The countdown of the British Vaders: super-predictments are almost unsuspecting, but Wall Street's top five concerns

Original by: Dragon Sword

Original source:See you on Wall Street

For the British financial season, the most important is no longer the numbers themselves。

On 18 May, the team of United States and silver securities analysts, Vivek Arya, released the British Vida Q1 financial foresight report, which will be released on Wednesday, 20 May, United States time。

IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HISTORICAL PATTERN OF THE LAST TEN QUARTERS OF WEIDA, ACTUAL RECEIPTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PER CENT ABOVE MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES. THE MANAGEMENT ' S PREVIOUS GUIDANCE ON THE COLLECTION OF F1Q27 BATTALION WAS $78 BILLION, WHICH LED TO THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE ACTUAL COLLECTION RATE FELL BETWEEN $83 BILLION AND $84 BILLION, COMPARED TO THE CURRENT UNANIMOUS MARKET PROJECTION OF $78.7 BILLION。

In other words, “super-expected” is almost nailed. However, according to analysts, it is the following five issues that really led to market neurology after the release of the financial statements。

Cash returns: Can Yin Weidar’s “sting” change

This was the subject of the most ink to report, and it was the central reason why they considered the long-term discount on the Ingweida valuation。

Young Weida is currently the company with the largest market value on the Standard 500 index, accounting for 8.3 per cent of the index weight, exceeding the historical peaks of Apple (7.9 per cent) and Microsoft (7.2 per cent). The problem, however, is that Britain's shareholders' returns are not commensurate with their size。

The data is very clear: 2022-2025The return on free cash flows (Red + Repurchase) averaged 47 per cent, compared to an average of 80 per cent for similar companies in the same periodEven Britain's own average for an earlier decade is 80 per cent。

In the meantimeIn Weida, the current rate of dividends is only 0.02 per cent, compared to an average of 0.89 per cent for peers。In equity gains funds, only 16 per cent of the funds hold Weida, while Microsoft is 57 per cent and apples 32 per cent。

Where's the money? Analysts point out that Ying Weidar invested a lot of money in ecosystems — OpenAI, Anthropic, Science and Technology Partnership. These investments were controversial from the outside world, and there were voices of “revolving finance”, i.e., the money that Yveida lent to its customers, who then took it to buy Yveida's chips。

How much is the valuation discount? According to the data, the expected market gain in British Columbia in 2026/2027 was 26/19 times higher than the average for the other members of the “G-7” was 49/42 times, with a discount of nearly 50 per cent。

More specifically, analysts predict that the combined free cash flow of Britain 2026+27 will exceed $43 billion in 2026+27, higher than the total of Apple and Microsoft of approximately $375 billion. However, the market value of Weida is about $5.46 trillion, about 28 per cent below the $7.5 trillion combined of Apple and Microsoft。

The analysts believe that, if Young Weida were to increase its share and buy back, it would be likely to attract more long-line money in favour of returns and reduce the discount on valuation, while at the same time dispelling doubts about “revolving finance”. They classified this change as a “potential catalyst for the second half of the year”。

Vera Rubin: When will the next-generation chip come

Now the main product of Yvette is the Blackwell series. The market is concerned: when will the next Vera Rubin platform officially go up

The Bank ' s judgement was in the second half of 2026。Vera Rubin (design R200) shares the “Oberon” frame structure with Blackwell Ultra using a 3-nam power builder process, which results in relatively smooth product switching and limited expected impacts on Māori rates。

More closely, Vera Rubin Ultra (design VR 300) will be launched in the second half of 2027, when a completely new “Kyber” hanger structure will be introduced, while the ratio of high bandwidth memory (HBM) to cost will be further increased。

The market would also like to hear from the press conference the latest version of the " trillions of billions of dollars in revenue forecast" — would it not be updated this time that it had given the prospect of a cumulative profit of $1 trillion for 2025-2027, of which LPU (language processing unit), CPU and Vera Rubin Ultra have not yet been included

Māori rate: can 75% of the line hold

Māori rates are one of the core underpinnings of the British Wida valuation。

Analysts have determined that in the short term, the product transition Māori rate is relatively stable as Vera Rubin follows Blackwell ' s hangar structure. In the medium to long term, however, the increased share of HBM memory costs is a continuing source of pressure。

The Bank has no objection to consistent market expectations indicating that the British Weida Māori rate will fluctuate between 74 and 75 per cent, but emphasizes that any over-expected Māori rate performance will be a positive catalyst。

HOW WILL THE AAA MARKET SCALE FORECAST BE UPDATED

THE BANK HAD PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED A “BILLIONS OF DOLLARS” PROJECTION FRAMEWORK FOR THE US$225-2027 AI MARKET. IN THIS FINANCIAL STATEMENT, THE MARKET IS CONCERNED ABOUT WHETHER THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED, PARTICULARLY BY INCORPORATING THREE NEW GROWTH POINTS NOT PREVIOUSLY ACCOUNTED FOR:

1. LPU (LANGUAGE PROCESSING UNIT) RACK
2. Vera CPU(IN ENGLISH)
3. Vera Rubin Ultra

The bank expects thatBY 2030, THE TOTAL MARKET SIZE OF THE AI ACCELERATOR WILL BE APPROXIMATELY US$ 1.17 TRILLION, AND THE SHARE OF THE MARKET IN BRITAIN WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 68 TO 70 PER CENT。

SPECIFICALLY, THE BRITISH WEIDA ACCELERATOR PROJECT IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE FROM $102.2 BILLION IN 2024 TO $800 BILLION IN 2030, FROM $5 BILLION TO $80.1 BILLION IN AMD OVER THE SAME PERIOD, AND FROM $9.3 BILLION TO $18.19 BILLION。

IS THE COMPETITIVE THREAT OF GOOGLE TPU AND CPU EXAGGERATED

In recent times, there has been a saying in the market that, as AI enters the age of “Agentic AI”, CPU will be more important than GPU, and the moat in Inweida is threatened。

The bank expressly disagreed with this and gave two reasons:

FirstThe "Vera CPU" self-studyed by Weiday will be exposed at the upcoming Computex Congress, whose competitiveness in the independent CPU market cannot be underestimated。

SecondIn the Blackwell and TPU clusters currently deployed on a large scale, the ratio of CPU to GPU is 1:2, which is not consistent with the narrative that Smart AI needs more CPU。

The conclusion is that, although the CPU market is large, there are many competitors (x86 and ARM structures have strong rivals) and that the dominance of Yvette in the GPU/AI accelerator area is difficult to shake in the short term. It is expected that by 2030, Weida will maintain about 70 per cent of its share in the total AI searchable market of over $1.7 trillion。

Valuation: “Tech 1” with 50% discount

Finally back to valuation. Using a set of data, the report points directly to the current valuation contradiction in British Wida。

In terms of the expected market gain in CY26/27, it was 26/19 times greater in England, while Mag-7 averaged 49/42 times more - a discount of nearly 50 per cent。

In EV/FCF (Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow), it was 28 times 20 times greater in England and 83/59 times more in Mag-7 - a discount of over 66 per cent。

In PEG (relative earnings growth ratio), it was 0.41 times greater in England, 2.61 times more in Mag-7, and more than 1.3 times more in the GTP。

THE BANK MAINTAINS A “BUY-IN” RATING AT A TARGET PRICE OF $320, WHICH IS BASED ON A 28-FOLD (CUT-OFF) CY27 EXPECTED MARKET GAIN AND IS AT A MEDIAN OF 25-56 TIMES THE HISTORICAL VALUATION RANGE IN ENGLAND。