Trump, True Social, goes into the forecast market, competes with Polymark
When Truth Predict was launched, Polymarket was planning to return to the United States market。
When Truth Predict was launched, Polymarket was planning to return to the United States market。
Written by Joel Khalili, Connected magazine
Photo by Saoirse, Foresight News
True Social is a social media platform by US President Donald Torrand to popularize the majority of his family's shareholdings, which is launching a gaming service based on encrypted currency, which will compete directly with the popular Polymarket。
This new service, called "Truth Predict", will allow the True Social users to place their principal in encrypted currency, predicting the outcome of a given event, covering sports events, political campaigns and even economic changes. Truth Social is run by the Trump Media & Technology Group (Trump Media & Technology Group, TMTG), a listed company。
Often, individual forecasts take the form of binary questions, such as: "Will Taylor Swift release new original songs by October 2?" Or "Will Barcelona Win the European Championship League?" I don't know
In the run-up to the United States elections in 2024, the forecast market entered the mainstream for the first time. Its supporters claim that such markets are a better alternative to traditional polls and a more efficient “source of truth”。
In a statement, Devin Nunes, Chief Executive Officer of the Trump Media and Science Group, said: "Through the Truth Predict, we are promoting the democratization of information so that American citizens can use group wisdom to translate freedom of expression into actionable forward-looking judgement. I don't know
True Predict was launched in cooperation with the Encoded Currency Exchange & nbsp; Cripto.com associated institutions. Currently, the projected market area is dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently completed financing with high valuations of billions of dollars。
Polymarket was planning to return to the U.S. market when Truth Predict was launched -- The platform had been forced out of the United States under Joe Biden. In 2022, the United States regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), charged Polymarket with operating an unregistered derivatives trading market, with which Polymarket reached a settlement and withdrew from the United States market as one of the terms of the settlement。
In November 2024, the residence of Shayne Coplan, Chief Executive Officer of Polymarket, was raided by the FBI. At that time, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating whether the platform had violated the ban in the settlement agreement and continued to accept United States residents ' offers (Coplan was not arrested or charged)。
The situation changed when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Under the Trump administration, the regulatory bodies have discontinued proceedings against the well-known encrypted money companies, and the Ministry of Justice has instructed prosecutors to "open their eyes" for some of the money-related offences。
In July of the same year, Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice had concluded its investigation into Polymarket and that no charges had been brought, clearing the way for the company to return to the United States market。
Zach Hamilton, founder of the encrypted money start-up company Sarcophagus, said in an interview with Connect: "If one is to find a key reason for returning to the United States, it must be the government of Trump -- and, frankly, Donald Trump himself. I don't know
Indeed, prior to the launch of True Predict, the Trump family had economic stakes in the United States’ forecast of market developments。
In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser; in August of the same year, Polymarket received investment in venture capital 1789, while Donald Trump Jr. was a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined the advisory board of Polymarket。
Just as Polymarket sought to return to the United States market, the Trump family established links to the platform. This was closely followed by critics who considered that the investment might constitute a conflict of interest. Critics claim that the deal created an opportunity for the Trump family to benefit from policy changes driven by the Trump Government。
Jeff Hauser, Executive Director of the Revolving Door Project, a body dedicated to monitoring the behaviour of elected officials, said: "No one would say that in capitalist countries, the President's family cannot engage in normal capitalism. But Polymarket is in the midst of intense political controversy, so the investment reflects a major conflict of interest - And such conflicts could have been avoided. I don't know
The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, responded in a statement to Connect: "The President and his family have never, and will never, involve a conflict of interest. I don't know
To date, neither Polymarket nor Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTTG) nor 1789 capital has responded to requests for comment。
The introduction of True Predict could also lead to direct competition among different branches of the Tramp family business empire。
Chris Perkins, the managing partner of the Encrypted Money Windsor CoinFund, said, "As far as the wind is concerned, many of us are reluctant to invest in competing projects, and we will try to avoid this as much as possible -- we will try to find the "goods winner." I don't know
In fact, companies associated with the Trump family are already operating competing Bitcoin Treasury companies; in June 2025, there was also a dispute over which enterprise had the right to launch an "official" Trump-name encrypted wallet。
📅Published：2025/10/29 12:54
🔄Updated：2025/10/29 12:54
🔗Source：Foresight News