Mask's trillion-dollar back: 85%
Author:Omnitools
On 12 June, SpaceX issued 555.6 million shares at $135 per unit, raising $75 billion. The $29.4 billion IPO record created by Saudi Arabia and the United States in 2019 was updated twice and half, and the corporate valuation was locked at $1.77 trillion。
One figure immediately surfaced: the founder, Mask, had a net asset of over $1 trillion. For the first time in human history, trillions ofaires have emerged。
However, the S-1 document also revealed another set of figures: the company had a net deficit of $4.9 billion in 2025 and a cumulative loss of over $37 billion; and the XAI sector had a shortfall of $6.4 billion while collecting $26 billion annually in hard lease charges from Anthropic and Google. How much will the net buy-in of each dollar boost in the future, when 4.2 per cent of equities are really in the secondary market? When will those holding unlocked stocks, including 4,400 employees who are about to become millionaires, fail to hold
It's a math question。
How do trillions of lives work out
Mask became the first trillionaire with a core thrust of 1.77 trillion dollars in SpaceX valuation. But the exact composition of the “millions” figure depends on the question that is not answered directly in a S-1 document: how much economic interest does he have
TechCrunch invoked S-1 to disclose that Mask held approximately 85.1 per cent of the voting rights and that IPO would still have more than 50 per cent of the voting rights. The right to vote does not amount to an economic interest. Mask controls by holding B or C shares with super-voting rights, which are usually 10 or 20 times more than ordinary shares, while the actual economic interest ratio may be much less than 85.1 per cent。
As the exact share of the economic interest in S-1 is not disclosed in public reporting, it can only be done in a scenario. Assuming that their economic interests range between 35 and 55 per cent, the value of the $177 trillion valuation for SpaceX is as follows:
If the economic interest is 35 per cent, SpaceX ' s equity value is approximately $6195 million. Adding to their holdings approximately 13 per cent of Tesla's shares (hundreds of billions of dollars at the current market value of Tesla) and other unlisted assets (xAI, Neuralink, The Boring Company), total net assets easily crossed the $1 trillion threshold。
If economic equity is 45 per cent, SpaceX ' s equity value is approximately $796.5 billion, with total net assets falling between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion。
If the economic interest is 55 per cent, SpaceX ' s equity value is approximately $973.5 billion, with total net assets approaching $1.5 trillion。
In all three scenarios, the trillion-dollar threshold was breached. Mask's identity as the “first trillionaire” was established on the books。
BUT THE TRILLIONS ON THE BOOKS AND THE TRILLIONS AT THE DISPOSAL ARE DIFFERENT THINGS. EIGHTY-ONE PER CENT OF VOTING RIGHTS IMPLY THAT THE HIGH PROBABILITY HELD BY MASK IS SUPER-VOTING SHARES, WHICH ARE EXTREMELY MOBILE. THREE FACTORS HAVE BEEN PUT TOGETHER TO LOCK OFF LIQUIDITY: THE LOCK-IN CLAUSE PROHIBITS THE SALE OF IPOS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY HAVE BEEN SOLD; LARGE-SCALE CURTAILMENT WOULD DIRECTLY THREATEN ITS ABSOLUTE CONTROL OVER THE COMPANY; AND ONCE THE FOUNDERS HAVE SOLD OUT, THE DECLINE IN STOCK PRICES RESULTING FROM THE COLLAPSE OF MARKET CONFIDENCE MAY WELL EXCEED THE RATIO ITSELF。
Make a comparison. By 2025, Bessos had set up an estimated $8.5 billion through a gradual reduction in its Amazon stock holdings, with a reduced rhythm control of no more than 2 to 3 per cent of holdings per year. By the same pace, if Mask reduces SpaceX, the maximum available cash envelope is about $16 billion to $24 billion per year in a 45 per cent economic equity scenario. This figure, which appears to be large, represents only 1.6 to 2.4 per cent of its trillions of people. The trillions of homes in Mask could become a real cash component each year, perhaps less than 2 per cent。
This is the central paradox of the “millionaires”: numbers are real, but mobility is illusory。
4400 millionaires, and a conditional equity plan
TechCrunch quoted S-1 as revealing that some 4,400 employees were expected to become millionaires as a result of the equity scheme. Based on the lowest boundary estimates, $1 million per person with a total staff shareholding value of at least $4.4 billion. Using the median level that might be implied in S-1 (between $1.5 million and $3 million), the total value would be between $6.6 billion and $13.2 billion。
The size of the 4,400 people has brought technology to record. Facebook was listed in 2012 to create about 1,000 millionaires, and Snowflake had about 3,000 employees and a market value of about $70 billion in IPO 2020. SpaceX has a wider wealth base, which is related to its organizational structure: software companies typically support the same level of market value with hundreds of people, and SpaceX requires several times the manpower to maintain hardware manufacturing, launch operations and satellite Internet services. Per capita wealth may be lower than net software companies, but coverage is closer to the distribution logic of manufacturing。
But “millionaires” are not equivalent to “millions of cash”. Earnings are usually issued in the form of restricted stock units or stock options, and three levels must be passed from paper wealth to bank accounts。
The first level is the locking period. In the practice of IPOs in the United States, staff holding is usually locked up for 180 days, during which transactions are prohibited. After IPO 2012, some of the early employees were unable to cash their share price when it fell short, because sales were prohibited during the lockdown period. The second is the right price. In the case of equity ownership, employees are required to purchase shares at the right price at their own expense, the difference between the right price and the issue price being the real gain. The third is tax obligations. Right to action entails taxable events, federal taxes, state taxes and even alternative minimum taxes (AMTs), which may actually be well below paper figures。
Snowflake doubled the first day of stock after listing in 2020, but the employee could only start selling in batches after 180 days, with the stock price volatility exceeding 30 per cent during the period. SpaceX’s 4400 millionaires face the same time lag: The IPO pricing date is the peak of paper wealth, and real cash is to wait until the lock ends regularly, and stock prices then depend on market games for the next six months。
THE SPECIFIC FORM OF STAFF SHAREHOLDING IN THE S-1 DOCUMENT, THE RIGHT PRICE LEVEL AND THE LOCK-IN PERIODIC RULES HAVE NOT YET BEEN FULLY DISCLOSED IN PUBLIC COVERAGE. THE FASTEST AVAILABLE WINDOW OF TIME AND ACTUAL POST-TAX PAYMENTS REMAINED A FIGURE TO BE RESOLVED。
Total equity 13.11 billion, secondary market only 4.2 per cent
SpaceX ' s leverage structure is key to understanding its stock price volatility。
IPO ISSUED 555.6 MILLION SHARES AT $135, RAISED $75 BILLION AND VALUED $1.7 TRILLION. BASED ON THE REVERSE VALUATION, THE TOTAL EQUITY STOCK WAS APPROXIMATELY 131.1 BILLION UNITS (1.7 TRILLION DIVIDED BY 135). THE SHARE OF 555.6 MILLION SHARES IN NEW ISSUANCES REPRESENTS APPROXIMATELY 4.2 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL EQUITY OF 13.11 BILLION。
What does 4.2 per cent mean in circulation? The price of any stock is ultimately determined by the sale of a secondary market. When the trading pool accounts for only 4.2 per cent of total equity, a significant increase can be driven by small net purchases. In turn, when the lock ends regularly and 96 per cent of the stock is gradually released, the amount of pressure thrown is magnified。
Make a quantitative comparison. Apple's average daily turnover was approximately $12 billion, corresponding to 0.36 per cent of the total market value of approximately $3.3 trillion. If SpaceX is calculated at the same exchange rate of 0.36 per cent of the $75 billion turnover, the daily value is approximately $270 million. At 0.36 per cent of the daily turnover, the net buy-in pressure of $270 million per day could theoretically drive stock price fluctuations, but in the real market, the involvement of marketers, high-frequency transactions and arbitrage funds complicated the relationship。
It cannot be asserted directly that “a net purchase of $7.5 billion would raise equity prices by 10 per cent”. However, it can be confirmed that SpaceX ' s leverage structure gives natural elasticity to stock prices, while at the same time making it vulnerable to significant pushovers after the lock has ended periodically。
An indication of the increase in market value of circulation under a larger scenario. If equity prices rise by 10 per cent to $148.5, the market value of liquidity increases from $75 billion to $82.5 billion, an increase of $7.5 billion. If equity prices rise by 20 per cent to $162, the market value of liquidity increases to $90 billion, an increase of $15 billion. If equity prices rise by 30 per cent to $175,5, the market value of liquidity increases to $97.5 billion, an increase of $22.5 billion。
These increases represent only changes in the market value of currents and do not amount to net acquisitions required. The actual share price is determined by a combination of purchase orders from both buyers and sellers, the inventory reconciliation of market traders, the arbitrage strategy for high-frequency transactions and the silo operations of institutional investors all affect financial efficiency. However, the 4.2 per cent turnover gives a clear quantitative concept: SpaceX ' s share price is much more sensitive to funds than ordinary large capitalization。
THE REAL TEST ENDS WITH THE LOCK. WHEN 96 PER CENT OF THE 131.1 BILLION SHARES BEGAN TO BE PROGRESSIVELY RELEASED, INCLUDING THE EMPLOYEE EQUITY SCHEME, EARLY INVESTORS, AND THE LARGE SHARES HELD BY MASK HIMSELF, COULD THE RESERVOIRS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET CATCH THE FLOOD? THE S-1 DOCUMENT WARNS THAT THERE MAY BE A RISK OF FURTHER DILUTION OF EQUITY AFTER AN INVESTOR IS LISTED AND THAT THIS RISK WILL BE RELEASED CENTRALLY WHEN THE LOCK EXPIRES PERIODICALLY。
Anthropic and OpenAi, how many rich people can be if they're on the market
The 4400 millionaires of SpaceX provided a baseline. In the horizontal comparison, what would be the total value of staff holding shares if Anthropic and OpenAI were to be listed in the current private valuation
CNBC and Morningstar reports confirmed that Anthropic had completed the financing of Series H with $965 billion in valuation and that ARRs amounted to $30 billion. Forbes and Sacra reported that OpenAI valued $852 billion and annualized income of approximately $25 billion. Neither company was listed, and the ratio of staff options and the exact number of employees was not disclosed。
SETS THE CORE ASSUMPTION THAT IF TWO COMPANIES WERE TO MAKE A CURRENT PRIVATE VALUATION OF IPO, THE EMPLOYEE OPTIONS POOL WOULD ACCOUNT FOR BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PER CENT OF TOTAL EQUITY (IN THE CASE OF SILICON VALLEY UNICORN IPO). ON THIS ASSUMPTION:
Anthropic had a total staff shareholding value of approximately $96.5 billion under the 10 per cent option pool assumption and $144.8 billion under the 15 per cent assumption。
OpenAI has a total staff sharehold value of approximately $85.2 billion under the 10 per cent option pool scenario; and approximately $127.8 billion under the 15 per cent scenario。
Even under the most conservative 10 per cent option scenario, the total employee shareholding value of Anthropic and OpenAI was 22 and 19 times the minimum known value of SpaceX ($4.4 billion), respectively. This gap is due to a structural reason: out of the $177 trillion valuation of SpaceX, Mask individuals account for a very high percentage (85.1 per cent of voting rights mean that individuals still have a very large share even if economic equity is low) and the proportion of cakes distributed to employees is naturally limited. Anthropic and OpenAI, as primary AI companies, have smaller employees (about 1,200 people in OpenAI and 1,500 to 2,000 in Anthropic, estimated by public reporting), and shareholding is more dispersed。
But this is a horizontal comparison on paper. Anthropic's estimate of $965 billion corresponded to about $30 billion in ARRs and about 32 times the market rate; and OpenAI's 85.2 billion versus 25 billion in annualized income, about 34 times the PS. This multiple is much higher than SpaceX, which is about 9.8 times (1.7 trillion divided by 18 billion)。
Whether the secondary market is willing to pay the same or even higher PS multiplier for AI is an issue that has not yet been validated. The IPO of CoreWeave provides a warning that the valuation was reduced to between $23 billion and $30 billion in 2025, far below the expectations of some investors. This is due to the fact that the contradiction between high capital expenditures and low profit margins of AI-calculated leases was openly examined。
The XAI sector financial data disclosed in SpaceX S-1, however, indicate that the same contradiction exists in SpaceX ' s AI computing operations. OmniTools had previously reported that the xAI sector had earned $3.2 billion in 2025, with a loss of $6.4 billion and extrapolated about $30.8 billion in annualized capital expenditure. This data means that SpaceX collected $26 billion in annual calculator lease income from Anthropic and Google, behind a business module that is still in large deficit and with capital expenditure well above income。
If Anthropic and OpenAI were to stand in front of the IPO, the valuations that staff would see multiplied by the shareholding figures would be significant. However, cash realization in the secondary market depends on the sustainability of the PS multiplier after listing. SpaceX's 4.2 per cent flow disk story will be repeated with the AI companies, except that the main character has changed from rocket to large model。
The other side of the calculus
The long-term strength of SpaceX stock prices ultimately goes back to the question of whether AI calculates the lease income to cover losses and capital expenditures of xAI。
The S-1 document disclosed that XAI had locked in anthropic for $1.25 billion per month and Google for $920 million per month, with annualized revenues of approximately $26.04 billion. The xAI department received $3.2 billion in 2025, at a loss of $6.4 billion. In this case alone, the annualized income of $26 billion covers more than $6.4 billion in losses, and XAI ' s operating losses are not the biggest problem。
The problem is capital expenditure. OmniTools calculated annualized capital expenditure of about $30.8 billion, well above $26 billion in annualized income, with a difference of about $4.8 billion requiring external financing or SpaceX parent blood transfusion. More critically, the $26 billion annualized income is based on a static calculation of “1.25 billion plus 920 million per month”, while the terms of the contracts of Anthropic and Google, the terms of renewal and the conditions of early termination are not made public in document S-1。
SpaceX lists water resources and chips, electricity as core risks in document S-1. Capital expenditure of $30.8 billion means that xAI must continuously purchase GPUs, build data centres, consume electricity and water resources. If the calculator contracts of Anthropic and Google had shorter or earlier termination clauses, the annualized income of $26 billion was not a piece of iron。
For secondary market investors, this is a closure that must be unsolved. SpaceX ' s stock price escalation narrative relies on high growth in AI-calculated leases, but the magnitude of capital expenditure that underpins this growth implies sustained financial consumption. When 96 per cent of locked shares are released, will institutional investors continue to pay for this cycle if XAI is still in a financial position of “60 billion a year, 6.4 billion a year and 30.8 billion a year”
SpaceX's IPO is a mathematical question, and the answer is not on the day of pricing, but in the first quarter after the lock has ended。
