in it. We can see numbers on the next slide in a second。

Herbert:

Yeah, I'm surprised FTSE was actually the bigger one. NASDAQ wasn't actually that small -- that big. A quick talk before we move on, because I forgot to ask you that question. I was told that if you buy at IPO price, if you're a retailer, you buy SpaceX at IPO price, there's 60 days limit before you can sell, you -- so this

Alexandra:

No, no. Fuda imposed a two-week limit because I think they were asked to. Again, why? To protect free circulation, right? They're always in the same scene. But they can't really ban it. They're trying to say, "Don't sell it in the first two weeks, or we'll never serve you IPO again." But there must be some people who don't want the next IPO, but still do it, just because they want to make money, right? So Fuda is the only one I have heard with a firm hold on to the two-week proposal with consequences. Now those consequences, I mean, I wonder if it can — what they intend to do — no, I mean retail. Yes, I'm talking about retail. Fuda is the only broker you've heard of some kind of restriction. Okay. Now I have just seen comments that say the same thing about E-Trade. I don't know the E-Trade terms, but two weeks, I don't know. It said Fuda was 15 days, so maybe 15 trading days, which would just last until July 7. Oh, my God, I mean, everything came to an orgasm on July 7th. So I have a feeling that they try to tell people they can't sell, but can they enforce it? I doubt it very much。

NOW, ONCE AGAIN, AGAIN, I DON'T BELIEVE THAT A RETAILER WHO WANTS TO MAKE A QUICK PROFIT WILL BE PREVENTED FROM SELLING HIS STOCK, RIGHT? IF YOU'RE BANNED FROM PARTICIPATING IN THE FUTURE IPO, MAYBE YOU WANT TO TAKE THAT RISK, I DON'T KNOW. BUT ANYWAY, I MEAN, IN MY OPINION, IF YOU GET THIS THING IN 135, HOLD IT, RIGHT? DON'T BE — IT DEPENDS ON EVERYONE HAVING DIFFERENT VIEWS。

Okay, let's keep looking at the index. Yeah, I'm not sure we need to go over this whole thing, because the first chart shows it all. If anyone wants to know all these details, it's in the top article. It shows the scale of passive purchases necessary. Depending on the market value trend, it has different scenarios. So if someone's as sensitive to numbers as I am, they'll get huge pleasures from all of this。

Herbert:

You can live on this. This is all different, different scenes. The greatest gain was it, the moment of liberation. All right. The moment of release is if you're an investor in SpaceX, you want to focus on it, but if you're an investor in Tesla, you also need to focus on it, because before that, I think it will happen. Yeah, thanks for cleaning it up. So if you're going to invest SpaceX, you should go to Alexandra's X account and she put this on top. I have just passed it quickly, but it contains many details, including precise dates and approximate figures, about when the ban was lifted and when you were added to it — on 9 December — all remaining shares eligible for early release were released at that point, with the exception of Elon。

Alexandra:

Exactly. You know, the discussions with the pamphlet, which did not pass, were originally included for the pamphlet on December 9. Can you believe it

Herbert:

Oh, it was supposed to be precisely timed, and it would have happened on December 9, and then it would have been when all the stocks had been sold. So it's a perfect set of timings, like one -- that's why things always make sense. I mean, who sat down and planned this? This is crazy smart. Smart, smart, smart people。

But Cern made a number of recommendations. And he said, "Well, the Blanche came out a few days ago and said, "We're not going to change our rules, and it's still 12 months," which means that next time you can put SpaceX in the Blanche 500 is next June. Cern came out and said, "You know, they're fine today, but until then, they're actually going to be forced to change and change our rules. Because everyone would buy SpaceX on other indices, and they would start losing money, and they would say, "We better get them in." I agree, especially now, with Anthropic and OpenAI. I mean, honestly, can you imagine? Because you know these aren't the last companies to go to IPO. You can imagine that the biggest index doesn't mean -- I mean, it's one thing, these three companies represent space。

Alexandra:

Exactly, exactly. And the sign sometimes talks about the sign 1,500 in their communication, so people come to me and say, "Yes, that's not the hold of the sign 500." The sign 1500 regroups three indices: the standard 500 (the largest 500), then the standard 400 (the next 400), then the standard 600. And what a normal IPO does is a small company goes into the standard 600, then it grows, grows, grows, then it moves into 400, then it grows, grows, then it moves into 500. Now we have these Mega caps, which, once IPO, are directly 1 trillion, or maybe 2 trillion, or maybe 3 trillion。

So it was never designed for that. The markers are designed for companies that, after all the remaining processes, slowly grow into top 500. SpaceX will never appear in 600 or 400 and it will go straight into the top 10. So you can't ignore these giant giants just because you have some rules written on rocks and you don't like Elon. You know, the market would demand it, or it would say, "You know what I mean, you know I can live on NASDAQ 100, because NASDAQ 100 is actually more technology-oriented and has all of these OpenAI, Anthropic and all of them." They would move their money out of the standard 500, and the billboard would be forced to say -- that sounds exactly like a reoccurrence of Delaware. They made a strategic comment about how powerful they were, and then a few months later they realized, "Damn, we're hurting ourselves forever." Because we didn't -- imagine that OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX were not on your index. It's the most valuable company everybody wants, right? Wow. I mean, even the U.S. government is now..

Herbert:

Exactly. But the pamphlet, forgive me, won't touch it because it could be volatile, right? So, although they announced this, they might be included, and then it might be timed, who knows. And it could be -- can you, can you just answer that, because a lot of people say that Elon was evil, that he forced these indices into SpaceX, and they changed all the rules. It's not like that, is it

Alexandra:

So let me look at it from another angle. Suppose we're in a classic scene, and no indexed foundation includes anything in six months, and that's a regular collision with the traditional lock for six months, right? It's gonna be a huge suspense, you know, you'll put all of NASDAQ, FTSE, CRSP, at the same time, on the mid-December date. And then the early investors can leave on their first day, right? So instead of that, I think their idea is, let's spread it over a period of time. That would stabilize it, and it had stabilized for weeks。

Now, have they thought of merging the bulletins? I think there is. Do I know anything exactly? I don't know. But if you want a consolidated announcement as soon as possible (I do believe in their intentions), this staggered and this index is the smartest thing to do to support stock prices. Because at the same time, I do believe that there is much good news coming. It just starts with Anthropic and Google on SpaceX. We know there's all that good news in Tesla's pipeline. So I just had the feeling that it would actually eliminate volatility and raise the price of both。

Herbert:

So your theory that the announcement will take place at the end of July is that you're alone, because it's too early for almost everyone. But your -- that's because of this chart, where you can see that SpaceX has the highest possible price -- is actually at the end of July. It makes sense to do that at that time, in contrast to that, you know -- these bans happen, and then stocks can fluctuate. So you're not only buying three indices at the same time, but with the lowest available stock, the stock pops up, and that's when you're most likely going to announce Tesla's acquisition。

Alexandra:

Exactly. Now I have one or two questions. I saw some people in the commentary saying, "How can they buy Tesla if SpaceX doesn't have cash?" This is not a cash transaction, it is a stock exchange for stock. That's why they have a limit of 36 billion shares of authorized stock. Now, as I showed, after IPO, they'll be in 13 billion shares, and then we'll see if there's another 13 billion for Tesla。

Herbert:

Are there any other comments? You know, this is the most authoritative guide to expectations for the future. And I think that every stockholder in SpaceX, big whale, small family should pay attention to this. And, you know, like this is done by Grok, so we don't know the stock price, but, of course, it's pretty well carved on the stone, and indexed on the stone. And then you can focus on the percentage that's going to be released, and you can, you know, guess from there what happens to the stock. But those are -- I want to answer Luke Jer's question: Why can't Tesla buy SpaceX

Alexandra:

All right, because SpaceX's S-1 caller's instructions were designed to protect Elon to the maximum extent possible. So he had 10 times the voting share (B share) and the action had to be arbitrated. And what I'm saying is, there are a lot of provisions, including some that I think are a little too much, like, if he dies, his Class B shares will pass to his family. That's not very much in my heart, but in any case, the whole structure of SpaceX is designed to be the ideal state for everything that has never been ideal within Tesla. So keeping Tesla's structure is meaningless. The central idea was to give this control to Elon and to protect him from any aggressive rights investor (Actics) and anything else, which would happen within SpaceX。

Herbert:

Yes, I think we've said that several times, most of the MAG 7 companies are controlled by the founders, who have super votes. So let SpaceX do it, it's not -- it's not evil, it's just normal. In fact, Tesla is the alien. Elon could even agree to make Tesla a company without giving him super-voting shares, and you could--

Alexandra:

It's like this guy is really taking his heart with him. But, of course, it makes him suffer in litigation and all that. Okay。

Herbert:

So there's no doubt that SpaceX will buy Tesla, but is there a possibility that SpaceX will buy Tesla at double the price of SpaceX? It's a possibility, right? It does not have to be a reciprocal merger. Not necessarily today. Today's Tesla's market value is 1.5 trillion, right? Tesla. If I'm right, if Grok is right on his chart, SpaceX's market value could reach 3.5 trillion at some point. Okay, let's say it's $3 trillion。

Alexandra:

All right, say 3 trillion, and you'll have one pair of yours。

Herbert:

Because now Tesla's share price has risen to the same level。

Alexandra:

No, no. So they'll buy if -- if SpaceX is 3 trillion, and Tesla is still 1.5 trillion at the end of July. This -- I honestly said my head couldn't turn around because it was like we were gonna be IPO in a few days and SpaceX was moving forward. How could you go on vacation? I can't, I don't know. I'm going, I'm going, I'm going on vacation in July。

Herbert:

Next month is the time of the potential takeover. So when they do, let's say it's SpaceX in 3 trillion, and then Tesla in 1.3, 1.5 trillion, and SpaceX will say, "I'll buy Tesla in equivalent 3 trillion dollars." And then you think that your guess is that Tesla stock would go from 1.5 trillion to $3 trillion right away, or would it go up like this? However, this is not a question of the number of equities, which, in a reciprocal merger, are on both sides the same number and the value of the stocks will double。

Alexandra:

So if now, if they announce it in July, I'll buy it on July 8 in a reciprocal combination, by November when they vote for it, the Tesla shareholders will have one -- you know, they'll want to go back under $400

Herbert:

So you're saying, as long as Tesla doubles, that's very -- that's one, that's a good premium, that's an excellent premium. Moreover, it is a premium paid by the non-sellers on the market. I see. Because at that point, it'll be a real merger, it'll be double Tesla stocks, and that's your guess. And that's why you buy -- again, it's you, because you don't usually do it, but you're just here to be transparent to everyone. I don't have-- you're transparent to everyone here. You've bought it, because last time you bought the options, you suffered, you lost it — I did bad, I did bad. You lost money. So don't trust, don't trust Alexandra. Okay, no financial advice, but I want transparency. I want to tell people what I'm doing because I don't want them to think that I have any, you know, hidden motives to say these things. No, I'm putting the money I believe in there. So you buy options, guess Tesla stocks will bounce up in August, correct。

And you, but you didn't buy SpaceX because you believed Tesla stock would double. There's no need to do that。

Alexandra:

THAT'S RIGHT. SO WHAT I DID WAS I SHUT DOWN THE SMALL PART OF THE HOLD THAT I HAD IN GUTS, AND REMEMBER I DID THIS, AND IT WAS A PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY THAT WAS SPECIAL -- YES, AFTER THE GLP-1. SO I STILL BELIEVE IN THE WHOLE CONCEPT, BUT I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY, I DON'T SEE ANY ROOM FOR DOING BUSINESS, USING THAT MONEY TO REVERSE IT BACK TO MORE AND MORE TESLA. EVERYTHING'S IN TESLARI NOW, 100%。

Okay, including now, actually, it's over 100 percent, because now I have these, these options. And for me to buy SpaceX's IPO, besides, you know, writing down a record of history, it would mean selling some Tesla. Because I'm 100% committed, I don't have liquidity in any of the notes anymore. Every time the stock fell, I bought it as much as I could. So that's it. And that means there's a tax event in a particular account, and I'm not going to do it. And then, once I think of that, I think that, even in non-tax accounts, no, I believe that, and I think it is actually wiser to play this now through consolidation。

Now there are several obstacles to consolidation, which may never be announced, and I still believe it will, but who knows. Second, it may not be able to vote through shareholders, right? It is clear that shareholder voting depends on the retail side, but there are very, very many frustrated retail investors. Can you -- can you share that, because I think it's important for the audience to understand that. In the past, Tesla's retail bulk had more than 50 percent of the voting rights. So, you know, you did a heroic job trying to make every retailer realize that there was a vote to vote. And it helped, because, you know, we were fighting for Elon's pay programme and moving all to Texas was the most important thing. All of this has happened and thanks you for your work to that end。

Today, I've been reporting for the past week that big whales, institutional investors are buying Tesla stocks this year. And by the way, it's very interesting that it's linked to 31 percent -- retail bulk now only has 31 percent. Finish this, so in order for the November vote to actually win in favor of SpaceX, buy Tesla, you need to win the whale. So you believe -- you count them in, and you tell me: Vanguard, Ark Invest, Ron Baron, all of them together。

And I think it's from your side: Why did SpaceX choose to join this war? - Including Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan? These three were real bastards -- what's the word? You're right, they're the biggest bastards. For Tesla, they voted against these things. Why would Elon allow them? Maybe SpaceX says, "Look, you do this, you better vote as we wish. And you're going to vote for us now in our interest?" And then they can't cut off the billions they're going to make on this IPO, and they're going to say, "Of course." So that's why they got them in. That's -- would you like to say that's what happened

Alexandra:

Yeah, that's my theory. I mean, can we possibly know? Probably not. But, I mean, I work on Wall Street, they're profit-driven, they sell their children if they have to, right? And it's an honor to be one of the sellers of SpaceX or one of the distributors of SpaceX IPO stocks. It's equally lucrative, it's both honor and honor and honor and money, absolutely right. And, so, um, they want the retail side to be angry at them again? I mean, how many times have we proved, and now we know you, Schwab, Schwab, right? We — when that happened — moved a lot of money, Tesla's money out of Schwab to their compromise, and they said, “Sorry, we will vote.”

Yeah, yeah. You know, I'm still waiting for August 31st. Because since last year's vote was in the second half of the year, they were only included in the SEC file on August 31st. So on August 31st we'll know exactly how they voted last year. I mean, they said they voted for it, right? We will, but we will see on Schwab. For Schwab, I'm very, whatever. But we'll make sure between August and, if there's this vote in November, everyone knows what Schwab is doing, whether or not they keep their promises. All right。

But anyway, you're getting to the point, and you can explain that, as you think, if Tesla shareholders are to vote in favour of an acquisition, you will need to convince the whale first, and then, of course, we still need to mobilize the retail bulk, but at this point, what really matters is the whale。

Let me settle this. So now Elon owns 20 percent, but, as I told you, there's options and his limited shares. You need to reach 50% of all shares plus 1 vote in favour. And all shares will be 4 billion shares, so we need to reach 2 billion shares, okay. And Elon would be at a level of over 700 million shares, so it would actually be 17.5 per cent. So the figure to remember is 17.5 per cent of Elon, so we still need 32.5 per cent. I mean, ARC wasn't that big, Baron was sweet, but not that big. Big whales are Vanguard and Black Rock。

Now, Vanguard is not only in Teslari, but also a BlackRock early investment -- an early investor in SpaceX. BlackRock didn't before, but has publicly indicated that they want $5 billion to $10 billion by IPO. So they will be in both. So I do believe — and we have seen, somewhere in the Davos forum, where Larry Fink (Laurenz Fink) was greatly appreciated — that Elon, Blackrock, yes. I think the relationship has been fixed, right? So I think we can count on Vanguard and Blackrock。

So now we're about 17.5% and 15%, so we're about 32.5%. Now add Baron and fuck him, we're at about 35%. Okay, now 35%, we need to reach 15-50%, right? We still need 15%. So how do we get 15%? Well, the retail end is 31%. If half the retail side voted in favour, we did. All right. But, but, yes, half of all retail lines have to vote in favour, not just those — you know, it's not steady, it's not steady. We will have an extremely difficult job. But make sure that you vote and that you vote in favour。

Then again, that's why I think this offer has to be very attractive. It must be so attractive. I mean, we heard a lot of Tesla retail people saying, "I don't vote. That's fair. Or, “I will, I will, vote against.” And not voting is actually an objection, and abstaining is an objection in this case. That's what I was trying to say. If you do not vote, it is actually a negative vote. Yeah, yeah, make sure you can vote。

Wow, okay. So we need — we have a lot of work to do. We'll see, we'll see, we don't know. I'm not, I'm not saying I want a Tesla merger. We will have to wait and see what the proposal is. If it's double, yeah, I'll say yes; if it's triple, okay。

He'll do it. Yeah, so for transparency, I don't own -- I don't own any SpaceX shares at this point. You don't own SpaceX stocks right now. So people have been, you know, critical of us or whatever, saying, "You guys are pushing SpaceX." I don't own any of this stock, I'm just reporting. I haven't decided if I'm gonna do anything on Friday, or, you know, if we're gonna do anything today, you have to do it quickly。

Then let me add one, let me add a risk factor. Because in that discussion with Joe Bacti, by the way, he made me hurt. You know, I think I'm actually a pretty good debater, I'm obviously a woman, I interrupt, I'm more emotional. He interrupted you. I'm sorry. I just did that. Well, anyway, I-I feel like he beat me. But he also put forward this idea about Rigid or floor. Which means, you know, once this offer is made, for example, at the level of $3 trillion, SpaceX has to make sure that Tesla's price doesn't fall, which is locked in。

i think about it, i think about it, i think about it, and i think about it, which is completely contrary to my understanding of how markets work. i mean, is there a merger announcement on the market with a collar? under this mechanism, the equity price at the time of the acquisition is between one price and another. very likely. but i just don't think elon would think like that. now again, as we have just calculated, the offer must be sufficiently attractive for them to vote in favour of tesla retail, even for other agencies。

So, say so much, I disagree with his state floor or Rigid. I don't believe it's the way Elon wanted to deal with it. If SpaceX falls, Tesla falls. I mean, he thinks it's a company. I think he's-- did you hear that mistake? When he was at that SpaceX IPO event. Yeah. So, the fact is, you know, it's one. I don't think he'd say, "Well, you know, SpaceX investors are bad luck for you, and you have to guarantee Tesla investors a floor." I don't see that. I just want to throw this out because I think I don't have enough arguments when I talk to Joe. I'm telling you, it's been a week since I've been thinking, "I should have said more, better, cooler, better." But here, I-

Herbert:

Well, I don't know why you said that. Because at the end of the day you won that debate, he changed his mind and he agreed with you. So, and he pushed -- he was so strong on that idea that his proposal was that SpaceX would buy Tesla at twice, and probably three times the market value of SpaceX. And you, and you're very good at showing this, that, you know, the number of shares in the market outside doesn't mean, or the number of authorized shares does not in any way -- you've shared data to show that there's any point. So We thought that he had changed his mind, and he retreated, and either he withdrew his strength from his faith. So I thought you were actually convinced。

Alexandra:

Good debater, I think I should go to his class, he's a real good debater, he's a smart guy。

Herbert:

So you're smart, and we -- the most important thing is that the audience has to decide for yourself, see what you think. But you got the data. Some of the data are accurate, like very, very perfectly carved in stone; some of them are made by Grok, or guess, hypothetical. And you're actually in your, in your X post, you actually set out the assumptions of a full table. You said, "This is all the assumptions I made to come to this conclusion." So you should look at her X account and look at it。

It's so exciting. I, I was so, so skeptical, when you started saying that Tesla would-- SpaceX would announce Tesla's acquisition in July, I just kept saying, "Ah, August 15, late, late, late." I couldn't establish in my head that it would be sooner than that. Now you've convinced me, because you've shared so many clues, and you've sort of pointed to that. So I was excited about the beginning of July. Somewhere between 7 and 28 is my best guess now, if it happens。

Alexandra:

If it happens somewhere between 7 and 28 July, I'll have to send you -- I'll buy you something. I'll buy you something, nothing big, we're talking about coffee。

Herbert:

We're talking about a real crown。

Alexandra:

A real crown. We'll see。

Herbert:

Okay, guys. Thank you everyone。