THE FIRST FORECAST MARKET ETF WAS SUSPENDED. WALL STREET WAS WATCHING THE BUSINESS

ORIGINAL TITLE: "FIRST FORECAST MARKET ETF SUSPENSION, WALL STREET WATCHING THE BUSINESS."
Original by Asher, Odaily Daily Planet

THE FIRST FORECAST MARKET ETF WAS NOT LAUNCHED ON THE US MARKET AS PLANNED。

EARLY THIS MONTH, DUE TO THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE UNITED STATES SEC IN FURTHER REVIEWS, THE FIRST ETF PRODUCTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST MARKET WERE NOT BROUGHT INTO EFFECT AS SCHEDULED AND THE LISTING WAS DELAYED. THE SEC REQUIRES DISTRIBUTORS TO SUPPLEMENT PRODUCT MECHANISMS AND DISCLOSURE DETAILS, IN PARTICULAR HOW SUCH PRODUCTS TRACK EVENT CONTRACTS, HOW THEY ADDRESS SETTLEMENT RISKS, AND HOW POTENTIAL EXTREME LOSSES ARE EXPLAINED TO ORDINARY INVESTORS。

ALMOST EFFECTIVE, MAY. SEC PRESS THE PAUSE BUTTON

THE FORECAST MARKET ETF IS NOT A NEW PRODUCT THAT SUDDENLY APPEARS THIS MONTH。In February this year, Roundhill Investments took the lead in submitting the relevant documents, followed by Bitwise Assembly and Granite Shares. Several issuers have similar ideas, packaging the results of real events into ETF products, allowing investors to trade the probability of events through traditional securities accounts。

The first products were initially focused on political events in the United States, including the victory of the Republican Party in the 2028 presidential election and the membership of the Senate and House of Representatives in the 2026 mid-election. Subsequently, applications were further expanded to include events driven by economic downturns, layoffs in the scientific and technological industries, commodity prices, etc., with more than 20 products awaiting trial。

In accordance with the relevant rulesTHIS TYPE OF ETF USUALLY BECOMES EFFECTIVE AUTOMATICALLY 75 DAYS AFTER ITS SUBMISSION, UNLESS THE SEC INTERVENES FOR FURTHER REVIEW。IT IS ALSO DUE TO THE FACT THAT SEVERAL DISTRIBUTORS SUBMITTED DOCUMENTS IN FEBRUARY, WHICH BECAME A CRITICAL POINT IN EARLY MAY FOR THE FIRST PROJECTED MARKET, ETF。

Rundhill had submitted an update, and planned to put ETF into effect on May 5 in the forecast market for United States presidential and congressional elections. The market would have expected that Rundhill would have been the first to launch an ETF market and that similar products from Bitwise, Granite Shares might have followed up。

BUT EVENTUALLY, BECAUSE THE US SEC WAS INVOLVED IN FURTHER SCRUTINY, THE FIRST PRODUCTS DID NOT WAIT TO BECOME AUTOMATICALLY EFFECTIVE。

The delay was not a fatal issue, but a more detailed review

FROM AMERICA'S CURRENT MOVEETF PREDICTS MARKETS MORE LIKE BEING ASKED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL EXPLANATIONS THAN BEING DIRECTLY DENIED。

IF REGULATION CONSIDERS THAT SUCH PRODUCTS CANNOT EXIST PER SE, THE MARKET MAY SEE CLEARER NEGATIVE SIGNALS. BUT NOW THE US SEC IS ACTING MORE LIKE ASKING THE ISSUER TO CLARIFY SEVERAL QUESTIONS, INCLUDING HOW THE PRODUCT OBTAINS AN EVENT CONTRACT OPENING, HOW THE BOTTOM PRICE IS FORMED, HOW THE EVENT RESULTS ARE SETTLED, HOW MUCH DAMAGE THE INVESTOR MAY HAVE TO BEAR, AND WHETHER THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS ARE CLEAR ENOUGH。

In a communication from platform X, Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, stated that SEC had decided to further review the projected market ETF, which was now more likely that regulators wanted additional verification of disclosure documents. Because of the pioneering nature of these products, once approved, they will set an important regulatory precedent for predicting the market ETF, and it is understandable that the US SEC spends more time reading。

THE US SEC IS CAUTIOUS BECAUSE IT PREDICTS THAT THE MARKET ETF AND THE TRADITIONAL ETF ARE NOT A PRODUCT。THE GENERAL INDUSTRY ETF BUYS A BASKET OF STOCKS, THE THEME IS THAT ETF BUYS A NARRATIVE OF A PARTICULAR INDUSTRY, AND BITCOIN ETF TRACKS AN ASSET PRICE. BUT IT'S NOT ASSETS THAT ETF BUYS, BUT WHETHER OR NOT SOMETHING HAPPENS。

Whether the Republicans won the 2028 presidential election, whether the Republicans controlled the Senate, whether the United States went into an economic recession, and whether there were large-scale layoffs in the science and technology industry were not traditional assets, but real events。

THE SPECIAL THING ABOUT PREDICTING MARKET ETF IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE ETFThe bottom is closer to the binary contractI DON'T KNOW. THE GENERAL INVESTOR SEES IT IN THE VOUCHER ACCOUNT AND MAY CONSIDER IT A GENERAL THEMATIC FUND, BUT IT DOES NOT DEAL WITH STOCK BASKETS OR ASSET PRICES, BUT WITH WHETHER AN EVENT EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MISJUDGED, THE LOSS MAY BE VERY DIRECT, OR EVEN CLOSE TO ZERO. IT MAY WISH TO CONFIRM WHETHER THE ISSUER CAN CLARIFY THIS STRUCTURE AND RISK。

The access window is still in place. The rules are the key

WHILE PREDICTING THAT THE MARKET ETF HAS BEEN DELAYEDMarkets are now more inclined to interpret this extension as a supplementary review than a negative regulatory shift。The ETF Store president Nate Geraci gave an optimistic judgment。

He mentioned that in a recent speech by United States SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, regulators were trying to strike a balance between regulation and innovation. Nate Geraci believes that this statement may be related to the projected market for ETFs and that such products may be launched soon。

FOR THE TIME BEING, THE AGENCY MAY BE CONCERNED WITH THE UNITED STATES SEC CHARACTERIZING THIS EXTENSION AS DISCLOSURE OR PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF WHICH REVIEW PATH THE SEC EVENTUALLY PREFERRED, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THAT THE MARKET ETF LINE DISAPPEARS WITH A SINGLE EXTENSION。

If the problem remains at the disclosure level, the first products may be on line only a little later; if regulation continues to ask about product attributes, the rhythm will slow, but it will force the industry to develop clearer rules. As long as disclosure standards, settlement requirements and investor protection boundaries become clear for the issuer, subsequent products become easier to replicate。

More importantlyInstitutions have begun to design products at different levels around the forecast market。Direct follow-up of events such as elections, recessions, layoffs has resulted in a line of investment in forecasted market platforms, trading infrastructure, market and data service providers。

EVEN WITH THE LONGER CYCLE OF ETF REVIEWS, PREDICTING MARKETS AS A FINANCIAL TOPIC HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE PRODUCT BANK BY ETF ISSUERS. IN OTHER WORDS, WALL STREET IS NOT JUST WAITING FOR A FEW ELECTIONS TO BE HELD, ETF TO BE RELEASED, BUT IS BETTING IN ADVANCE ON A NEW BUSINESS THAT "FUTURE EVENTS CAN BE TRADED."。

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