MORGAN STANLEY'S HEAD IS ONLY A WEEK ON THE MARKET FOR BITCOIN ETF: COUNTERVAILING GOLD, INSTITUTIONAL SILO SIGNAL

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WHAT IS THIS ETF

On April 8Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, code: MSBTIT BECAME THE FIRST SPOT BITCOIN ETF IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES TO BE ISSUED BY LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THEIR OWN NAME。

The Fund is hosted by Coinbase as an encrypted money custodian, while the Melon Bank in New York is responsible for cash and administration。The central competitive advantage lies in its 0.14 per cent annual rate。THIS IS THE LOWEST OF ALL AVAILABLE BITCOIN ETFS IN THE U.S. MARKETLess than 0.25 per cent for Belet IBIT, 0.15 per cent for Greyscale Mini BTC and 0.20 per cent for Bitwise。

Summarizing Morgan Stanley: This is one of the top investment banks and financial service companies in the United States, founded in New York in 1935; its market value is about $180 billionONE OF THE G-SIBSWITH GOLDMAN SACHS, MORGAN CHASE, AND THE BANK OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AT THE TOP OF WALL STREET, IPO UNDERWRITING, M & AS CONSULTANTS, STOCKBROKERS, ETC. HAVE LONG BEEN AMONG THE TOP THREE GLOBALLY。

Inflow data from the first week of the market

On April 8th, the first day on the marketMSBT NET INFLOWS RECORDED $30.6 MILLIONThe trade volume is about $34 million, and the hand exchange is over 1.6 million. It is worth noting that, on that day, the entire market net outflow of Bitcoin ETF was $9.3.9 million, that both FBTC and ARK 21 Shares lost significant blood, and that only Belet IBIT and MSBT reverses recorded positive inflows. In other words, it's done in the context of the ETF and the whole market bleedingInverse goldI don't know. On April 9th, as news of the US-Iraq ceasefire talks boosted the mood in the market, the US-Iraq ceasefire talks began to riseTHE MARKET-WIDE BITCOIN ETF SHIFTED TO NET INFLOWS OF $304 MILLION。MSBT CONTINUED TO RECORD A NET INFLOW OF $14.9 MILLION, RANKING THIRD AMONG ALL ETFS AT THAT DATE, AFTER BELET IBIT ($269.3 MILLION) AND FBTC ($53.3 MILLION)。

ENTERING THE NEXT WEEK (MONDAY, APRIL 13), THE MARKET IS AGAIN WEAK, AND THE WHOLE MARKET BITCOIN ETF IS BACK IN NET OUTFLOW. ON TUESDAY, APRIL 14TH, THE SITUATION WAS SIMILAR: FUADA SINGLE-DAY OUTFLOWS AMOUNTED TO $229.2 BILLION, NET MARKET-WIDE OUTFLOWS OF $291 MILLIONAND MSBT IS RECORDING $6.28 MILLION ON THE WAY, with Belet IBIT, Bitwise BITB and listed as the only three that remained in net inflows at that date, only the main bitcoin ETF。

Cumulative data: Cumulative net inflows since inception of $37.5 millionAUM APPROXIMATELY $6.384 MILLION(Morgan Stanley caliber), SoSoValue data show $7.01 million, with approximately 960 BTCs held in hold, with market values of 0.57 per cent relative to the NAV premium, with market returns +6.86 per cent since its inception and NAV returns +6.24 per cent。

Behind the data, the agency is building a warehouse at the low end of Bear City

MSBT INFLOW DATA HAS A VERY CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE CURRENT MARKET CONTEXT。

BITCOIN HAS RETURNED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE OCTOBER 2025, WHEN IT REACHED ITS HISTORIC HIGH POINT OF $126,198 AND IS CURRENTLY CONVULSING BETWEEN $70,000 AND $75,000. THE HIGHER POINT HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN BY ABOUT 44 PER CENT. THROUGHOUT THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF 2026, UNITED STATES SPOT BITCOIN ETF EXPERIENCED FOUR MONTHS OF NET OUTFLOW, MARKET MOODS WERE DEPRESSED AND THE DIASPORA WAS LEAVING。

BUT WHAT IS THE AGENCY DOING? MSBT DATA PROVIDE A GOOD EXAMPLE。

First of all, Morgan Stanley has been preparing for this product for about 18 months in terms of timingIn the end, bitcoin was introduced at a point higher than ever before, and the market was generally pessimistic, rather than on top of the cattle market。AND SECOND, THIS ETF HAS A CONTINUOUS NEGATIVE INFLOW AT A TIME OF GENERAL PESSIMISM IN THE MARKET. ON 13 AND 14 APRIL, THE MARKET-WIDE BITCOIN ETF MADE SIGNIFICANT NET OUTFLOWS (UP TO $291 MILLION A DAY), BUT MSBT REMAINED POSITIVE。

THIS MEANS THAT THE MONEY FLOWING INTO MSBT IS NOT TRANSFERRED FROM OTHER ETFS BECAUSE OF THE HEAT MONEY。

THIRDLY, MORGAN STANLEY'S IN-HOUSE RECOMMENDATION STANDS AT 4 PER CENT. THE BANK HAD PREVIOUSLY ADVISED CLIENTS TO SET THE BITCOIN ALLOCATION BETWEEN 0 AND 4 PER CENT. WITH MSBT ON LINE, THE CONSULTANTS HAVE A DIRECT TOOL WITH THE LOWEST INTERNAL RATES. IF MORGAN STANLEY'S ABOUT 16,000 WEALTH ADVISORS ARE ACTIVELY PROMOTING THE ALLOCATION OF HIGH NET VALUE CLIENTS$7 trillion in customer assets managed, even with minimal redistributionThis will bring with it hundreds of millions of sustained inflows. Bloomberg, ETF, analyst, Eric Balchunas, evenMSBT IS PROJECTED TO REACH $5 BILLION IN ONE YEAR。

Goldman Sachs is ready to enter

FINALLY, ONLY SIX DAYS AFTER MSBT WAS LISTEDOn April 14, Goldman Sachs announced his application for the issuance of the first bitcoin ETF in his history, a large American bank that went down after Morgan Stanley.  

But Goldman Sachs' products are different from MSBT. This fund, known as Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, is based on the Reserved Call strategythe goal is to generate sustained premium gains by selling options while holding a bitcoin opening. according to the application process, it is expected to be officially listed at the earliest from the end of june to the beginning of july 2026.  

The Fund allocates at least 80 per cent of its net assets to the Bitcoin Plug Tool, including spot bitcoin ETP, related options and Bitcoin ETP index options, while using the reserve to see the increase option strategy to generate monthly returns. The method of operation is that the ratio of options sold by the Fund is adjusted dynamically between 40% and 100% of the bitcoin openings. This inter-zone design allows the Fund to maintain a premium on options in cross-board or mildly rising markets, but when the Bitcoin rises, the Fund ' s performance will lag behind the net spot ETF because of the capping of the gains.  

In short, it's a..Structure of “part of upper space for stabilization of cash flow”• Distribution of options premiums to holders on a regular basis, suitable for investors who wish to participate in the Bitcoin narrative, but who value the stabilization of cash flows more than full price increases. Pembo ETF analyst Eric Balchunas therefore calls his play “Boomer Candy”, tailored for traditional institutional investors who want to get a bitcoin bonus and who can't stand the volatility。

Goldman Sachs' entrance immediately led to a market-wide one-day inflow of $411.5 billion. In other wordsThere is no need to panic in Bear City, and the Wall Street Agency has already started a grouping。

Conclusions

MSBT'S FIRST WEEK ON THE MARKET, THE NUMBERS DON'T SEEM TO RUSH IN. THE CUMULATIVE INFLOW OF $37.5 MILLION IS NEGLIGIBLE IN THE FACE OF THE 55 BILLION VOLUME OF BELET IBIT. BUT A HUNDRED-YEAR-OLD AGENCY THAT MANAGES $7 TRILLION IN WEALTH, ENTERING AT THE LOWEST RATE EVER AND RELYING ON 16,000 CONSULTANTS TO KEEP PUSHING HIGH NET WORTH CUSTOMERS, IN A CONTEXT OF A 44 PER CENT RETURN OF BITCOIN, EXTREMELY PESSIMISTIC MARKET SENTIMENT, IS VERY IMPORTANT IN ITSELF. FOR READERS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTSTHE WEEKLY INFLOW OF MSBT DATA WILL THEN BE AN IMPORTANT WINDOW TO OBSERVE WALL STREET'S TRUE ATTITUDE。