How much more can you buy on the market

Original Odaily Daily@OdailyChinaI'm not sure

Author Tink@XiaMiPPI'm not sure

Over the past two weeks, Strategy has once again increased its bitcoin with amazing force:One-week increases of over 10,000, worth over $900 million。

As a well-known long-term holder of the market, Strategy not only failed to sell as the market feared, but offered the opposite answer – a firm buy-in – against the backdrop of the continuing decline in Bitcoin prices and the collapse of its own mNAV. To date, Strategy has accumulated approximately 67.71 million bitcoin holdings, with a total value of over $50 billion, continuing to consolidate its position as one of the world ' s largestbitcoin holding institutions。

This move also led to deeper thinking in the market:How many bitcoins are really tradable on the market on such a large scale and on a continuous basis

ALTHOUGH THE THEORETICAL CEILING FOR BITCOIN IS 21 MILLION, THE ACTUAL CIRCULATION IS MUCH SMALLER. ABOUT 660,000 HAVE BEEN DUG OUT, OR 95 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL, AND ONLY ABOUT 1.04 MILLION HAVE NOT YET BEEN PRODUCED. THE CURRENT BLOCK INCENTIVE IS 3.125 BTC, WITH AN AVERAGE OF APPROXIMATELY 450 NEW UNITS PER DAY AND WILL AGAIN BE HALVED BY 2028. AT THIS PACE, THE LAST BITCOIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AROUND 2140。

However, what really determines market supply is not the new currency that is not produced, but the liquid portion of the stock。

ACCORDING TO STATISTICS, MORE THAN 30 PER CENT OF THE BITCOIN HAS NOT BEEN MOVED FOR A LONG TIME AND IS CONSIDERED A "SLEEPING BARN"; ANOTHER 20 PER CENT IS SUSPECTED TO BE PERMANENTLY LOST. IN ADDITION, THE RATIO OF INSTITUTIONS, INCLUDING LISTED COMPANIES, ETFS AND NATIONAL FUNDS, TO PUBLIC HOLDINGS HAS CONTINUED TO RISE, AND MOST OF THESE BTCS ARE OUT OF HIGH FREQUENCY CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION, THE STOCK OF BITCOIN ON THE EXCHANGE HAS FALLEN TO A FEW YEARS' LOW, MEANING THAT THE “FLOATS” AVAILABLE FOR IMMEDIATE SALE ARE SHRINKING RAPIDLY. MARKET MOBILITY IS FACING STRUCTURAL TIGHTENING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SILENT INGESTION OF WHALES AND THEIR SALE BY LONG-TERM HOLDERS。

Encryption analyst for real circulation of bitcoinMurphyThe system is combed. On the basis of this, Odaily Daily seeks to present a complete picture of the data behind this scarce narrative — market patterns may be shifting quietly when buying power continues and the availability of supplies shrinks。

Long-term holders “institutionalized hoarding” and taking over the liquidity

Long-term holders are now the most important structural force in the Bitcoin market. According to Glassnode, this group holds a total of approximately14.35 millionBTC, IN EXCESS OF SUPPLY IN CIRCULATIONSeventy percent。

FURTHER DISMANTLING. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 153 BTC "NON-ZERO BALANCES" IN BUSINESS, THE CORE OF WHICH IS29 listed companiesIn total, 108.82 million bitcoins were held (54,331 of which were held by either). And of the 29 listed companies, Strategy owns one67.1 000BTC, THE RATIO IS HIGH62 per centI don't know。

If the URL (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data are combined, Strategy's intensive buyout is precisely the most dense area in the BTC chip structure, concentrated in roughly between $80,000 and $18,000. This means that Strategy does play an important role in the large-scale change of hands between the high-level chips. And that's why MSTRs and ETFs are considered to be the driving force of the cow cycle。

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ON OCTOBER 6, ONLY 67 BUSINESSES HAD BTC'S NON-ZERO BALANCE, AND WITH BTC'S DEEP RETURN, THE NUMBER SUDDENLY SURGED, AND THERE ARE NOW 153. DOES THAT MEANIn the down-price process, are new enterprise-level players sneaking in

IN ADDITION TO BTC, WHICH IS AN ENTITY ENTERPRISE RESERVE, TO DATE THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 1311,000 BTCS HELD IN SPOT BITCOIN ETFS. OF THESE, THE TOP THREE WERE: ABOUT 777,000 IN BELED, ABOUT 202,000 IN FOUN AND ABOUT 167,000 IN GREY。

In addition, the total amount of bitcoin held by Governments is approximately 61.55 million. Among them, the United States Government ranked first with 32.5 million; the second was the Chinese Government, which had approximately 190,000 BTCs. It should be noted that the Chinese Government has never officially disclosed the relevant warehouses, and this data is mainly from Glassnode, whose statistical calibre and actual situation remain uncertain。

In addition, the amount of bitcoin held in excess of 10 years without any movement is about340.9 millionI DON'T KNOW. THIS PART OF THE ASSET INCLUDES BOTH THE COLD WALLETS OF THE EARLY EXCHANGE AND, IN THE TRUE SENSE, THE “BELIEF” OG; BUT IT IS EQUALLY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF IT HAS IN FACT WITHDRAWN FROM THE CIRCULATION SYSTEM FOR REASONS SUCH AS THE LOSS OF ITS PRIVATE KEY, THE DEATH OF ITS HOLDER, AND SO ON, INCLUDING ABOUT 1 MILLION BTCS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED TO BELONG TO CHINA。

HOW MANY OF THE BTCS THAT HAVE BEEN DUG OUT ARE ACTUALLY "NOT BOUGHT"

Murphy then provided a more detailed summary of this data. Since Bitcoin does not have a “forget passwords” function like traditional bank accounts, it relies entirely on private keys to prove ownership. Once the private key has been lost or cannot be accessed, the corresponding bitcoin will never be moved or spentAlthough they are still recorded on the block chain, in economic terms they are tantamount to permanent destruction。

IF CIRCULATION IS BROKEN DOWN BY DATE RANGE, EACH DATE RANGE REFERS TO THE CREATION DATE OF UTXO. SO, AS WE CAN SEE, THE CUMULATIVE PEAK OF THE BTC, WHICH WAS BORN IN 2010-2014, WAS IN DECEMBER 2014 AND HAS DECLINED RAPIDLY SINCE THEN; UNTIL JANUARY 2019, THERE WAS ALMOST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE。

These ancient BTCs, with the exception of holders of absolute faith, must have been largely lost. According to Murphy's estimate, this ratio is at least 50%, i.e. at least10.6 millionOver。

THERE IS ALSO A SET OF "THE KING OF KINGS" COINS WHOSE CREATION DATE IS 2009. AFTER DECEMBER 2011, IT BARELY MOVED, AND TODAY IT HAS 1.08 MILLION BTCS。

In other words, at least2.14 MILLION BTCS, may be in fact permanently unmoveable。

Real flows of supplies

If fromExchange balancesAccording to this most direct indicator, there are currently approximately bitcoin in exchange wallets249,000This trend has been declining steadily and has reached a new low since 2023。

In other words, while the demand side is constantly “institutionalized”, the supply side is shrinkingThe bitcoin pool currently available for trading is also becoming smaller and smaller。